Sravan Kundojjala @SKundojjala 23h STMicro 2Q26 - Accelerating recovery/ AI-datacenter story, with the DC targets 2x ...

Backed by explicit reported results and forward guide: Rev $3.49B (+12.7% q/q, +26.0% y/y), GM 34.8% (+100 bps q/q); guide $3.70B (+6.2% q/q, +16.2% y/y) and GM 37% (+220 bps q/q); plus stated AI-datacenter target ‘2x vs 1Q26’ implying incremental growth driver.

Post claims Intel delivered a “seventh consecutive beat” in 2Q26, says semiconductor demand remains far ahead of supply, and that Intel is finally raising capex (2026 capex from $18B to >$20B; 2027 “significantly above”). Also asserts ASML EUV output will grow ~30% for the next two years. Actionability: moderate—clear capex and supply/demand assertions with obvious ticker linkages (INTC, ASML), but lacks detail on margins/FCF impact, timing, and product mix.

Post highlights STMicro (STM) 2Q26 results and guidance: accelerating recovery and AI-datacenter driven upside, with datacenter targets “2x vs 1Q26,” improving revenue and expanding gross margin, plus upbeat next-quarter guide. Actionable primarily as a near-term fundamental momentum/earnings-guide strength signal for STM.

Post summarizes Texas Instruments (TXN) 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guide, highlighting above-seasonal revenue growth, margin expansion, and a favorable inventory/capacity position that could enable share gains as growth broadens from industrial/data center into automotive.

Post summarizes TSMC 2Q25 results: revenue beat high-end of guidance despite FX, gross margin near high-end of guidance, operating margin above high-end, and CapEx up +51% YoY. This is directly actionable for TSMC and second-order for semiconductor capex beneficiaries, though the post itself is primarily about TSMC’s fundamentals vs guidance (not an explicit trade call).

Post references an interview/podcast with Dr. Morris Chang about TSMC history: Apple allegedly offered favorable gross margin terms and Apple’s 20nm choice reportedly delayed 16nm due to TSMC’s R&D constraints at the time. This is largely historical/color rather than a current catalyst; modestly actionable only as supporting evidence for TSMC pricing power and strategic leverage with key customers.

Post argues TSMC has a structural manufacturing advantage: very high litho/etch/deposition tool “commonality” (repurposability) across multiple node migrations (N20→N16→N10→N7→N5→N3), improving from ~70%+ in early 2010s to ~95% for recent transitions. Implication: lower incremental capex/transition cost and faster ramps vs peers, supporting stronger margins/ROIC and resilience through process transitions.

Post argues TSMC has industry-lowest COGS per wafer (<$500) and an 'unbeatable cost structure' versus GlobalFoundries, which allegedly has the highest COGS per wafer due to legacy depreciation—implying a structural margin/price competitiveness advantage for TSMC and disadvantage for GFS.

Post relays Intel management commentary (UBS conference) that 18A is on track for 2H25 production; 18A may be “overkill” for mobile, while 14A expands Intel’s addressable market; and early 18A wafer volume will be predominantly for Intel’s own products for the first 2–3 years. Actionable mainly as a medium/long-horizon foundry execution signal for INTC, with an implied caution that external foundry ramp may be slower than bulls expect.