Trump Signs US-Iran Deal, Warsh Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets | Daybreak Europe 6/18/2026

Live coverage of the market impact after President Trump signed an interim US‑Iran memorandum of understanding and incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish stance, prompting traders to price earlier rate hikes.

The interim memorandum of understanding signed by President Trump to halt the conflict with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz materially reduces near‑term physical disruption risk for oil transit, contributing to a slide in Brent below $80 per barrel. At the same time, Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting and press briefing were interpreted as hawkish, pushing rate‑hike probabilities higher (markets priced a full hike by October and a potential move as soon as September). The combination tightens financial conditions: Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, the yen hit multi‑year lows versus the dollar (raising intervention risk), and equity futures reflected mixed moves across regions. These dual forces — easing geopolitical premium in oil but tougher monetary policy — create actionable cross‑asset dynamics for traders and investors.

Reports that Saudi supertankers have started transiting the Strait of Hormuz mark an initial operational reopening, supporting the decline in oil risk premia as shipping activity resumes.

Analysis that the interim deal is fragile and subject to a 60‑day test period, highlighting execution risk and potential reversals if commitments are not honored.

Fragmented market reaction where hawkish Fed messaging initially pressured stocks, but subsequent dynamics (including geopolitics) created short‑term rebounds in certain equity sectors.

Coverage noting the interim deal taking effect, futures rallies, and falling oil as investors shift focus to how quickly traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can recover and whether sanctions relief will be immediate.

Daybreak Europe reporting that the Iran deal reduced oil prices and supported risk assets in Asia, while Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone kept upward pressure on yields and rate‑hike pricing.

Fed Turns Hawkish, Spurs Surge in Rate Hike Bets | The China Show 6/18/2026 THERE WAS ONLY ONE BIG SUBJECT FOR US. WE TOOK IT ON. WE HAD A GOOD FAMILY FIGHT ON IT AND WE ENDED UP AT A BETTER PLACE. YVONNE: KEVIN WARSH AND HIS FIRST PRESS CONFERENCE AS FED CHAIR. PRESIDING OVER THE FOMC THAT KEPT RATES ON HOLD BUT DIVIDED ON THE PATH AHEAD. DAVID: GOOD MORNING FROM HONG KONG. WE ARE COUNTING ON TO THE OPENING OF MARKETS IN GREATER CHINA. TRADERS ARE PRICING IN A FULL RATE HIKE BY OCTOBER AFTER THE FED'S CLOSELY WATCHED DOT PLOT SHOWS HAWKS ARE DOMINATING. ASIAN STOCKS ARE RISING ON SUSTAINED OPTIMISM ON TECH. YVONNE: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNED A DEAL TO HALT THE WAR WITH IRAN AND REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THAT MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING NOW IN EFFECT. DAVID: CHINA'S MILITARY SPENDING NUMBERS SIGNALING A TOUGHER LINE ON BEIJING. WE WILL HEAR FROM THE DEFENSE MINISTER. YVONNE: G7 LEADERS AGREED TO REDUCE THE RELIANCE ON CHINA FOR RARE EARTHS, SEEKING TO CURB THE REST OF CONTROLS HALTING PRODUCTION LINES AROUND THE WORLD. THE KEVIN WARSH ERA HAS BEGUN AND HE MADE THAT STAMP IN HIS FIRST MEETING TODAY. YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT HAS CHANGED. IT WAS A MUCH MORE SHORTENED FOMC STATEMENT THIS TIM

"Bloomberg: The Asia Trade" brings you everything you need to know to get ahead as the trading day begins in Asia. Bloomberg TV is live from Sydney and Singapore with Haidi Stroud-Watts and Avril Hong, getting insight and analysis from newsmakers and industry leaders on the biggest stories shaping global markets. Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bloomberg: The Asia Trade begins 00:00:21 - Warsh-led Fed veers towards rate hike 00:10:54 - Breaking: Trump says he's signed Iran deal 00:13:26 - University of Michigan's Betsey Stevenson on Fed outlook 00:22:57 - SpaceX falls for first time since debut 00:26:20 - Asia strategists eye Yen intervention 00:29:52 - US-Iran deal takes effect, focus turns to Strait of Hormuz 00:33:25 - Japanese defense minister Shinjiro Koizumi on China's military data 00:39:50 - OT Group CEO Ryoji Shoda on Onitsuka Tiger's spinoff from Asics 00:47:26 - Markets open in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney 00:51:27 - Warsh sparks surge in rate-hike bets 00:56:38 - Lombard Odier's Homin Lee on hawkish Fed's impact on Asia 01:04:07 - US, Iran sign interim peace deal 01:07:27 - G7 targets China's rare earths dominance 01:11:18 - Asian stocks caught between Fed pain, Chip optimism 01:13:17

Trump: Interim Deal to be Signed in Next 48 Hours | Balance of Power 6/17/2026