Sravan Kundojjala @SKundojjala Aug 12, 2022 Semiconductor foundry performance in 2Q22. Thread. Except for Intel, all ...
Sravan Kundojjala’s Aug 12, 2022 thread summarizes semiconductor foundry revenue performance in 2Q22. Most foundries reported strong year-over-year growth while Intel was a negative outlier, supporting a relative-long stance on foundries versus a short/underweight view on Intel based on near-term revenue momentum dispersion.
Linked assets
TSM (+36.7% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth), UMC (+41.6%), GFS (+23.0%), SMIC (+41.6% with geopolitical/regulatory risk), and INTC (-53.8% decline in foundry performance).
Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics.
Explicitly cited +36.7% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; relative strength vs INTC per post.
Explicitly cited -53.8% in 2Q22 foundry performance; negative outlier vs peers.
Explicitly cited +23.0% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; supports relative momentum thesis.
Explicitly cited +41.6% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; strong reported quarter.
Explicitly cited +41.6% 2Q22 foundry revenue growth; higher risk due to geopolitics/regulation.
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The original thread compiles reported 2Q22 foundry revenue figures across multiple vendors and highlights that, except for Intel, the covered foundries showed year-over-year revenue growth. The post is presented as comparative fundamental datapoints rather than an explicit trade recommendation.
Post summarizes TSMC 2Q25 results: revenue beat high-end of guidance despite FX, gross margin near high-end of guidance, operating margin above high-end, and CapEx up +51% YoY. This is directly actionable for TSMC and second-order for semiconductor capex beneficiaries, though the post itself is primarily about TSMC’s fundamentals vs guidance (not an explicit trade call).
Post relays Intel management commentary (UBS conference) that 18A is on track for 2H25 production; 18A may be “overkill” for mobile, while 14A expands Intel’s addressable market; and early 18A wafer volume will be predominantly for Intel’s own products for the first 2–3 years. Actionable mainly as a medium/long-horizon foundry execution signal for INTC, with an implied caution that external foundry ramp may be slower than bulls expect.
Post argues TSMC’s high-performance computing (HPC) revenue is set to surpass smartphones in 2022 (earlier than expected) due to accelerated smartphone weakness, and cites higher 5-year revenue CAGR for HPC (27%) vs smartphones (15%). Implies a favorable long-term mix shift for TSMC toward faster-growing compute demand.
Post references an interview/podcast with Dr. Morris Chang about TSMC history: Apple allegedly offered favorable gross margin terms and Apple’s 20nm choice reportedly delayed 16nm due to TSMC’s R&D constraints at the time. This is largely historical/color rather than a current catalyst; modestly actionable only as supporting evidence for TSMC pricing power and strategic leverage with key customers.
Post summarizes ASML Investor Day 2022: ASML reaffirmed prior guidance to expand EUV/DUV tool capacity through 2025–2026 and High-NA EUV capacity through 2027–2028, alongside an increased long-term (2020–2030) semiconductor market CAGR estimate (9% vs 7% previously). This is moderately actionable as a long-horizon demand/capacity signal for leading-edge lithography and broader semi capex intensity, but lacks near-term catalysts, valuation, or positioning language.
Post summarizes 2Q22 semiconductor foundry revenue performance: all listed foundries grew revenue except Intel, which declined sharply. It’s a comparative fundamental datapoint (not a trade call) but implies relative strength for pure-play foundries vs INTC.
Post summarizes ASML 3Q22 results beating guidance (revenue and margins) and an upward revision to full-year 2022 revenue growth guidance (13% vs 10% prior). This is actionable as a positive earnings/guidance catalyst for ASML and (second-order) EUV/semicap equipment supply-chain beneficiaries, though the post itself only explicitly names ASML/EUV unit shipments.
Post reports TSMC 3Q22 YoY financial and operating metrics: strong revenue growth, record gross/operating margins, higher capex, higher wafer shipments and ASPs. Actionable primarily as confirmation of near-term fundamentals/pricing power for TSMC/foundry cycle, but lacks forward guidance or explicit trade call.
Supporting authors
Author: Sravan Kundojjala (@SKundojjala). Single-authored thread summarizing company-level foundry results for 2Q22.
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Consider evaluating relative exposure to pure-play foundries (TSM, UMC, GFS, SMIC) versus Intel (INTC) in light of 2Q22 revenue momentum; incorporate company-specific risks such as SMIC’s geopolitical/regulatory exposure and Intel’s longer-term roadmap.