Serenity @aleabitoreddit Oct 20, 2025 The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bul...
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) maintains a bullish view on Nebius ($NBIS) despite a ~17% intraday drop and wide sector weakness, framing selloffs as buying opportunities. The author also initiated a small energy position in T1 Energy ($TE) using shares plus April calls and references other energy holdings ($FLNC, $EOSE).
Linked assets
$TE — Initiated via shares + April calls as an energy-theme add. $FLNC — Existing energy holding referenced as a strong performer. $EOSE — Prior winner that was trimmed but remains part of the energy basket.
Explicit initiation of shares and April calls; positioned as a thematic beneficiary.
Referenced as an existing energy position with strong performance; implied beneficiary of same tailwind.
Referenced as prior winner but ‘trimmed’; still cited within energy basket context.
Source proof
Source proof: Strong source proof | 11 extracted claims | 3 directional assets | 1 supporting author | 1 successful tracked leg | headline-like title review
Multiple posts from Serenity between Oct 9 and Nov 13, 2025: (1) Oct 20, 2025 post reaffirms conviction in $NBIS after a -17% dip and discloses initiating $TE (shares + April calls); (2) Oct 22, 2025 discloses a sizable add to $NBIS via Dec 2026 $105 call LEAPS (~$200k at $98.8); (3) follow-ups frame a broader Neocloud theme and list comparative positioning and partner/deal claims. Posts provide position-level disclosures and narrative rationale but limited verifiable fundamental datapoints or specific catalysts.
Post reacts to FT report that $GOOGL Waymo may explore a split with $UBER. Author argues Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice because Uber becomes a distribution funnel that benefits Google as Waymo scales; expects Uber would not partner with Waymo in all cities and suggests Uber would prefer partnering with another FSD-4 player like $NBIS “Avride” that Uber partially owns and that doesn’t have a standalone competitor app.
Post highlights Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joining X to share a letter arguing “open models matter,” with claims that AI will transform every industry and that open models improve safety/cybersecurity, accelerate innovation/diffusion, and enable national “sovereignty.” This is primarily narrative/positioning; no concrete earnings/product/supply-chain catalyst is stated.
Post discusses co-packaged optics (CPO) vs pluggable optics timeline. Says $AAOI is working on CPO but is "further behind in commercialization". Cites a podcast featuring the $SIVE CEO; key takeaway quoted: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10" (interpretable as ~10 years), implying slower CPO displacement and reduced near-term disruption for pluggable-focused vendors.
Post cites informal channel checks that AMD’s Helios scale-up networking roadmap may adopt co-packaged optics (CPO) in future generations, and that broader hyperscaler/industry adoption of CPO is expected. This is a forward-looking packaging/interconnect thesis that could be bullish for AMD’s AI networking competitiveness and for public optics/photonics suppliers, but lacks specifics (names, timing, sourcing), reducing near-term tradability.
Social post thanking a Belgian newspaper (De Tijd) for covering the author’s supply chain thesis in CPO (co-packaged optics) + photonics, and mentioning tickers AAOI, XFAB, and MRVL. No new fundamental datapoints or catalyst details provided beyond media coverage/awareness.
User complains about spam/bots on X and hopes the platform improves moderation. No concrete market-moving info or catalysts provided.
Post argues HPS.A (Hammond Power Solutions) is nearing a 2-month technical timeframe level and remains a compelling “compounder” due to strong transformer-demand visibility, solid backlog, and high market share in dry-type transformers. Mentions “Transformers in the Sky” up 83.3% (unclear reference/benchmark).
Analysis reset: X provider unavailable during stale source-analysis outage; event preserved without source analysis.
Supporting authors
Single author: Serenity (handle: @aleabitoreddit). Posts combine position disclosures (size and instruments), thematic arguments (Neocloud beneficiaries of Big Tech capex), and conviction-based buy-the-dip guidance. Assertions include price targets and deal references but lack independently verifiable near-term catalysts in the posts themselves.
Unlock full thesis monitoring
Consider this content as a conviction-driven, narrative trade idea: watch for confirmation of fundamentals and counterparty deal flow before scaling. Risk-manage exposure to high-beta thematic names and size option positions appropriately.