x@danieltniles
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Thesis calls
14
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Past bets that played out

These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.

OPENAIopen

...elTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $... Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $META & $MSFT (owns ~27% OpenAI) is in the list of logos but OpenAI, Anthropic & the two other big public cloud hyperscalers, $AMZN & $GOOGL are not. Seems like battle lines have been drawn. Jensen Huang @JensenHuang 5h For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @nvidia signed

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
ANTHROPICopen

...n X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $... Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $META & $MSFT (owns ~27% OpenAI) is in the list of logos but OpenAI, Anthropic & the two other big public cloud hyperscalers, $AMZN & $GOOGL are not. Seems like battle lines have been drawn. Jensen Huang @JensenHuang 5h For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @nvidia signed on why open models matter. AI will transform e

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
GOOGLopen

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...

Latest videos and market context

Recent source posts from this author. Create an account to inspect the complete persisted research trail.

Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...

Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDT

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 7h $INTC vs consensus reported ~2x the EPS & beat revs by 12%. They raised capex (18%) much l...

Jul 23, 2026, 9:20 PM EDT

Post highlights an Intel earnings beat vs consensus, raised capex, and guides Q3 EPS up materially. Speaker prefers “infrastructure beneficiaries” (margin expanders) over “spenders” in a capex upcycle; explicit cashtag only for $INTC, so investable implication is primarily bullish INTC post-earnings/capex-cycle framing.

Dan Niles @DanielTNiles Jul 23 $GOOGL: Implied CY26 ROIC worse given capex raised 8% but EPS slightly higher at best ...

Jul 23, 2026, 12:18 AM EDT

Post evaluates $GOOGL after results/updates: despite revenue beat and very strong Google Cloud Platform growth/backlog, higher capex implies worse CY26 ROIC and there was a search revenue miss plus reported/estimated FCF burn. Net tone: valuation/return profile pressured near-to-mid term despite cloud positives.

Dan Niles @DanielTNiles Oct 19, 2025 Right now I am positioned for the market to head to new highs before the holiday...

Oct 19, 2025, 3:58 PM EDT

Post expresses a near-term bullish positioning view (market to new highs into holidays) alongside a longer-term cautionary framing ("inflating AI bubble") but provides no specific tickers, catalysts, or trade parameters. Actionable only at broad-index/sector narrative level.

Proof-backed call history

These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.

OPENAIopen

...elTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $... Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $META & $MSFT (owns ~27% OpenAI) is in the list of logos but OpenAI, Anthropic & the two other big public cloud hyperscalers, $AMZN & $GOOGL are not. Seems like battle lines have been drawn. Jensen Huang @JensenHuang 5h For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @nvidia signed

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
ANTHROPICopen

...n X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $... Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $META & $MSFT (owns ~27% OpenAI) is in the list of logos but OpenAI, Anthropic & the two other big public cloud hyperscalers, $AMZN & $GOOGL are not. Seems like battle lines have been drawn. Jensen Huang @JensenHuang 5h For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @nvidia signed on why open models matter. AI will transform e

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
GOOGLopen

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
AMZNopen

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
MSFTopen

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
METAopen

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 44 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
NVDAopen

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 46 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 1h Awesome that @JensenHuang is now on X. Great commentary on Openweights. Interesting that $...
INTCopen

Post highlights an Intel earnings beat vs consensus, raised capex, and guides Q3 EPS up materially. Speaker prefers “infrastructure beneficiaries” (margin expanders) over “spenders” in a capex upcycle; explicit cashtag only for $INTC, so investable implication is primarily bullish INTC post-earnings/capex-cycle framing.

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 9:20 PM EDTConviction: 62 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles 7h $INTC vs consensus reported ~2x the EPS & beat revs by 12%. They raised capex (18%) much l...
GOOGLopen

Post evaluates $GOOGL after results/updates: despite revenue beat and very strong Google Cloud Platform growth/backlog, higher capex implies worse CY26 ROIC and there was a search revenue miss plus reported/estimated FCF burn. Net tone: valuation/return profile pressured near-to-mid term despite cloud positives.

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 12:18 AM EDTConviction: 58 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles Jul 23 $GOOGL: Implied CY26 ROIC worse given capex raised 8% but EPS slightly higher at best ...
TSMopen

Speaker expects NVDA to report a “large beat & raise” on 5/22, attributing it to increased supply availability from TSM. Despite that, he expects only a small positive stock reaction because expectations are already extremely high, while noting NVDA is ~15% below its 5-year average forward P/E.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:25 PM EDTConviction: 45 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles May 20, 2024 I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more...
NVDAopen

Speaker expects NVDA to report a “large beat & raise” on 5/22, attributing it to increased supply availability from TSM. Despite that, he expects only a small positive stock reaction because expectations are already extremely high, while noting NVDA is ~15% below its 5-year average forward P/E.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:25 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles May 20, 2024 I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more...
NVDAopen

Post (truncated) notes $NVDA became the 2nd most valuable company and states a longer-term belief that Nvidia revenues could roughly triple over the next 3–4 years. No explicit valuation, entry/exit, or catalyst details are included in the provided text.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:25 PM EDTConviction: 45 / 100
Source: Dan Niles @DanielTNiles Jun 6, 2024 With $NVDA becoming the second most valuable company in the world yesterday, I th...

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