Sravan Kundojjala @SKundojjala Aug 12, 2022 Semiconductor foundry performance in 2Q22. Thread. Except for Intel, all ...
Sravan Kundojjala’s Aug 12, 2022 thread summarizes semiconductor foundry revenue performance in 2Q22. Most foundries reported strong year-over-year growth while Intel was a negative outlier, supporting a relative-long stance on foundries versus a short/underweight view on Intel based on near-term revenue momentum dispersion.
Linked assets
TSM (+36.7% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth), UMC (+41.6%), GFS (+23.0%), SMIC (+41.6% with geopolitical/regulatory risk), and INTC (-53.8% decline in foundry performance).
Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics.
Explicitly cited +36.7% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; relative strength vs INTC per post.
Explicitly cited -53.8% in 2Q22 foundry performance; negative outlier vs peers.
Explicitly cited +23.0% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; supports relative momentum thesis.
Explicitly cited +41.6% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; strong reported quarter.
SMIC is a publicly traded equity.
Explicitly cited +41.6% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; higher risk due to geopolitics/regulation.
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Source proof: Strong source proof | 6 extracted claims | 5 directional assets | 1 supporting author | 1 successful tracked leg | headline-like title review
The original thread compiles reported 2Q22 foundry revenue figures across multiple vendors and highlights that, except for Intel, the covered foundries showed year-over-year revenue growth. The post is presented as comparative fundamental datapoints rather than an explicit trade recommendation.
Post claims Intel delivered a “seventh consecutive beat” in 2Q26, says semiconductor demand remains far ahead of supply, and that Intel is finally raising capex (2026 capex from $18B to >$20B; 2027 “significantly above”). Also asserts ASML EUV output will grow ~30% for the next two years. Actionability: moderate—clear capex and supply/demand assertions with obvious ticker linkages (INTC, ASML), but lacks detail on margins/FCF impact, timing, and product mix.
Post highlights STMicro (STM) 2Q26 results and guidance: accelerating recovery and AI-datacenter driven upside, with datacenter targets “2x vs 1Q26,” improving revenue and expanding gross margin, plus upbeat next-quarter guide. Actionable primarily as a near-term fundamental momentum/earnings-guide strength signal for STM.
Post summarizes Texas Instruments (TXN) 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guide, highlighting above-seasonal revenue growth, margin expansion, and a favorable inventory/capacity position that could enable share gains as growth broadens from industrial/data center into automotive.
Post summarizes TSMC 2Q25 results: revenue beat high-end of guidance despite FX, gross margin near high-end of guidance, operating margin above high-end, and CapEx up +51% YoY. This is directly actionable for TSMC and second-order for semiconductor capex beneficiaries, though the post itself is primarily about TSMC’s fundamentals vs guidance (not an explicit trade call).
Post references an interview/podcast with Dr. Morris Chang about TSMC history: Apple allegedly offered favorable gross margin terms and Apple’s 20nm choice reportedly delayed 16nm due to TSMC’s R&D constraints at the time. This is largely historical/color rather than a current catalyst; modestly actionable only as supporting evidence for TSMC pricing power and strategic leverage with key customers.
Post argues TSMC has a structural manufacturing advantage: very high litho/etch/deposition tool “commonality” (repurposability) across multiple node migrations (N20→N16→N10→N7→N5→N3), improving from ~70%+ in early 2010s to ~95% for recent transitions. Implication: lower incremental capex/transition cost and faster ramps vs peers, supporting stronger margins/ROIC and resilience through process transitions.
Post argues TSMC has industry-lowest COGS per wafer (<$500) and an 'unbeatable cost structure' versus GlobalFoundries, which allegedly has the highest COGS per wafer due to legacy depreciation—implying a structural margin/price competitiveness advantage for TSMC and disadvantage for GFS.
Post relays Intel management commentary (UBS conference) that 18A is on track for 2H25 production; 18A may be “overkill” for mobile, while 14A expands Intel’s addressable market; and early 18A wafer volume will be predominantly for Intel’s own products for the first 2–3 years. Actionable mainly as a medium/long-horizon foundry execution signal for INTC, with an implied caution that external foundry ramp may be slower than bulls expect.
Supporting authors
Author: Sravan Kundojjala (@SKundojjala). Single-authored thread summarizing company-level foundry results for 2Q22.
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Consider evaluating relative exposure to pure-play foundries (TSM, UMC, GFS, SMIC) versus Intel (INTC) in light of 2Q22 revenue momentum; incorporate company-specific risks such as SMIC’s geopolitical/regulatory exposure and Intel’s longer-term roadmap.