activemixedx

Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...

Progress is chaotic; investments in faster decision loops, resilient communications, and adaptive C4ISR/operational software deliver more value than long-cycle, plan-heavy programs. Favor companies enabling real-time decision support, secure ISR, and systems integration for command-and-control modernization.

Confidence
52 / 100
Assets
4
Authors
1
Outcome
open

Linked assets

Key exposures: PLTR (operational decision-support and control software), LHX (secure communications and ISR enabling faster command structures), NOC (prime contractor leverage to ISR/mission systems), BAH (systems integration and digital modernization services).

PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.buyopen

PLTR is an equity representing Palantir Technologies Inc., a Technology sector company in the Software - Infrastructure industry.

Confidence: 55 / 100Start: $128.47Latest: $129.30Return: 0.65%

Direct exposure to operational decision-support/control software used in defense/government and increasingly enterprise.

LHXbuyopen
Confidence: 53 / 100Start: $294.82Latest: $302.07Return: 2.46%

Core exposure to secure comms and ISR enabling faster command structures.

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporationbuyopen

Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally.

Confidence: 50 / 100Start: $521.50Latest: $549.01Return: 5.28%

Prime contractor leverage to ISR/mission systems tied to command-and-control modernization.

BAHbeneficiaryopen
Confidence: 45 / 100Start: $66.36Latest: $62.45Return: -5.89%

Systems integration and digital modernization services can benefit as agencies retool command structures.

Source proof

Source proof: Strong source proof | 3 extracted claims | 4 directional assets | 1 supporting author | headline-like title review

Base evidence is a set of public social-media posts and short essays arguing qualitatively that chaotic progress favors adaptive command-and-control, decentralized governance, and AI safety/governance considerations. The sources offer high-level, conceptual reasoning but no concrete timelines, company-specific announcements, or market-moving data.

ivan @IvanVendrov 14h this makes me more sympathetic to people who are obsessed with all the terrible things happenin...
ivanvendrov · Jul 23, 2026, 2:49 PM EDT

Tweet thread about social psychology/connection via focusing on negative news; no market, sector, company, or tradable information.

View source
ivan @IvanVendrov Jul 17 researching air purifiers and just learned about the Corsi-Rosenthal Box. beautiful piece of...
ivanvendrov · Jul 16, 2026, 9:08 PM EDT

A social post noting discovery of the DIY “Corsi–Rosenthal Box” air purifier (box fan + HVAC filters + tape). This is more of a consumer/DIY awareness signal than a market-moving catalyst, but it loosely points to demand for HVAC filters/box fans and home-improvement supplies.

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federalism / subsidiarity (maximally delegate regulation to subagents) is another pointer to the solution space, alth...
ivanvendrov · May 26, 2026, 6:40 PM EDT

The text is a high-level political/governance concept (federalism/subsidiarity; delegating regulation to subagents; concern about capture by the center). It contains no market data, no named companies, no sectors, and no concrete policy proposal or timeline; therefore it is minimally actionable for trading.

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seems like the solutions are 1. prevent overly powerful agents from emerging 2. make sure the powerful agents aren't ...
ivanvendrov · May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM EDT

The content is an abstract AI-safety/governance discussion: (1) prevent overly powerful AI agents from emerging, and/or (2) ensure powerful agents are aligned/enlightened and not acting as de-facto regulators. It implies a potential future where policy and safety constraints meaningfully shape AI development and commercialization.

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heaven is where grandmothers run the dating apps, poets fine-tune language models, autistic young men run cloud infra...
ivanvendrov · May 17, 2026, 3:26 PM EDT

Satirical/aphoristic text contrasting “heaven” vs “hell” roles (grandmothers run dating apps; poets fine-tune language models; autistic young men run cloud infra). No concrete events, companies, metrics, policy changes, or catalysts. Only broad thematic exposure: dating apps, AI model fine-tuning, and cloud infrastructure.

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@ben_r_hoffman @JulianWaller @daviddeutsch you're thinking of @DavidDeutschOxf !
ivanvendrov · May 16, 2026, 1:24 PM EDT

The content is a brief social-media clarification about a person handle (@DavidDeutschOxf) and contains no financial, macro, sector, or company information.

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@cxgonzalez https://t.co/Fm6fpe04Iw
ivanvendrov · May 16, 2026, 12:28 PM EDT

The provided source contains only a tagged handle and a shortened link, with no readable text or market-relevant details. Without the linked content, there is insufficient information to derive actionable theses or ticker impacts.

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ivan @IvanVendrov Sep 9, 2025 Wow did not expect to become main character this way. Seems like a culture clash betwee...
ivanvendrov · Sep 9, 2025, 2:47 PM EDT

Personal/social commentary about a culture clash in communication norms; no financial, macro, sector, or company information.

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Supporting authors

Primary author: ivan (@IvanVendrov). Core item: pinned Nov 13, 2022 post summarizing von Neumann–style view that chaotic progress privileges planning for agility and adaptive control.

Unlock full thesis monitoring

Consider tactical exposure to software, ISR, and systems-integration names that enable faster decision cycles and resilient communications. Perform company-level due diligence on contract pipelines, product roadmaps for operational software, and government/defense spending trends before allocating capital.