Flipper's place
Market commentator on Telegram (@true_flipper). Focused commentary on IPO flows, AI-related equity issuance, and trading mechanics that affect short-term volatility and cross-listing price dislocations.
Past bets that played out
Highlights a thematic view that the IPO market is re‑heating and an 'AI cashout' is beginning — annual placement plans were roughly $160bn and some AI issuers (example: Cerebras) have enlarged IPO size (upsizes ~+50% vs preliminary figures). The posts suggest IPO activity could approach or exceed 2021 levels (~260bn).
Post (RU) argues prior discussions overstated Starlink profitability; claims SpaceX/Starlink IPO materials suggest telecom/launch services are a smaller share and the real growth narrative is AI, which the author thinks is heavily overstated in the prospectus.
Report (unverified, via Asian media) claims the US and Iran discussed a plan where Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz ~30 days after a deal ends hostilities. The author argues actual physical normalization of oil flows would be slow (tanker cycle times + risk aversion), with a cited view (ADNOC) that even by year-end only ~80% of traffic may be restored. Net: any ‘reopening’ headline may not translate into immediate supply normalization; geopolitics/shipping risk premium could persist for
Report (via Asian media outlet) claims the US and Iran have discussed a plan where Iran would open/keep open the Strait of Hormuz ~30 days after a deal to end hostilities. If credible, this is a de-escalation signal that could reduce near-term geopolitical risk premium in crude and lower tanker/war-risk costs; however, it is unconfirmed and timing is vague, so tradability hinges on headline follow-through.
What this channel is watching now
Top tickers under discussion: NDAQ (mentioned 3x), GS (2x), MS (2x), ICE (2x); also coverage of ARKK, HOOD, SMH, NVDA. Typical emphasis is on capital markets, IPO supply, and the trading mechanics that drive day‑one volatility and cross‑listing timing.
Latest videos and market context
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Попросил Fable написать мне нормальную Винду.... Ничего так... Кранты вашему Микрософту теперь....
Попросил Fable написать мне нормальную Винду.... Ничего так... Кранты вашему Микрософту теперь....
Трамп в 39 раз объявил, что сделка на мази. Рынки в 39 раз продали на этом нефть. В целом круто, изобретен вечный дви...
Пост утверждает, что Трамп многократно заявлял «сделка на мази», и рынок на этих заявлениях многократно продавал нефть. Содержательно это про повторяющийся новостной триггер, который давит на цены нефти (risk-on/деэскалация/ожидание сделки) и может создавать краткосрочные возможности на нефти и нефтяных активах.
CME GROUP TO EXPAND 24/7 TRADING FOR WTI CRUDE OIL AND GOLD
CME Group plans to expand near-24/7 trading availability for WTI crude oil and gold products. The most direct potential beneficiary is CME (higher accessibility can support volume/fees); secondary impacts could be improved liquidity/price discovery for oil and gold-linked instruments.
Надо чего-то написать раз столько всего происходит про Ормуз. Сейчас диспозиция такая – Эмираты и не только начали по...
Post describes partial mitigation of Hormuz disruption via small/medium tankers moving at night under U.S. protection, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in Omani waters to reduce insurance/compliance friction. Author estimates ~3–4 mb/d may be exiting the Gulf (still far below normal), helping keep oil < $100 despite ongoing risk. Support buffers are thinning: global strategic stock releases ~2.5 mb/d set to drop to ~0.7 mb/d in July; Gulf internal summer demand draws down local inventories; U.S. crude stocks falling, supporting WTI vs global benchmarks; China may resume higher imports if prices stabilize near ~$90 vs $120+ risk scenarios.
Proof-backed call history
Published 13 recommendations/evaluations to date with an average return of -3.10% and a win rate of 38.46%. Coverage has repeatedly flagged larger IPO sizing among AI issuers and potential market‑wide implications if issuance accelerates toward 2021 levels.
Пост утверждает, что Трамп многократно заявлял «сделка на мази», и рынок на этих заявлениях многократно продавал нефть. Содержательно это про повторяющийся новостной триггер, который давит на цены нефти (risk-on/деэскалация/ожидание сделки) и может создавать краткосрочные возможности на нефти и нефтяных активах.
Пост утверждает, что Трамп многократно заявлял «сделка на мази», и рынок на этих заявлениях многократно продавал нефть. Содержательно это про повторяющийся новостной триггер, который давит на цены нефти (risk-on/деэскалация/ожидание сделки) и может создавать краткосрочные возможности на нефти и нефтяных активах.
Пост утверждает, что Трамп многократно заявлял «сделка на мази», и рынок на этих заявлениях многократно продавал нефть. Содержательно это про повторяющийся новостной триггер, который давит на цены нефти (risk-on/деэскалация/ожидание сделки) и может создавать краткосрочные возможности на нефти и нефтяных активах.
Пост утверждает, что Трамп многократно заявлял «сделка на мази», и рынок на этих заявлениях многократно продавал нефть. Содержательно это про повторяющийся новостной триггер, который давит на цены нефти (risk-on/деэскалация/ожидание сделки) и может создавать краткосрочные возможности на нефти и нефтяных активах.
Пост утверждает, что Трамп многократно заявлял «сделка на мази», и рынок на этих заявлениях многократно продавал нефть. Содержательно это про повторяющийся новостной триггер, который давит на цены нефти (risk-on/деэскалация/ожидание сделки) и может создавать краткосрочные возможности на нефти и нефтяных активах.
CME Group plans to expand near-24/7 trading availability for WTI crude oil and gold products. The most direct potential beneficiary is CME (higher accessibility can support volume/fees); secondary impacts could be improved liquidity/price discovery for oil and gold-linked instruments.
Post describes partial mitigation of Hormuz disruption via small/medium tankers moving at night under U.S. protection, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in Omani waters to reduce insurance/compliance friction. Author estimates ~3–4 mb/d may be exiting the Gulf (still far below normal), helping keep oil < $100 despite ongoing risk. Support buffers are thinning: global strategic stock releases ~2.5 mb/d set to drop to ~0.7 mb/d in July; Gulf internal summer demand draws down local inventories; U.
Post describes partial mitigation of Hormuz disruption via small/medium tankers moving at night under U.S. protection, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in Omani waters to reduce insurance/compliance friction. Author estimates ~3–4 mb/d may be exiting the Gulf (still far below normal), helping keep oil < $100 despite ongoing risk. Support buffers are thinning: global strategic stock releases ~2.5 mb/d set to drop to ~0.7 mb/d in July; Gulf internal summer demand draws down local inventories; U.
Post describes partial mitigation of Hormuz disruption via small/medium tankers moving at night under U.S. protection, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in Omani waters to reduce insurance/compliance friction. Author estimates ~3–4 mb/d may be exiting the Gulf (still far below normal), helping keep oil < $100 despite ongoing risk. Support buffers are thinning: global strategic stock releases ~2.5 mb/d set to drop to ~0.7 mb/d in July; Gulf internal summer demand draws down local inventories; U.
Post describes partial mitigation of Hormuz disruption via small/medium tankers moving at night under U.S. protection, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in Omani waters to reduce insurance/compliance friction. Author estimates ~3–4 mb/d may be exiting the Gulf (still far below normal), helping keep oil < $100 despite ongoing risk. Support buffers are thinning: global strategic stock releases ~2.5 mb/d set to drop to ~0.7 mb/d in July; Gulf internal summer demand draws down local inventories; U.
Post describes partial mitigation of Hormuz disruption via small/medium tankers moving at night under U.S. protection, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in Omani waters to reduce insurance/compliance friction. Author estimates ~3–4 mb/d may be exiting the Gulf (still far below normal), helping keep oil < $100 despite ongoing risk. Support buffers are thinning: global strategic stock releases ~2.5 mb/d set to drop to ~0.7 mb/d in July; Gulf internal summer demand draws down local inventories; U.
Post describes partial mitigation of Hormuz disruption via small/medium tankers moving at night under U.S. protection, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in Omani waters to reduce insurance/compliance friction. Author estimates ~3–4 mb/d may be exiting the Gulf (still far below normal), helping keep oil < $100 despite ongoing risk. Support buffers are thinning: global strategic stock releases ~2.5 mb/d set to drop to ~0.7 mb/d in July; Gulf internal summer demand draws down local inventories; U.
About this channel
Flipper's place posts concise market observations on Telegram (@true_flipper), focusing on primary issuance dynamics, IPO microstructure, and the implications of concentrated AI fundraising for market liquidity and risk appetite.
@true_flipper
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