Dan Niles @DanielTNiles May 20, 2024 I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more...
Dan Niles expects NVIDIA ($NVDA) to report a large beat and raise on 5/22 driven by greater supply availability from TSM, but he cautions that the stock’s upside may be limited because expectations are already extremely high.
Linked assets
Primary: NVDA — catalyst is an anticipated earnings beat & raise. Secondary: TSM — cited as the supply enabler whose increased availability supports NVDA’s outlook.
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company.
Directional catalyst is positive (anticipated beat & raise), but magnitude is tempered by “EXTREMELY high” expectations, implying modest upside and elevated sell-the-news risk.
Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics.
Cited as the supply enabler: increased TSM supply is presented as a supportive read-through for NVDA. The linkage is supportive but indirect and less certain than the NVDA-specific earnings claim.
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Source proof: Strong source proof | 5 extracted claims | 2 directional assets | 1 supporting author | 1 successful tracked leg | headline-like title review
Public comments by Dan Niles (Twitter): he expects a large NVDA beat & raise on 5/22 due to more supply from TSM, yet believes the market reaction may be muted because consensus expectations are extremely high. Related posts give additional views on NVDA’s long-term revenue potential and Niles’s broader macro/positioning views.
Post says the speaker began the year preferring cash and owning no “Magnificent 7” names; expected a possible short-term bounce but remained cautious longer-term. Mentions a 90-day tariff pushback as a relevant macro policy development (text truncated, so details/cause/effects are unclear). No explicit cashtags or specific tradable tickers are provided.
Speaker expects NVDA to report a “large beat & raise” on 5/22, attributing it to increased supply availability from TSM. Despite that, he anticipates only a small positive stock reaction because expectations are already extremely high, while noting NVDA is ~15% below its 5-year average forward P/E.
Post (truncated) notes $NVDA became the 2nd most valuable company and states a longer-term belief that Nvidia revenues could roughly triple over the next 3–4 years. No explicit valuation, entry/exit, or catalyst details are included in the provided text.
Macro/catalyst comment: a CPI print below 8.5% could trigger a bear-market rally via a “peak inflation” narrative, but the speaker expects the ultimate market low is still ahead and recession risk remains.
Post expresses a near-term bullish positioning view (market to new highs into holidays) alongside a longer-term cautionary framing ("inflating AI bubble") but provides no specific tickers, catalysts, or trade parameters. Actionable only at broad-index/sector narrative level.
Supporting authors
Single author: Dan Niles (@DanielTNiles).
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Consider NVDA as a beat-driven, directional trade with capped upside; factor in high embedded expectations and sell-the-news risk. TSM is a relevant read-through but is an indirect catalyst.