Dan Niles @DanielTNiles Jul 23 $GOOGL: Implied CY26 ROIC worse given capex raised 8% but EPS slightly higher at best ...

Alphabet Inc.

Evidence: capex raised 8% with EPS only slightly higher at best (implied CY26 ROIC worse); search rev miss ($150M) and ~$6B FCF burn are highlighted negatives. Counter: $2.7B revenue beat; GCP rev +63% y/y (Q1) and +82% (Q2); cloud backlog +11% q/q.

Post highlights Nvidia/Jensen Huang endorsing open models (“open weights”) and observes which companies’ logos appeared on the open-model letter: META and MSFT did, while OpenAI, Anthropic, AMZN, and GOOGL did not. Source frames this as “battle lines” in AI model openness. Actionability is moderate: it’s a narrative/positioning signal rather than a discrete financial catalyst, but it can inform near-term relative positioning across AI ecosystem names (open vs closed stacks).

Post highlights an Intel earnings beat vs consensus, raised capex, and guides Q3 EPS up materially. Speaker prefers “infrastructure beneficiaries” (margin expanders) over “spenders” in a capex upcycle; explicit cashtag only for $INTC, so investable implication is primarily bullish INTC post-earnings/capex-cycle framing.

Post evaluates $GOOGL after results/updates: despite revenue beat and very strong Google Cloud Platform growth/backlog, higher capex implies worse CY26 ROIC and there was a search revenue miss plus reported/estimated FCF burn. Net tone: valuation/return profile pressured near-to-mid term despite cloud positives.

Post expresses a near-term bullish positioning view (market to new highs into holidays) alongside a longer-term cautionary framing ("inflating AI bubble") but provides no specific tickers, catalysts, or trade parameters. Actionable only at broad-index/sector narrative level.

Post says the speaker began the year preferring cash and owning no “Magnificent 7” names; expected a possible short-term bounce but remained cautious longer-term. Mentions a 90-day tariff pushback as a relevant macro policy development (text truncated, so details/cause/effects are unclear). No explicit cashtags or specific tradable tickers are provided.

Post (truncated) notes $NVDA became the 2nd most valuable company and states a longer-term belief that Nvidia revenues could roughly triple over the next 3–4 years. No explicit valuation, entry/exit, or catalyst details are included in the provided text.

Speaker expects NVDA to report a “large beat & raise” on 5/22, attributing it to increased supply availability from TSM. Despite that, he expects only a small positive stock reaction because expectations are already extremely high, while noting NVDA is ~15% below its 5-year average forward P/E.

Macro/catalyst comment: a CPI print below 8.5% could trigger a bear-market rally via a “peak inflation” narrative, but the speaker expects the ultimate market low is still ahead and recession risk remains.