Mike Schroepfer @schrep May 20, 2022 Nobody can predict what is going to happen over the next 12 months but we haven'...
Mike Schroepfer warns that a severe tech downturn like 2000 could be possible over the next ~12 months. This thesis recommends a defensive posture: reduce exposure to high-duration growth and broad tech proxies that would likely de-rate in a pronounced tech drawdown.
Linked assets
Key tickers to consider in the context of this defensive stance: ARKK (active, high-growth/innovation ETF), QQQ (liquid large-cap growth/tech proxy), and XLK (direct US tech sector exposure).
ARKK is an actively managed exchange-traded fund seeking long-term growth by investing in companies expected to benefit from disruptive innovation.
High-duration/speculative growth tends to be most sensitive to risk-off and funding tightening, matching the implied startup-cycle concern.
The composition and weighting of the securities portion of a portfolio deposit are also adjusted to conform to changes in the index.
Liquid proxy for large-cap growth/tech; likely to reflect broad tech de-rating if thesis plays out.
Direct US tech sector exposure; aligns with thesis of tech-specific downturn risk.
Source proof
Source proof: Strong source proof | 3 extracted claims | 3 directional assets | 1 supporting author | 1 successful tracked leg | headline-like title review
Primary source: a May 20, 2022 social post from Mike Schroepfer arguing that a “real bad tech downturn” hasn’t happened since 2000 and that 2022+ could resemble a severe tech drawdown. Related posts include an October 4, 2021 apology for Facebook service outages (operational incident) and several low-information personal or thematic posts about energy, construction, and AI power demand. The core signal is a high-level macro/sector caution on tech risk over the next ~12 months.
A personal endorsement tweet by Mike Schroepfer praising Sara Guo and Matt Vernal as investors/operators. No companies, sectors, catalysts, or investable assets are mentioned.
Post argues that per-capita AI compute usage will likely expand massively over coming years (analogous to 60x growth in battery capacity over 20 years), implying we are early in real-world AI deployment. This supports a secular AI infrastructure buildout thesis (chips, foundry, networking, servers, data-center power/thermal, hyperscalers).
Very low-information social post praising SemiAnalysis for adding “signal” and linking to an external URL; no market-relevant claims, catalysts, or tickers mentioned in the text.
Personal reflection on a WWII veteran’s sacrifice; no market, sector, policy, or company-specific information.
Post claims a report shows a construction/build methodology with fewer parts yields materially lower electrical equipment cost (~65%) and installation labor (~90%) plus better performance. No company, product, sector, or project type is explicitly identified (link not provided/parsable here), so conclusions are necessarily thematic rather than ticker-specific.
Non-informational congratulatory message; no market, macro, sector, or company-specific content to derive an actionable thesis.
Post contains only a generic phrase (“Let’s go!”) and a shortened link with no visible context. Without being able to open the link or see the underlying content, there’s no actionable market information to extract.
Post claims AI will require substantially more electricity and frames that as an opportunity to accelerate deployment of “cheap clean energy.” Mentions a “deceptively simple machine” that is cheap/easy to manufacture, but provides no specifics (technology, company, timeline), limiting direct tradability.
Supporting authors
Single-author signal: Mike Schroepfer (@schrep). Supporting related posts provide context (operational outage, thematic commentary) but do not introduce new, specific tradable catalysts.
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Recommended strategy: sell or reduce exposure to high-duration speculative growth and broad/sector tech ETFs to position defensively against a potential large tech drawdown over the next year.