OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze (0:00) Bestie intros (3:05) OpenAI misses targets, Codex gains on Claude (20:02) AI cybersecurity: a market that's about to explode (31:03) Elon vs Sam Altman lawsuit (41:00) Big tech smashes earnings, Capex explosion (52:44) Vibecoding nightmare: AI deleted someone's codebase (58:33) Retatrutide craze: peptides go mainstream (1:06:34) Friedberg's Supreme Court experience Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.instagram.com/missthingthepod https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273 https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2049723185617412550 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.03635 https://x.com/AISecurityInst/status/2049868227740565890 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-trial-pitting-elon-musk-against-sam-altman-kicks-off-2026-04-28 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CSCO:NASDAQ https://x.com/chamath/status/2049864100143104420 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2049895327566561683 https://x.com/lifeof_jer/status/2048103471019434248 https://x.com/levie/status/2049163935182733396 https://www.foxnews.com/media/carville-tells-dems-quietly-prepare-power-grab-dc-puerto-rico-statehood-supreme-court-packing #allin #tech #news Jason, do you want to tell us about your new favorite podcast? Oh, it's so good. My feed is now, because, you know, since cancel culture ended, everybody uses the R word and the F word right now, my entire feed on Instagram is either gay or Down syndrome or bulldogs. It's one of those three. And then I stumbled upon the Miss Thing pod, Miss Thing, and they do a bit called Gay Name Straight Name. Here's gay name or straight name for David. This is good news and bad news, Freeberg. Here we go. Gay name or straight name. David. David to me is straight. OK. But he has my perfect body. It can be confusing because I'm kind of like, are you gay? And it's like, no, I just want to be you, David. Totally. Well, it's so like the Michelangelo's David, the male ideal. It's like incredible body, kind of small ***. Sorry. Yeah. Oh, it's a little rough. What are you watching there, JCal? They basically nailed these two. But OK, keep going. I don't think Chamath is on their shortlist, but I know Jason will come up at some point. Gay name or straight name. Maybe this is it. Chamath. We'll add the count of three. Three, two, one. Gay. I think like Italian sweater, like really kind of like loud, vibrant sweater. He like wears it to like poker night with his like his boys. And like not I'm not talking like straight poker. I'm talking like gay poker night, like that's the bar. Yeah. Always talking about wine. Talks about wine so much. Always sort of like swishing. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Also, it's so like the guy at the gym taking off his shirt, taking selfies. Yeah, and everyone else is kind of like, excuse me, Chamath, I'd like to use the mirror. I'd like to see myself. See you at the next gay poker night. Totally. Can you bring the wine? We'll bring the sweater. Yeah. There it is. Wow, they did do Chamath. That is fantastic. That is fantastic. A shout out to my guys at the Miss Thing podcast. Wow, that was awesome. I think I'm gay. I never knew. What did you do, like cameo? Did you pay them to do that? Did it for me as a favor. So I did a favor. That's awesome. Well, thanks to those guys. Thanks to the Miss Thing pod. I've seen those guys before in clips. I find them very funny. It's so great. Shout out to my guys. That was awesome. All right, everybody, seriously, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all-in podcast with me again, David Freeberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sachs, and of course, I'm Jason Calacanis. You can call me JCal if you're here for the first time. Topic one, OpenAI. They missed their targets for ChatGPT, Freeberg, both on users and revenue. Let's talk about it. The Wall Street Journal says in a breaking investigative report on Tuesday that OpenAI expected to hit $1 billion wows, weekly active users, before the end of 2025. They missed that and they still haven't hit the milestone four months into 2026. Also, Chamath, they missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT. Exact number wasn't specified, but as we've talked about here, they're at a $20-30 billion run rate. There's a little bit of accounting nuance that is yet to be worked out in the industry. Two reasons why this matters, Sachs. OpenAI has $600 billion in spending commitments for compute. Just to put that in perspective, that's about what they're trading for on secondary markets. In other words, the entire value of the OpenAI enterprise equals their spend commitments in the coming year. CFO Sarah Fryer, who is coming to liquidity, is reportedly worried, hey, that revenue isn't growing fast enough to keep up with expense and OpenAI wants to IPO later this year. This has put Fryer and Altman in conflict or maybe there's some natural tension there. Fryer doesn't think OpenAI is ready for public reporting standards, according to the Wall Street Journal. Altman obviously wants to move faster. So they released a joint statement. This is ridiculous, yada, yada, yada. Let's go to you, Sachs. What do you think's going on here? Are these major headwinds or is this just managing expectations as the leader of the pack in the most important race of our lifetimes, the race towards superintelligence? Well, I actually have a little bit of a contrarian take on this. I know that OpenAI had a really bad week. Like you said, they had that Wall Street Journal article which said that they missed their numbers. They missed their 1 billion user growth target. They missed their revenue numbers. That's called into question whether they can afford the data center commitments that they've made. And then in addition to that, they've also had the lawsuit with Elon happening this week. So in the press, it ended up being, I think, a pretty bad week for them. But I have a contrarian take on this, which I think that over the past week or two, if you look at kind of what's happening at the product level, it's been a pretty good couple of weeks for them. They released ChatGPT 5.5 and the reviews from people I talk to in Silicon Valley have been really str

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze (0:00) Bestie intros (3:05) OpenAI misses targets, Codex gains on Claude (20:02) AI cybersecurity: a market that's about to explode (31:03) Elon vs Sam Altman lawsuit (41:00) Big tech smashes earnings, Capex explosion (52:44) Vibecoding nightmare: AI deleted someone's codebase (58:33) Retatrutide craze: peptides go mainstream (1:06:34) Friedberg's Supreme Court experience Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.instagram.com/missthingthepod https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273 https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2049723185617412550 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.03635 https://x.com/AISecurityInst/status/2049868227740565890 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-trial-pitting-elon-musk-against-sam-altman-kicks-off-2026-04-28 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CSCO:NASDAQ https://x.com/chamath/status/2049864100143104420 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2049895327566561683 https://x.com/lifeof_jer/status/2048103471019434248 https://x.com/levie/status/2049163935182733396 https://www.foxnews.com/media/carville-tells-dems-quietly-prepare-power-grab-dc-puerto-rico-statehood-supreme-court-packing #allin #tech #news Jason, do you want to tell us about your new favorite podcast? Oh, it's so good. My feed is now, because, you know, since cancel culture ended, everybody uses the R word and the F word right now, my entire feed on Instagram is either gay or Down syndrome or bulldogs. It's one of those three. And then I stumbled upon the Miss Thing pod, Miss Thing, and they do a bit called Gay Name Straight Name. Here's gay name or straight name for David. This is good news and bad news, Freeberg. Here we go. Gay name or straight name. David. David to me is straight. OK. But he has my perfect body. It can be confusing because I'm kind of like, are you gay? And it's like, no, I just want to be you, David. Totally. Well, it's so like the Michelangelo's David, the male ideal. It's like incredible body, kind of small ***. Sorry. Yeah. Oh, it's a little rough. What are you watching there, JCal? They basically nailed these two. But OK, keep going. I don't think Chamath is on their shortlist, but I know Jason will come up at some point. Gay name or straight name. Maybe this is it. Chamath. We'll add the count of three. Three, two, one. Gay. I think like Italian sweater, like really kind of like loud, vibrant sweater. He like wears it to like poker night with his like his boys. And like not I'm not talking like straight poker. I'm talking like gay poker night, like that's the bar. Yeah. Always talking about wine. Talks about wine so much. Always sort of like swishing. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Also, it's so like the guy at the gym taking off his shirt, taking selfies. Yeah, and everyone else is kind of like, excuse me, Chamath, I'd like to use the mirror. I'd like to see myself. See you at the next gay poker night. Totally. Can you bring the wine? We'll bring the sweater. Yeah. There it is. Wow, they did do Chamath. That is fantastic. That is fantastic. A shout out to my guys at the Miss Thing podcast. Wow, that was awesome. I think I'm gay. I never knew. What did you do, like cameo? Did you pay them to do that? Did it for me as a favor. So I did a favor. That's awesome. Well, thanks to those guys. Thanks to the Miss Thing pod. I've seen those guys before in clips. I find them very funny. It's so great. Shout out to my guys. That was awesome. All right, everybody, seriously, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all-in podcast with me again, David Freeberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sachs, and of course, I'm Jason Calacanis. You can call me JCal if you're here for the first time. Topic one, OpenAI. They missed their targets for ChatGPT, Freeberg, both on users and revenue. Let's talk about it. The Wall Street Journal says in a breaking investigative report on Tuesday that OpenAI expected to hit $1 billion wows, weekly active users, before the end of 2025. They missed that and they still haven't hit the milestone four months into 2026. Also, Chamath, they missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT. Exact number wasn't specified, but as we've talked about here, they're at a $20-30 billion run rate. There's a little bit of accounting nuance that is yet to be worked out in the industry. Two reasons why this matters, Sachs. OpenAI has $600 billion in spending commitments for compute. Just to put that in perspective, that's about what they're trading for on secondary markets. In other words, the entire value of the OpenAI enterprise equals their spend commitments in the coming year. CFO Sarah Fryer, who is coming to liquidity, is reportedly worried, hey, that revenue isn't growing fast enough to keep up with expense and OpenAI wants to IPO later this year. This has put Fryer and Altman in conflict or maybe there's some natural tension there. Fryer doesn't think OpenAI is ready for public reporting standards, according to the Wall Street Journal. Altman obviously wants to move faster. So they released a joint statement. This is ridiculous, yada, yada, yada. Let's go to you, Sachs. What do you think's going on here? Are these major headwinds or is this just managing expectations as the leader of the pack in the most important race of our lifetimes, the race towards superintelligence? Well, I actually have a little bit of a contrarian take on this. I know that OpenAI had a really bad week. Like you said, they had that Wall Street Journal article which said that they missed their numbers. They missed their 1 billion user growth target. They missed their revenue numbers. That's called into question whether they can afford the data center commitments that they've made. And then in addition to that, they've also had the lawsuit with Elon happening this week. So in the press, it ended up being, I think, a pretty bad week for them. But I have a contrarian take on this, which I think that over the past week or two, if you look at kind of what's happening at the product level, it's been a pretty good couple of weeks for them. They released ChatGPT 5.5 and the reviews from people I talk to in Silicon Valley have been really str

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze (0:00) Bestie intros (3:05) OpenAI misses targets, Codex gains on Claude (20:02) AI cybersecurity: a market that's about to explode (31:03) Elon vs Sam Altman lawsuit (41:00) Big tech smashes earnings, Capex explosion (52:44) Vibecoding nightmare: AI deleted someone's codebase (58:33) Retatrutide craze: peptides go mainstream (1:06:34) Friedberg's Supreme Court experience Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.instagram.com/missthingthepod https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273 https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2049723185617412550 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.03635 https://x.com/AISecurityInst/status/2049868227740565890 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-trial-pitting-elon-musk-against-sam-altman-kicks-off-2026-04-28 https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2049527702076449244 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CSCO:NASDAQ https://x.com/chamath/status/2049864100143104420 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2049895327566561683 https://x.com/lifeof_jer/status/2048103471019434248 https://x.com/levie/status/2049163935182733396 https://www.foxnews.com/media/carville-tells-dems-quietly-prepare-power-grab-dc-puerto-rico-statehood-supreme-court-packing #allin #tech #news Jason, do you want to tell us about your new favorite podcast? Oh, it's so good. My feed is now, because, you know, since cancel culture ended, everybody uses the R word and the F word right now, my entire feed on Instagram is either gay or Down syndrome or bulldogs. It's one of those three. And then I stumbled upon the Miss Thing pod, Miss Thing, and they do a bit called Gay Name Straight Name. Here's gay name or straight name for David. This is good news and bad news, Freeberg. Here we go. Gay name or straight name. David. David to me is straight. OK. But he has my perfect body. It can be confusing because I'm kind of like, are you gay? And it's like, no, I just want to be you, David. Totally. Well, it's so like the Michelangelo's David, the male ideal. It's like incredible body, kind of small ***. Sorry. Yeah. Oh, it's a little rough. What are you watching there, JCal? They basically nailed these two. But OK, keep going. I don't think Chamath is on their shortlist, but I know Jason will come up at some point. Gay name or straight name. Maybe this is it. Chamath. We'll add the count of three. Three, two, one. Gay. I think like Italian sweater, like really kind of like loud, vibrant sweater. He like wears it to like poker night with his like his boys. And like not I'm not talking like straight poker. I'm talking like gay poker night, like that's the bar. Yeah. Always talking about wine. Talks about wine so much. Always sort of like swishing. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Also, it's so like the guy at the gym taking off his shirt, taking selfies. Yeah, and everyone else is kind of like, excuse me, Chamath, I'd like to use the mirror. I'd like to see myself. See you at the next gay poker night. Totally. Can you bring the wine? We'll bring the sweater. Yeah. There it is. Wow, they did do Chamath. That is fantastic. That is fantastic. A shout out to my guys at the Miss Thing podcast. Wow, that was awesome. I think I'm gay. I never knew. What did you do, like cameo? Did you pay them to do that? Did it for me as a favor. So I did a favor. That's awesome. Well, thanks to those guys. Thanks to the Miss Thing pod. I've seen those guys before in clips. I find them very funny. It's so great. Shout out to my guys. That was awesome. All right, everybody, seriously, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all-in podcast with me again, David Freeberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sachs, and of course, I'm Jason Calacanis. You can call me JCal if you're here for the first time. Topic one, OpenAI. They missed their targets for ChatGPT, Freeberg, both on users and revenue. Let's talk about it. The Wall Street Journal says in a breaking investigative report on Tuesday that OpenAI expected to hit $1 billion wows, weekly active users, before the end of 2025. They missed that and they still haven't hit the milestone four months into 2026. Also, Chamath, they missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT. Exact number wasn't specified, but as we've talked about here, they're at a $20-30 billion run rate. There's a little bit of accounting nuance that is yet to be worked out in the industry. Two reasons why this matters, Sachs. OpenAI has $600 billion in spending commitments for compute. Just to put that in perspective, that's about what they're trading for on secondary markets. In other words, the entire value of the OpenAI enterprise equals their spend commitments in the coming year. CFO Sarah Fryer, who is coming to liquidity, is reportedly worried, hey, that revenue isn't growing fast enough to keep up with expense and OpenAI wants to IPO later this year. This has put Fryer and Altman in conflict or maybe there's some natural tension there. Fryer doesn't think OpenAI is ready for public reporting standards, according to the Wall Street Journal. Altman obviously wants to move faster. So they released a joint statement. This is ridiculous, yada, yada, yada. Let's go to you, Sachs. What do you think's going on here? Are these major headwinds or is this just managing expectations as the leader of the pack in the most important race of our lifetimes, the race towards superintelligence? Well, I actually have a little bit of a contrarian take on this. I know that OpenAI had a really bad week. Like you said, they had that Wall Street Journal article which said that they missed their numbers. They missed their 1 billion user growth target. They missed their revenue numbers. That's called into question whether they can afford the data center commitments that they've made. And then in addition to that, they've also had the lawsuit with Elon happening this week. So in the press, it ended up being, I think, a pretty bad week for them. But I have a contrarian take on this, which I think that over the past week or two, if you look at kind of what's happening at the product level, it's been a pretty good couple of weeks for them. They released ChatGPT 5.5 and the reviews from people I talk to in Silicon Valley have been really str

Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections

Transcript is a partial/garbled excerpt from an “All-In Best Ideas Pitch Competition” segment. The only clearly actionable security discussed is MGM Resorts (MGM). The speaker is bullish based on: (1) a strategic/financial buyer accumulating shares (implied to be a large holder), (2) extremely aggressive company buybacks (claiming ~half the float over ~6 years), and (3) “hidden assets” tied to Macau/China exposure (MGM China), with an implied large valuation gap (speaker suggests the stock could be worth materially more, even “a triple”). Other mentions (Caesars, SACE, energy-efficiency retrofits) are not coherent enough to produce a tradable thesis with confidence.

Low-signal transcript-style political discussion referencing bipartisanship, “money in DC,” claims about opposition groups aligned with China/CCP, and multiple mentions of data centers and trade unions/jobs (Pennsylvania context implied). No concrete policy proposal, bill, vote, or company named; therefore limited direct trade actionability.

Noisy, partial transcript. Core actionable ideas appear to be: (1) the US faces a “critical minerals” supply shortfall (implicitly tied to China/trade restrictions), (2) AI/compute growth is driving a resurgence in CPU/compute intensity and tightness in memory (HBM/NAND) pricing, and (3) rising power demand may favor reliable gas-fired generation vs intermittent renewables, while solar remains a separate growth vector. Specific companies are not named; tickers below are inferred, so confidence is moderate-to-low.

The source is a low-quality/garbled transcript with only a few discernible investable points: (1) a thesis that Google could "crush" AI competitors (implying platform/data/distribution advantage), (2) a general claim that smaller VC funds can outperform (not directly tradable), and (3) a macro/policy aside about weakening CDC/NIH and restricting H1B immigration, which could be a headwind to US biotech R&D and innovation labor supply. Overall, actionable signal is limited and mostly narrative-level.

"Analytical Software Is Dead" - Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora very long time. of in a really interesting position to of SAS. come out with other models. You buy You buy the hype. >> I mean, you saw IBM announced a project know, OT code on the edge. You can find you talk to CIOS today, their biggest Fix it." while the CIS are busy finding companies like the SAS businesses that SAS? >> Well, you see SAS is Bill said SAS is an analytical SAS company, it's over. >> It's over. What is an analytical SAS every SAS company has a marketplace. You can buy Salesforce marketplace. What do >> I can just go run NLM against the data. instance with a SAS product with 20 my, you know, inventory data from SAP. I selling a lot? Where do I have less different SAS products tomorrow you can SAS is dead are marginally irrelevant will take away UI and let agents do the work. UI enterprise software and consumer software UI is the worst thing >> Yes. That was analytical SAS. So that's product managers design UI so all humans can interact with data behind the UI. to be able to do it. If that happens UI goes away. If UI goes away, I can rewire in a company all these SAS software that >> it's less about

The provided source contains only a title with no substantive claims or data. It suggests a discussion about secondary markets taking share from traditional IPOs, but there are no specifics (mechanisms, companies, numbers, timing) to extract tradable implications.

The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel (0:00) CEOs Andrew Feldman (Cerebras) and Will Marshall (Planet Labs) join the Besties! (2:05) Both CEOs on going public: Impact on employees, customers, and business operations (13:18) Timelines for datacenters in space (19:28) Cerebras business breakdown, AI's impact on the silicon market (24:45) How Founder/CEOs think about liquidity on the road to going public Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY - Great tech starts with a big idea. From startup to scale, EY helps tech founders get financials right early so they can focus on what’s next. https://www.ey.com/en_us/tech-sector/tech-startups?WT.mc_id=3501317&AA.tsrc=sponsorship NYSE - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. https://www.nyse.com Plaud - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight. https://www.plaud.ai Follow Brad Gerstner: https://x.com/altcap Follow Andrew Feldman: https://x.com/andrewdfeldman Follow Will Marshall: https://x.com/Will4