I

ivanvendrov

I publish short, analytical takes on AI governance, decentralised regulation, and technological culture. My work emphasizes conceptual frameworks over near-term market calls.

Trust score
0 / 100
Track record
0 / 100
Thesis calls
13
Evaluated calls
13
Average return
+4.31%
Win rate
85%

Past bets that played out

Top highlighted analysis repeatedly flags AI safety and governance as the primary theme: preventing the emergence of overly powerful agents and ensuring any powerful agents are aligned and not acting as de facto regulators. These pieces are conceptual and carry low immediate trade actionability.

ROKrightbacktest PROMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 42 / 100Return: +47.99%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
ACNwrongbacktest DEMOTE

The content is an abstract AI-safety/governance discussion: (1) prevent overly powerful AI agents from emerging, and/or (2) ensure powerful agents are aligned/enlightened and not acting as de-facto regulators. It implies a potential future where policy and safety constraints meaningfully shape AI development and commercialization.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM EDTConviction: 25 / 100Return: -29.56%Observed price: $177.00
Source: seems like the solutions are 1. prevent overly powerful agents from emerging 2. make sure the powerful agents aren't ...
PLTRwrongbacktest DEMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 55 / 100Return: -18.87%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...

What this channel is watching now

Most-mentioned tickers: MSFT (avg conviction 0.42), GOOGL (0.40), PANW (0.33), CRWD (0.32), NVDA (0.22). Mentions reflect thematic links to cloud infrastructure, AI platforms, and security rather than concrete, tradable catalysts.

Latest videos and market context

No recent videos. Recent content is short-form text and thread-based analysis focused on governance and cultural observations about technology.

ivan @IvanVendrov 14h this makes me more sympathetic to people who are obsessed with all the terrible things happenin...

Jul 23, 2026, 2:49 PM EDT

Tweet thread about social psychology/connection via focusing on negative news; no market, sector, company, or tradable information.

ivan @IvanVendrov Jul 17 researching air purifiers and just learned about the Corsi-Rosenthal Box. beautiful piece of...

Jul 16, 2026, 9:08 PM EDT

A social post noting discovery of the DIY “Corsi–Rosenthal Box” air purifier (box fan + HVAC filters + tape). This is more of a consumer/DIY awareness signal than a market-moving catalyst, but it loosely points to demand for HVAC filters/box fans and home-improvement supplies.

federalism / subsidiarity (maximally delegate regulation to subagents) is another pointer to the solution space, alth...

May 26, 2026, 6:40 PM EDT

The text is a high-level political/governance concept (federalism/subsidiarity; delegating regulation to subagents; concern about capture by the center). It contains no market data, no named companies, no sectors, and no concrete policy proposal or timeline; therefore it is minimally actionable for trading.

seems like the solutions are 1. prevent overly powerful agents from emerging 2. make sure the powerful agents aren't ...

May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM EDT

The content is an abstract AI-safety/governance discussion: (1) prevent overly powerful AI agents from emerging, and/or (2) ensure powerful agents are aligned/enlightened and not acting as de-facto regulators. It implies a potential future where policy and safety constraints meaningfully shape AI development and commercialization.

Proof-backed call history

Recent posts emphasize high-level political and technical concepts: subsidiarity/federalism in regulation, AI safety and alignment, and satirical takes on who runs which parts of the tech stack. None include detailed policy proposals, timelines, or company-level financial data.

HONrightbacktest DEMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100Return: +11.44%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
ROKrightbacktest PROMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 42 / 100Return: +47.99%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
ANETrightbacktest HOLD

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 45 / 100Return: +7.07%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
CRWDrightbacktest DEMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 50 / 100Return: +2.78%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
PANWrightbacktest DEMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 52 / 100Return: +0.66%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
NOCrightbacktest HOLD

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 50 / 100Return: +6.80%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
LHXrightbacktest PROMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 53 / 100Return: +15.71%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
PLTRwrongbacktest DEMOTE

A qualitative thesis: in a chaotic/progressive world, static planning/fortifications are less useful than investing in faster command/control systems and shortening decision/response loops (OODA). Implies relative preference for adaptive control, automation, real-time intelligence, and resilient communications over rigid, long-cycle planning projects.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 55 / 100Return: -18.87%
Source: Pinned ivan @IvanVendrov Nov 13, 2022 Von Neumann on existential risk: Progress is chaotic so investments in planning...
NVDArightbacktest DEMOTE

The content is an abstract AI-safety/governance discussion: (1) prevent overly powerful AI agents from emerging, and/or (2) ensure powerful agents are aligned/enlightened and not acting as de-facto regulators. It implies a potential future where policy and safety constraints meaningfully shape AI development and commercialization.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM EDTConviction: 22 / 100Return: -14.80%Observed price: $214.86
Source: seems like the solutions are 1. prevent overly powerful agents from emerging 2. make sure the powerful agents aren't ...
ACNwrongbacktest DEMOTE

The content is an abstract AI-safety/governance discussion: (1) prevent overly powerful AI agents from emerging, and/or (2) ensure powerful agents are aligned/enlightened and not acting as de-facto regulators. It implies a potential future where policy and safety constraints meaningfully shape AI development and commercialization.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM EDTConviction: 25 / 100Return: -29.56%Observed price: $177.00
Source: seems like the solutions are 1. prevent overly powerful agents from emerging 2. make sure the powerful agents aren't ...
OKTArightbacktest HOLD

The content is an abstract AI-safety/governance discussion: (1) prevent overly powerful AI agents from emerging, and/or (2) ensure powerful agents are aligned/enlightened and not acting as de-facto regulators. It implies a potential future where policy and safety constraints meaningfully shape AI development and commercialization.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM EDTConviction: 28 / 100Return: +6.28%Observed price: $93.81
Source: seems like the solutions are 1. prevent overly powerful agents from emerging 2. make sure the powerful agents aren't ...
PANWrightbacktest HOLD

The content is an abstract AI-safety/governance discussion: (1) prevent overly powerful AI agents from emerging, and/or (2) ensure powerful agents are aligned/enlightened and not acting as de-facto regulators. It implies a potential future where policy and safety constraints meaningfully shape AI development and commercialization.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM EDTConviction: 31 / 100Return: +11.41%Observed price: $256.75
Source: seems like the solutions are 1. prevent overly powerful agents from emerging 2. make sure the powerful agents aren't ...

About this channel

I write concise, conceptual analysis about AI governance, decentralised regulation, and the intersection of technology and society. I prioritize framing problems and solution spaces over issuing explicit trading signals.

Subscribersn/a
Videosn/a
Win rate85%
Average return+4.31%

@ivanvendrov

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