Casual Finance

Fragmented macro commentary focused on inflation (PCE) and Federal Reserve bond-buying (QE) and its implications for long-term contract pricing and long-term interest rates. No company-specific information; mostly a rates/liquidity narrative.

Fragmented macro commentary focused on inflation (PCE) and Federal Reserve bond-buying (QE) and its implications for long-term contract pricing and long-term interest rates. No company-specific information; mostly a rates/liquidity narrative.

Fragmented macro commentary focused on inflation (PCE) and Federal Reserve bond-buying (QE) and its implications for long-term contract pricing and long-term interest rates. No company-specific information; mostly a rates/liquidity narrative.

Fragmented macro commentary focused on inflation (PCE) and Federal Reserve bond-buying (QE) and its implications for long-term contract pricing and long-term interest rates. No company-specific information; mostly a rates/liquidity narrative.

Fragmented macro commentary focused on inflation (PCE) and Federal Reserve bond-buying (QE) and its implications for long-term contract pricing and long-term interest rates. No company-specific information; mostly a rates/liquidity narrative.

Fragmented macro commentary focused on inflation (PCE) and Federal Reserve bond-buying (QE) and its implications for long-term contract pricing and long-term interest rates. No company-specific information; mostly a rates/liquidity narrative.

...between now and 2029. And here's the cherry on top. On top of all of these horrible fundamentals, the valuation is worse. OpenAI's last funding round valued the company at $852 billion, more than 65 times its revenue. Another side note, how did ChatGPT know I was talking about itself here? Anyways, these aren't bets on whether these are good companies. These are bets that ride on blind optimism, which reminds me of what goes down as maybe the funniest quote in finance history. And if you have

The piece argues that IPOs/SPACs are often sold to public investors at times of peak optimism and information asymmetry: insiders/sponsors sell when demand is high, leaving late buyers holding lower-quality or overvalued issuance. It cites 2021 SPACs broadly and mentions Blackstone’s post-IPO plunge as an example of public buyers being disadvantaged.

The piece argues that IPOs/SPACs are often sold to public investors at times of peak optimism and information asymmetry: insiders/sponsors sell when demand is high, leaving late buyers holding lower-quality or overvalued issuance. It cites 2021 SPACs broadly and mentions Blackstone’s post-IPO plunge as an example of public buyers being disadvantaged.

...returns getting compressed for everyone. And the best place to look for returns slipping is in the eye of the storm, OpenAI. Two years ago, OpenAI basically was AI. ChatGPT had no real competition. Then everyone showed up, Google, Anthropic, Meta, xAI, a dozen others, all selling more or less the same thing. It's the boom arriving, right on schedule. Then last year, OpenAI's financials leaked. For the first time, we could see what that competition did to the hottest company in the world, and

...Adam Smith laid out about money chasing high returns, competition entering, and returns getting compressed for everyone. And the best place to look for returns slipping is in the eye of the storm, OpenAI. Two years ago, OpenAI basically was AI. ChatGPT had no real competition. Then everyone showed up, Google, Anthropic, Meta, xAI, a dozen others, all selling more or less the same thing. It's the boom arriving, right on schedule. Then last year, OpenAI's financials leaked. For the first time,

...entering, and returns getting compressed for everyone. And the best place to look for returns slipping is in the eye of the storm, OpenAI. Two years ago, OpenAI basically was AI. ChatGPT had no real competition. Then everyone showed up, Google, Anthropic, Meta, xAI, a dozen others, all selling more or less the same thing. It's the boom arriving, right on schedule. Then last year, OpenAI's financials leaked. For the first time, we could see what that competition did to the hottest company in t