OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze (0:00) Bestie intros (3:05) OpenAI misses targets, Codex gains on Claude (20:02) AI cybersecurity: a market that's about to explode (31:03) Elon vs Sam Altman lawsuit (41:00) Big tech smashes earnings, Capex explosion (52:44) Vibecoding nightmare: AI deleted someone's codebase (58:33) Retatrutide craze: peptides go mainstream (1:06:34) Friedberg's Supreme Court experience Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.instagram.com/missthingthepod https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273 https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2049723185617412550 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.03635 https://x.com/AISecurityInst/status/2049868227740565890 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-trial-pitting-elon-musk-against-sam-altman-kicks-off-2026-04-28 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CSCO:NASDAQ https://x.com/chamath/status/2049864100143104420 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2049895327566561683 https://x.com/lifeof_jer/status/2048103471019434248 https://x.com/levie/status/2049163935182733396 https://www.foxnews.com/media/carville-tells-dems-quietly-prepare-power-grab-dc-puerto-rico-statehood-supreme-court-packing #allin #tech #news Jason, do you want to tell us about your new favorite podcast? Oh, it's so good. My feed is now, because, you know, since cancel culture ended, everybody uses the R word and the F word right now, my entire feed on Instagram is either gay or Down syndrome or bulldogs. It's one of those three. And then I stumbled upon the Miss Thing pod, Miss Thing, and they do a bit called Gay Name Straight Name. Here's gay name or straight name for David. This is good news and bad news, Freeberg. Here we go. Gay name or straight name. David. David to me is straight. OK. But he has my perfect body. It can be confusing because I'm kind of like, are you gay? And it's like, no, I just want to be you, David. Totally. Well, it's so like the Michelangelo's David, the male ideal. It's like incredible body, kind of small ***. Sorry. Yeah. Oh, it's a little rough. What are you watching there, JCal? They basically nailed these two. But OK, keep going. I don't think Chamath is on their shortlist, but I know Jason will come up at some point. Gay name or straight name. Maybe this is it. Chamath. We'll add the count of three. Three, two, one. Gay. I think like Italian sweater, like really kind of like loud, vibrant sweater. He like wears it to like poker night with his like his boys. And like not I'm not talking like straight poker. I'm talking like gay poker night, like that's the bar. Yeah. Always talking about wine. Talks about wine so much. Always sort of like swishing. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Also, it's so like the guy at the gym taking off his shirt, taking selfies. Yeah, and everyone else is kind of like, excuse me, Chamath, I'd like to use the mirror. I'd like to see myself. See you at the next gay poker night. Totally. Can you bring the wine? We'll bring the sweater. Yeah. There it is. Wow, they did do Chamath. That is fantastic. That is fantastic. A shout out to my guys at the Miss Thing podcast. Wow, that was awesome. I think I'm gay. I never knew. What did you do, like cameo? Did you pay them to do that? Did it for me as a favor. So I did a favor. That's awesome. Well, thanks to those guys. Thanks to the Miss Thing pod. I've seen those guys before in clips. I find them very funny. It's so great. Shout out to my guys. That was awesome. All right, everybody, seriously, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all-in podcast with me again, David Freeberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sachs, and of course, I'm Jason Calacanis. You can call me JCal if you're here for the first time. Topic one, OpenAI. They missed their targets for ChatGPT, Freeberg, both on users and revenue. Let's talk about it. The Wall Street Journal says in a breaking investigative report on Tuesday that OpenAI expected to hit $1 billion wows, weekly active users, before the end of 2025. They missed that and they still haven't hit the milestone four months into 2026. Also, Chamath, they missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT. Exact number wasn't specified, but as we've talked about here, they're at a $20-30 billion run rate. There's a little bit of accounting nuance that is yet to be worked out in the industry. Two reasons why this matters, Sachs. OpenAI has $600 billion in spending commitments for compute. Just to put that in perspective, that's about what they're trading for on secondary markets. In other words, the entire value of the OpenAI enterprise equals their spend commitments in the coming year. CFO Sarah Fryer, who is coming to liquidity, is reportedly worried, hey, that revenue isn't growing fast enough to keep up with expense and OpenAI wants to IPO later this year. This has put Fryer and Altman in conflict or maybe there's some natural tension there. Fryer doesn't think OpenAI is ready for public reporting standards, according to the Wall Street Journal. Altman obviously wants to move faster. So they released a joint statement. This is ridiculous, yada, yada, yada. Let's go to you, Sachs. What do you think's going on here? Are these major headwinds or is this just managing expectations as the leader of the pack in the most important race of our lifetimes, the race towards superintelligence? Well, I actually have a little bit of a contrarian take on this. I know that OpenAI had a really bad week. Like you said, they had that Wall Street Journal article which said that they missed their numbers. They missed their 1 billion user growth target. They missed their revenue numbers. That's called into question whether they can afford the data center commitments that they've made. And then in addition to that, they've also had the lawsuit with Elon happening this week. So in the press, it ended up being, I think, a pretty bad week for them. But I have a contrarian take on this, which I think that over the past week or two, if you look at kind of what's happening at the product level, it's been a pretty good couple of weeks for them. They released ChatGPT 5.5 and the reviews from people I talk to in Silicon Valley have been really str

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze (0:00) Bestie intros (3:05) OpenAI misses targets, Codex gains on Claude (20:02) AI cybersecurity: a market that's about to explode (31:03) Elon vs Sam Altman lawsuit (41:00) Big tech smashes earnings, Capex explosion (52:44) Vibecoding nightmare: AI deleted someone's codebase (58:33) Retatrutide craze: peptides go mainstream (1:06:34) Friedberg's Supreme Court experience Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.instagram.com/missthingthepod https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273 https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2049723185617412550 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.03635 https://x.com/AISecurityInst/status/2049868227740565890 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-trial-pitting-elon-musk-against-sam-altman-kicks-off-2026-04-28 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CSCO:NASDAQ https://x.com/chamath/status/2049864100143104420 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2049895327566561683 https://x.com/lifeof_jer/status/2048103471019434248 https://x.com/levie/status/2049163935182733396 https://www.foxnews.com/media/carville-tells-dems-quietly-prepare-power-grab-dc-puerto-rico-statehood-supreme-court-packing #allin #tech #news Jason, do you want to tell us about your new favorite podcast? Oh, it's so good. My feed is now, because, you know, since cancel culture ended, everybody uses the R word and the F word right now, my entire feed on Instagram is either gay or Down syndrome or bulldogs. It's one of those three. And then I stumbled upon the Miss Thing pod, Miss Thing, and they do a bit called Gay Name Straight Name. Here's gay name or straight name for David. This is good news and bad news, Freeberg. Here we go. Gay name or straight name. David. David to me is straight. OK. But he has my perfect body. It can be confusing because I'm kind of like, are you gay? And it's like, no, I just want to be you, David. Totally. Well, it's so like the Michelangelo's David, the male ideal. It's like incredible body, kind of small ***. Sorry. Yeah. Oh, it's a little rough. What are you watching there, JCal? They basically nailed these two. But OK, keep going. I don't think Chamath is on their shortlist, but I know Jason will come up at some point. Gay name or straight name. Maybe this is it. Chamath. We'll add the count of three. Three, two, one. Gay. I think like Italian sweater, like really kind of like loud, vibrant sweater. He like wears it to like poker night with his like his boys. And like not I'm not talking like straight poker. I'm talking like gay poker night, like that's the bar. Yeah. Always talking about wine. Talks about wine so much. Always sort of like swishing. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Also, it's so like the guy at the gym taking off his shirt, taking selfies. Yeah, and everyone else is kind of like, excuse me, Chamath, I'd like to use the mirror. I'd like to see myself. See you at the next gay poker night. Totally. Can you bring the wine? We'll bring the sweater. Yeah. There it is. Wow, they did do Chamath. That is fantastic. That is fantastic. A shout out to my guys at the Miss Thing podcast. Wow, that was awesome. I think I'm gay. I never knew. What did you do, like cameo? Did you pay them to do that? Did it for me as a favor. So I did a favor. That's awesome. Well, thanks to those guys. Thanks to the Miss Thing pod. I've seen those guys before in clips. I find them very funny. It's so great. Shout out to my guys. That was awesome. All right, everybody, seriously, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all-in podcast with me again, David Freeberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sachs, and of course, I'm Jason Calacanis. You can call me JCal if you're here for the first time. Topic one, OpenAI. They missed their targets for ChatGPT, Freeberg, both on users and revenue. Let's talk about it. The Wall Street Journal says in a breaking investigative report on Tuesday that OpenAI expected to hit $1 billion wows, weekly active users, before the end of 2025. They missed that and they still haven't hit the milestone four months into 2026. Also, Chamath, they missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT. Exact number wasn't specified, but as we've talked about here, they're at a $20-30 billion run rate. There's a little bit of accounting nuance that is yet to be worked out in the industry. Two reasons why this matters, Sachs. OpenAI has $600 billion in spending commitments for compute. Just to put that in perspective, that's about what they're trading for on secondary markets. In other words, the entire value of the OpenAI enterprise equals their spend commitments in the coming year. CFO Sarah Fryer, who is coming to liquidity, is reportedly worried, hey, that revenue isn't growing fast enough to keep up with expense and OpenAI wants to IPO later this year. This has put Fryer and Altman in conflict or maybe there's some natural tension there. Fryer doesn't think OpenAI is ready for public reporting standards, according to the Wall Street Journal. Altman obviously wants to move faster. So they released a joint statement. This is ridiculous, yada, yada, yada. Let's go to you, Sachs. What do you think's going on here? Are these major headwinds or is this just managing expectations as the leader of the pack in the most important race of our lifetimes, the race towards superintelligence? Well, I actually have a little bit of a contrarian take on this. I know that OpenAI had a really bad week. Like you said, they had that Wall Street Journal article which said that they missed their numbers. They missed their 1 billion user growth target. They missed their revenue numbers. That's called into question whether they can afford the data center commitments that they've made. And then in addition to that, they've also had the lawsuit with Elon happening this week. So in the press, it ended up being, I think, a pretty bad week for them. But I have a contrarian take on this, which I think that over the past week or two, if you look at kind of what's happening at the product level, it's been a pretty good couple of weeks for them. They released ChatGPT 5.5 and the reviews from people I talk to in Silicon Valley have been really str

Podcast-style discussion covering: (1) US policy/regulatory pressure around open-source AI vs closed models (Anthropic/OpenAI) and China model progress (Kimi K3); (2) a reported ~$1.5B Anthropic piracy/IP settlement (private company) and broader IP enforcement risk; (3) public-market reaction to surging AI capex with Google and Tesla cited as “tanking”; (4) NYC political rhetoric around evictions/property rights (potentially negative for exposed landlords/NYC CRE sentiment). Actionability is moderate: investable angles are mainly via hyperscalers/AI supply chain and China internet/AI proxies; many primary entities discussed (Anthropic/OpenAI) are private.

Mark Cuban compares the current AI market to the dot-com bubble, arguing that many AI-linked companies with weak fundamentals could get "wiped out" while real, revenue-producing platforms and infrastructure winners persist. He highlights enterprise AI adoption as harder-than-expected (integration, workflows, ROI, data/privacy), discusses a shift to AI-first work, and mentions healthcare/biometrics as a longer-horizon opportunity area. Actionability is moderate because the content is thesis-level and not tied to specific catalysts, but it maps cleanly to a "quality AI vs. hype AI" positioning framework.

Only a headline is provided (no article detail), so actionability is limited. The title suggests: (1) AI industry self-regulation vs impending formal regulation, (2) Stripe potentially moving deeper into PayPal’s core markets (payments/merchant services), (3) Chinese AI capability closing the gap, and (4) New York policy restricting datacenter development/operations.

Messy transcript-style discussion: former Intel CEO critiques Intel’s past capital allocation (stock buybacks vs buying EUV tools), highlights how Nvidia/TSMC out-executed Intel (GPU/SIMT compute shift; foundry scale/process progress; ecosystem standardization + EDA tooling). Second thread references “vibe coding”/AI-assisted software creation and the possibility of new software entrants building on hyperscaler infrastructure (AWS mentioned).

The provided source contains only a title and no substantive body content, so it offers limited actionable signals. The title implies AI disruption in (1) voice/voice agents, (2) legal services workflows, and (3) pricing pressure on time-based professional services ("end of the billable hour").

Only a headline is provided (no article body/details), so actionability is very limited. The title suggests: (1) renewed IPO/mega-IPO optimism, (2) very bullish private AI valuation talk (Anthropic), (3) Meta/Zuck initiating or escalating a “price war” (likely in ads, AI services, or consumer subscriptions), (4) potential China policy shift affecting open-source software, and (5) “Trump accounts” (likely Trump Media / platform monetization or regulatory/account reinstatement news).

Transcript-style discussion about open-source AI models, multimodal generative tooling, and rising demand for AI compute/data centers (explicitly mentioning AWS wanting more data centers). Also references frontier-model claims ("AGI is here"), regulatory/compliance contexts (HIPAA/FINRA), and partnerships/geography (UAE/G42). Actionable market signal is mainly the continued capex cycle for AI compute and data-center infrastructure; the rest is largely narrative and non-specific.

The provided source contains only a headline (repeated) with no supporting details, numbers, timing, or confirmed facts. Actionability is therefore very low; any trade mapping is speculative and should be treated as a watchlist prompt rather than a signal.