skundojjala
Author on X covering semiconductor foundries, lithography, and capex. 27 recommendations tracked, 96.3% win rate and average return of 11.34% across evaluated calls. Frequent coverage of TSM (TSM), ASML, and INTC.
Past bets that played out
Notable calls emphasize foundry execution and competitive moats: Intel’s 18A ramp timing and early internal wafer allocation (caution on external foundry ramp), TSMC’s durable IP/library advantage supporting share and pricing power, and relative strength of pure-play foundries vs Intel based on historical revenue performance.
Post relays Intel management commentary (UBS conference) that 18A is on track for 2H25 production; 18A may be “overkill” for mobile, while 14A expands Intel’s addressable market; and early 18A wafer volume will be predominantly for Intel’s own products for the first 2–3 years. Actionable mainly as a medium/long-horizon foundry execution signal for INTC, with an implied caution that external foundry ramp may be slower than bulls expect.
Post argues TSMC has a durable competitive advantage in foundry IP libraries ("12x more" than Samsung) and that Samsung/Intel are unlikely to close the gap soon due to TSMC’s large customer base and IP ecosystem, implying sustained share/quality leadership for TSMC and competitive pressure for INTC and Samsung.
Post summarizes 2Q22 semiconductor foundry revenue performance: all listed foundries grew revenue except Intel, which declined sharply. It’s a comparative fundamental datapoint (not a trade call) but implies relative strength for pure-play foundries vs INTC.
What this channel is watching now
Primary coverage: TSM (most-mentioned, frequent conviction on TSMC fundamentals and HPC mix shift), ASML (lithography capacity and demand signaling), INTC (process roadmap and foundry implications), and GFS. Also monitors UMC, SOXX, SSNLF, and AMAT. Conviction scores range ~0.50–0.57 across these tickers.
Latest videos and market context
Recent posts summarize quarterly and event-driven takeaways rather than trade-orientated videos: TSMC 2Q25 results (revenue and margin beats vs guidance; CapEx +51% YoY), Intel management comments on 18A timing from a UBS conference, historical and industry context interviews (e.g., Dr. Morris Chang), and thematic analysis of the shift in TSMC revenue mix toward HPC.
Sravan Kundojjala @SKundojjala Jul 17, 2025 TSMC 2Q25; Beats the high-end of rev guidance, despite FX, GM clos...
Post summarizes TSMC 2Q25 results: revenue beat high-end of guidance despite FX, gross margin near high-end of guidance, operating margin above high-end, and CapEx up +51% YoY. This is directly actionable for TSMC and second-order for semiconductor capex beneficiaries, though the post itself is primarily about TSMC’s fundamentals vs guidance (not an explicit trade call).
Sravan Kundojjala @SKundojjala Dec 5, 2024 Intel reiterates 18A process node progress. 2H25 production. 18A is overki...
Post relays Intel management commentary (UBS conference) that 18A is on track for 2H25 production; 18A may be “overkill” for mobile, while 14A expands Intel’s addressable market; and early 18A wafer volume will be predominantly for Intel’s own products for the first 2–3 years. Actionable mainly as a medium/long-horizon foundry execution signal for INTC, with an implied caution that external foundry ramp may be slower than bulls expect.
Sravan Kundojjala @SKundojjala Sep 25, 2022 TSMC's high-performance computing (HPC) is set to overtake smartphones in...
Post argues TSMC’s high-performance computing (HPC) revenue is set to surpass smartphones in 2022 (earlier than expected) due to accelerated smartphone weakness, and cites higher 5-year revenue CAGR for HPC (27%) vs smartphones (15%). Implies a favorable long-term mix shift for TSMC toward faster-growing compute demand.
Sravan Kundojjala @SKundojjala Jan 28, 2025 An inside view from Dr. Morris Chang on TSMC business. Interesting listen...
Post references an interview/podcast with Dr. Morris Chang about TSMC history: Apple allegedly offered favorable gross margin terms and Apple’s 20nm choice reportedly delayed 16nm due to TSMC’s R&D constraints at the time. This is largely historical/color rather than a current catalyst; modestly actionable only as supporting evidence for TSMC pricing power and strategic leverage with key customers.
Proof-backed call history
Consistent public coverage since at least 2022 focusing on semiconductor foundries, lithography equipment, and industry structure. Work includes data-driven recaps of quarterly results and investor days (TSMC, ASML), node-roadmap analysis (Intel 18A/14A), and historical context supporting long-term competitive assessments.
Post summarizes TSMC 2Q25 results: revenue beat high-end of guidance despite FX, gross margin near high-end of guidance, operating margin above high-end, and CapEx up +51% YoY. This is directly actionable for TSMC and second-order for semiconductor capex beneficiaries, though the post itself is primarily about TSMC’s fundamentals vs guidance (not an explicit trade call).
Post relays Intel management commentary (UBS conference) that 18A is on track for 2H25 production; 18A may be “overkill” for mobile, while 14A expands Intel’s addressable market; and early 18A wafer volume will be predominantly for Intel’s own products for the first 2–3 years. Actionable mainly as a medium/long-horizon foundry execution signal for INTC, with an implied caution that external foundry ramp may be slower than bulls expect.
Post argues TSMC’s high-performance computing (HPC) revenue is set to surpass smartphones in 2022 (earlier than expected) due to accelerated smartphone weakness, and cites higher 5-year revenue CAGR for HPC (27%) vs smartphones (15%). Implies a favorable long-term mix shift for TSMC toward faster-growing compute demand.
Post references an interview/podcast with Dr. Morris Chang about TSMC history: Apple allegedly offered favorable gross margin terms and Apple’s 20nm choice reportedly delayed 16nm due to TSMC’s R&D constraints at the time. This is largely historical/color rather than a current catalyst; modestly actionable only as supporting evidence for TSMC pricing power and strategic leverage with key customers.
Post references an interview/podcast with Dr. Morris Chang about TSMC history: Apple allegedly offered favorable gross margin terms and Apple’s 20nm choice reportedly delayed 16nm due to TSMC’s R&D constraints at the time. This is largely historical/color rather than a current catalyst; modestly actionable only as supporting evidence for TSMC pricing power and strategic leverage with key customers.
Post summarizes ASML Investor Day 2022: ASML reaffirmed prior guidance to expand EUV/DUV tool capacity through 2025–2026 and High-NA EUV capacity through 2027–2028, alongside an increased long-term (2020–2030) semiconductor market CAGR estimate (9% vs 7% previously). This is moderately actionable as a long-horizon demand/capacity signal for leading-edge lithography and broader semi capex intensity, but lacks near-term catalysts, valuation, or positioning language.
Post summarizes ASML Investor Day 2022: ASML reaffirmed prior guidance to expand EUV/DUV tool capacity through 2025–2026 and High-NA EUV capacity through 2027–2028, alongside an increased long-term (2020–2030) semiconductor market CAGR estimate (9% vs 7% previously). This is moderately actionable as a long-horizon demand/capacity signal for leading-edge lithography and broader semi capex intensity, but lacks near-term catalysts, valuation, or positioning language.
Post summarizes 2Q22 semiconductor foundry revenue performance: all listed foundries grew revenue except Intel, which declined sharply. It’s a comparative fundamental datapoint (not a trade call) but implies relative strength for pure-play foundries vs INTC.
Post summarizes 2Q22 semiconductor foundry revenue performance: all listed foundries grew revenue except Intel, which declined sharply. It’s a comparative fundamental datapoint (not a trade call) but implies relative strength for pure-play foundries vs INTC.
Post summarizes 2Q22 semiconductor foundry revenue performance: all listed foundries grew revenue except Intel, which declined sharply. It’s a comparative fundamental datapoint (not a trade call) but implies relative strength for pure-play foundries vs INTC.
Post summarizes 2Q22 semiconductor foundry revenue performance: all listed foundries grew revenue except Intel, which declined sharply. It’s a comparative fundamental datapoint (not a trade call) but implies relative strength for pure-play foundries vs INTC.
Post summarizes ASML 3Q22 results beating guidance (revenue and margins) and an upward revision to full-year 2022 revenue growth guidance (13% vs 10% prior). This is actionable as a positive earnings/guidance catalyst for ASML and (second-order) EUV/semicap equipment supply-chain beneficiaries, though the post itself only explicitly names ASML/EUV unit shipments.
About this channel
Analytical commentator on semiconductor industry structure, process-node roadmaps, and capital equipment cycles. Research emphasizes actionable fundamentals and second-order implications for capex beneficiaries, foundry competition, and high-performance compute demand.
@skundojjala
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Follow @skundojjala on X for timely recaps of earnings, investor events, and industry commentary focused on TSM, ASML, INTC, and the semiconductor supply chain.
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