@PronologieFR $AAOI literally went from $28 to $170. That was a brrr. But if you're talking in short term timeframes,...
@PronologieFR: $AAOI rallied massively from $28 to $170, but short-term dilution pressure constrains upside. The recommendation is to sell or avoid near-term longs until dilution risk and clearer catalysts resolve.
Linked assets
AAOI — Photonics / co-packaged optics exposure. Historical volatility and recent large run-up create risk; short-term dilution is the primary headwind.
Explicit claim of ongoing dilution creating an upside cap in the short term; historical rally noted but framed as not the near-term setup.
Source proof
Source proof: Supported source proof | 2 extracted claims | 1 directional asset | 1 supporting author | headline-like title review
Sources are social posts and media coverage mentioning AAOI alongside related photonics and semiconductor names (XFAB, MRVL, SOI). No new fundamental datapoints, guidance, or time-bound catalysts were provided — coverage increases awareness but does not remove dilution-driven overhang.
Post reacts to FT report that $GOOGL Waymo may explore a split with $UBER. Author argues Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice because Uber becomes a distribution funnel that benefits Google as Waymo scales; expects Uber would not partner with Waymo in all cities and suggests Uber would prefer partnering with another FSD-4 player like $NBIS “Avride” that Uber partially owns and that doesn’t have a standalone competitor app.
Post highlights Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joining X to share a letter arguing “open models matter,” with claims that AI will transform every industry and that open models improve safety/cybersecurity, accelerate innovation/diffusion, and enable national “sovereignty.” This is primarily narrative/positioning; no concrete earnings/product/supply-chain catalyst is stated.
Post discusses co-packaged optics (CPO) vs pluggable optics timeline. Says $AAOI is working on CPO but is "further behind in commercialization". Cites a podcast featuring the $SIVE CEO; key takeaway quoted: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10" (interpretable as ~10 years), implying slower CPO displacement and reduced near-term disruption for pluggable-focused vendors.
Post cites informal channel checks that AMD’s Helios scale-up networking roadmap may adopt co-packaged optics (CPO) in future generations, and that broader hyperscaler/industry adoption of CPO is expected. This is a forward-looking packaging/interconnect thesis that could be bullish for AMD’s AI networking competitiveness and for public optics/photonics suppliers, but lacks specifics (names, timing, sourcing), reducing near-term tradability.
Social post thanking a Belgian newspaper (De Tijd) for covering the author’s supply chain thesis in CPO (co-packaged optics) + photonics, and mentioning tickers AAOI, XFAB, and MRVL. No new fundamental datapoints or catalyst details provided beyond media coverage/awareness.
User complains about spam/bots on X and hopes the platform improves moderation. No concrete market-moving info or catalysts provided.
Post argues HPS.A (Hammond Power Solutions) is nearing a 2-month technical timeframe level and remains a compelling “compounder” due to strong transformer-demand visibility, solid backlog, and high market share in dry-type transformers. Mentions “Transformers in the Sky” up 83.3% (unclear reference/benchmark).
Analysis reset: X provider unavailable during stale source-analysis outage; event preserved without source analysis.
Supporting authors
Single author (@PronologieFR) framing a supply-chain / photonics theme and citing past price action. Other referenced social posts discuss related names and market noise but add no material new data.
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Positioning: sell or avoid near-term longs on AAOI until dilution risk abates and clearer, quantifiable catalysts emerge.