Serenity @aleabitoreddit Oct 20, 2025 The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bul...
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) maintains conviction in Nebius ($NBIS) after a -17% dip on Oct 20, 2025, calling the selloff “no material news” and reaffirming a $400 bull-case target. The author views the pullback as a dip-buy opportunity and has disclosed meaningful adds to $NBIS in follow-up posts.
Linked assets
Primary: NBIS (Nebius Group N.V.), a full‑stack AI infrastructure provider. Analogies and comparisons reference ASTS, GOOGL, and HOOD as prior examples of sharp drawdowns that later recovered; these are cited for context rather than as direct recommendations.
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the Netherlands, Europe, North America, and Israel.
Explicit conviction unchanged + reiterated bull-case PT $400 despite -17% dip.
Used only as an analogy example of an ER drop then rally; not a direct recommendation.
Alphabet Inc.
Used only as an analogy example (AI search drawdown then rally).
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Used only as an analogy example (macro drawdown then rally).
Source proof
Source proof: Strong source proof | 11 extracted claims | 1 directional asset | 1 supporting author | headline-like title review
The bundle is sourced from a single author’s posts (Serenity / @aleabitoreddit) between Oct–Nov 2025. Key source content: (1) Oct 20, 2025 post reaffirming conviction after a -17% dip and citing a $400 target; (2) Oct 22, 2025 disclosure of adding $200k of Dec 2026 $105 call LEAPS at $98.8; (3) additional posts framing a sectorwide high‑beta AI selloff and arguing NBIS is a leading ‘Neocloud’ exposure. Posts include narrative claims (partner deals, institutional ownership thesis) but limited verifiable fundamental detail.
Post reacts to FT report that $GOOGL Waymo may explore a split with $UBER. Author argues Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice because Uber becomes a distribution funnel that benefits Google as Waymo scales; expects Uber would not partner with Waymo in all cities and suggests Uber would prefer partnering with another FSD-4 player like $NBIS “Avride” that Uber partially owns and that doesn’t have a standalone competitor app.
Post highlights Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joining X to share a letter arguing “open models matter,” with claims that AI will transform every industry and that open models improve safety/cybersecurity, accelerate innovation/diffusion, and enable national “sovereignty.” This is primarily narrative/positioning; no concrete earnings/product/supply-chain catalyst is stated.
Post discusses co-packaged optics (CPO) vs pluggable optics timeline. Says $AAOI is working on CPO but is "further behind in commercialization". Cites a podcast featuring the $SIVE CEO; key takeaway quoted: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10" (interpretable as ~10 years), implying slower CPO displacement and reduced near-term disruption for pluggable-focused vendors.
Post cites informal channel checks that AMD’s Helios scale-up networking roadmap may adopt co-packaged optics (CPO) in future generations, and that broader hyperscaler/industry adoption of CPO is expected. This is a forward-looking packaging/interconnect thesis that could be bullish for AMD’s AI networking competitiveness and for public optics/photonics suppliers, but lacks specifics (names, timing, sourcing), reducing near-term tradability.
Social post thanking a Belgian newspaper (De Tijd) for covering the author’s supply chain thesis in CPO (co-packaged optics) + photonics, and mentioning tickers AAOI, XFAB, and MRVL. No new fundamental datapoints or catalyst details provided beyond media coverage/awareness.
User complains about spam/bots on X and hopes the platform improves moderation. No concrete market-moving info or catalysts provided.
Post argues HPS.A (Hammond Power Solutions) is nearing a 2-month technical timeframe level and remains a compelling “compounder” due to strong transformer-demand visibility, solid backlog, and high market share in dry-type transformers. Mentions “Transformers in the Sky” up 83.3% (unclear reference/benchmark).
Analysis reset: X provider unavailable during stale source-analysis outage; event preserved without source analysis.
Supporting authors
Single author: Serenity (handle @aleabitoreddit). Multiple posts present both narrative bull case and position disclosures, including explicit trade size and option strike/expiry in a follow-up post.
Unlock full thesis monitoring
View the primary posts for full context and disclosures. Consider the narrative-driven, high-beta nature of the idea and verify fundamentals and risk tolerance before acting.