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LMT · Lockheed Martin Corporation

Trust-weighted public proof page for LMT. See which authors support it, which ticker theses it belongs to, and how thesis calls have performed.

Opportunity
3190 / 100
Current score
57.19
Thesis calls
135
Active decisions
118

Recent proof-backed thesis calls

Public preview of asset-level thesis calls linked to source content, observed prices, and outcomes.

Systematic literature review argues AAM/eVTOL high-density operations are blocked by underdeveloped corridor design, operational management, and separation standards; proposes unified frameworks/taxonomies. Market implication: commercialization timeline and unit economics depend less on airframe novelty and more on airspace integration standards, UTM/ATM software, navigation/surveillance, and certification/regulatory alignment.

Mentioned: Jun 3, 2026, 12:00 AM EDTConviction: 48 / 100
Source: Corridor Design and Separation Definition in Advanced Air Mobility: Systematic Literature Review
Unknown authoropen

Post argues defense stocks are at/near a bottom and set up for a multi-period upcycle because recent conflicts are driving higher defense budgets, with incremental funding skewing toward emerging technologies such as drones and counter-drone. It uses a historical analogy (Billy Mitchell/battleship-to-airpower shift) to suggest technology transitions can rapidly re-rate the winners and obsolete legacy platforms.

Mentioned: Jun 30, 2026, 11:17 AM EDTConviction: 35 / 100
Source: We're Calling the Bottom on Defense Stocks

Paper proposes SURGE, a contrastive (InfoNCE) relational-geometry knowledge distillation method to make SAR ship-detection models much lighter while retaining/improving accuracy. If reproducible and productized, it is a practical catalyst for real-time/onboard SAR analytics (satellites, UAVs, maritime ISR), shifting value toward edge-deployable inference stacks and SAR data/analytics vendors. The investable mechanism is faster/cheaper ship-detection at the edge → more tasking, higher utilization

Mentioned: Jun 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EDTConviction: 45 / 100
Source: Lightweight SAR Ship Detection via Contrastive Distillation

Transcript is fragmented, but the core takeaway is a geopolitical backdrop that could keep Middle East-related energy risk premia elevated ("energy volatility persists"). Mentions a US-UAE 2009 nuclear/MOU framework (IAEA inspections) and commentary attributed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio around ASEAN, implying skepticism about MOUs and a prolonged negotiation/instability timeline. Actionable angle: sustained oil/gas volatility rather than a single directional call.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 12:54 PM EDTConviction: 33 / 100
Source: Energy Volatility Persists in Middle East

Segment highlights: (1) Middle East strikes pause; continued Red Sea shipping attacks/blockade risk. (2) Interview with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on inclusive AI and rising competition from China’s AI research base. (3) Mentions “SpaceX Starship test flight since going public,” but SpaceX is not a plausibly tradable public equity; exclude as a tradable ticker.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 12:29 PM EDTConviction: 56 / 100
Source: Bloomberg This Weekend | Jensen Huang Exclusive Interview, White House Correspondents’ Dinner Redo
Steve Eismanyoutubeopen

Episode highlights a perceived inflection in the “AI capex” narrative: Google materially raised AI capex guidance (~$205B referenced), reported negative free cash flow, and the stock sold off (~-7%), framed as an early sign of an AI capex “reckoning.” Tesla also sold off (~-14.5%). Mentions earnings/updates across GE Vernova, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Moody’s, Blackstone, ServiceNow, plus IBM/Intel, and a discussion on whether bank exposure makes sense alongside heavy AI exposure.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTConviction: 56 / 100
Source: Google's Negative Cash Flow and the AI Capex Reckoning | The Weekly Wrap

A vague social post speculating about imminent military action involving Iran/IRGC (no specific event confirmation). Actionability is low due to lack of concrete details, timing certainty, or named assets; but it maps to a common short-horizon risk-off playbook (oil/defense up; airlines/risk assets down).

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:28 PM EDTConviction: 36 / 100
Source: Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort 48m So we think bombs away at 4:01pm ET or is there a courtesy one hour lull perio...

Bloomberg Open Interest segment highlights: sharp Big Tech selloff (~$800B), Intel positioned as an AI “bright spot” (turnaround/foundry/AI infra demand but capex risk), renewed Trump tariff agenda (trade/USMCA/forced-labor policy) raising supply-chain and inflation uncertainty, heightened geopolitics (threats vs Iran), and a near-term catalyst stack (Fed decision + Big Tech earnings). Also mentions: Albertsons downgrade, Oracle target increase, and SGX expansion strategy.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 12:47 PM EDTConviction: 50 / 100
Source: Investors on Edge: Tech Woes, Trump's Tariffs & The Fed | Open Interest 7/24/2026

Report: US officials are considering wider military attacks on Iran; CENTCOM says it has conducted a 13th consecutive night of strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in/near the Strait of Hormuz. This raises near-term geopolitical risk premia (energy, shipping, defense) and risk-off hedging demand, while pressuring oil-sensitive cyclicals (airlines) if crude spikes.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 10:33 AM EDTConviction: 56 / 100
Source: US Considers Wider Attacks on Iran

Content discusses UN Secretary-General candidates addressing the Iran war risk and potential crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global oil/shipping chokepoint). This is primarily a geopolitical-risk headline: the most tradable implication is tail-risk of energy price spikes and shipping disruptions; absent concrete policy actions or timeline, it’s more “risk framing” than a direct catalyst.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 8:41 AM EDTConviction: 48 / 100
Source: UN Secretary-General Candidates on Iran War, Keeping the Peace

Snippet suggests potential escalation in US–Iran tensions with possible US targeting of IRGC-related sites (naval bases, missile production, C2) and mention of Red Sea/Yemen long-range missile sites. Market relevance: geopolitical risk premium for energy and shipping routes; potential tailwinds for defense names; risk to shipping/logistics if Red Sea threat persists.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 7:32 AM EDTConviction: 57 / 100
Source: Red Sea Becomes New Choke Point in US-Iran Conflict

A highly macro/geopolitical assertion dump (China decoupling, Iran escalation, tariffs return, Europe downturn, Canada hit on USMCA, Taiwan risk) with no data, timing, or implementation details. Actionable only as a rough risk-on/off regime tilt toward US defense/energy and away from China/EU/Taiwan-exposed assets.

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM EDTConviction: 44 / 100
Source: Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort 8h Right on schedule. Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort Jul 18 We’re decoupling f...

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