youtube@DwarkeshPatel
Dwarkesh Patel

Dwarkesh Patel

Deeply researched interviews

Trust score
0 / 100
Track record
0 / 100
Thesis calls
94
Evaluated calls
0
Average return
n/a
Win rate
n/a

Past bets that played out

These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.

GMopen

The source is a physics/GR discussion (Einstein’s equivalence principle, inertial motion, free-fall vs acceleration) with a brief anecdote about Jane Street traders; it contains no market, macro, company, sector, earnings, product, regulatory, or pricing information that would support a tradable investment view.

Mentioned: Jul 10, 2026, 12:34 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100
Source: Einstein's happiest thought: General Relativity from scratch – Adam Brown
MOSopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 50 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography
DBAopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 52 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography

Latest videos and market context

Recent source posts from this author. Create an account to inspect the complete persisted research trail.

OpenAI researcher on agent swarms & recursive self-improvement

Sep 17, 2026, 11:58 AM EDT

What AI Will Actually Do for Math in the Next 5 Years - Grant Sanderson

Sep 16, 2026, 10:49 AM EDT

What chess Elo suggests about AI's economic impact

Sep 15, 2026, 5:16 PM EDT

You Can't Punish a Model Into Alignment - Ajeya Cotra

Sep 14, 2026, 6:59 PM EDT

Proof-backed call history

These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.

GMopen

The source is a physics/GR discussion (Einstein’s equivalence principle, inertial motion, free-fall vs acceleration) with a brief anecdote about Jane Street traders; it contains no market, macro, company, sector, earnings, product, regulatory, or pricing information that would support a tradable investment view.

Mentioned: Jul 10, 2026, 12:34 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100
Source: Einstein's happiest thought: General Relativity from scratch – Adam Brown
MOSopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 50 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography
DBAopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 52 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography
RTXopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 57 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography
LMTopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 58 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography
XARopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography
ITAopen

Lecture-level geopolitical framework (continental land powers vs maritime trading powers) with a brief mention of Russia/Putin targeting global agriculture. Mostly conceptual; only loosely translatable into trades via second-order implications (defense spending, supply-chain resilience, agriculture/food security).

Mentioned: Jun 9, 2026, 2:14 PM EDTConviction: 63 / 100
Source: Sarah Paine - Why Russia and China can't escape geography
OPENAIopen

...r people have pointed out, it's already not that hard to index. There's been a bit of an increase in the privatization of returns, but still, well under 20% of the total market cap of non-tiny companies in the US is private. Everyone thinks about OpenAI and Anthropic. If that's where all the wealth will accrue, then all these questions about whether open models will stay only a little bit behind, those are important. But even they look like they're going public before too long, probably. The

Mentioned: Jun 4, 2026, 12:37 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: What remains scarce after AGI? – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
ANTHROPICopen

...e not going It starts low, it’s for war or something, and then it slowly escalates until the marginal income tax Hold on. It's worth separating how the revenue is raised, what's taxed, and how it's distributed. a broad-based tax and then buying Anthropic. Which would probably be the right thing to do. to go buy a bunch of stocks, and then they just distribute those stocks to everybody. that different from just redistributing the stocks, but it will be a little different. about how long it's g

Mentioned: Jun 4, 2026, 12:37 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: What remains scarce after AGI? – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
METAopen

Podcast description discussing economics of AGI: taxation/redistribution of AI-generated wealth, how non–AI-supply-chain countries share gains, and whether inequality explodes. Contains sponsor mentions (Jane Street recruiting; Google Gemini). No concrete near-term catalysts or company-specific fundamentals in the text.

Mentioned: Jun 4, 2026, 12:37 PM EDTConviction: 28 / 100
Source: What remains scarce after AGI? – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
AMZNopen

Podcast description discussing economics of AGI: taxation/redistribution of AI-generated wealth, how non–AI-supply-chain countries share gains, and whether inequality explodes. Contains sponsor mentions (Jane Street recruiting; Google Gemini). No concrete near-term catalysts or company-specific fundamentals in the text.

Mentioned: Jun 4, 2026, 12:37 PM EDTConviction: 29 / 100
Source: What remains scarce after AGI? – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
MSFTopen

Podcast description discussing economics of AGI: taxation/redistribution of AI-generated wealth, how non–AI-supply-chain countries share gains, and whether inequality explodes. Contains sponsor mentions (Jane Street recruiting; Google Gemini). No concrete near-term catalysts or company-specific fundamentals in the text.

Mentioned: Jun 4, 2026, 12:37 PM EDTConviction: 31 / 100
Source: What remains scarce after AGI? – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell

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