Michael Sikand @michaelsikand 12h I want to love $APP so bad but my god it's painful. Imagine being me, rotating some...
Near-term bearish/avoid stance on AppLovin until advertiser demand signals turn positive
Linked assets
These are the assets attached to this thesis, along with direction, confidence, and outcome so far.
Explicit position-change language ('I'm out') after a large drawdown; downside thesis is sentiment/demand-signal driven rather than a defined catalyst, so conviction is moderate.
Source proof
Source proof: Strong source proof | 3 extracted claims | 1 directional asset | 1 supporting author | headline-like title review
Single short post posing a rhetorical question about an unusual macro mix (high inflation, record earnings, AI boom, low consumer sentiment, stocks near ATHs, strong labor, energy crisis/war, tariffs, ballooning US debt). No tickers or explicit trade recommendations; mostly contextual macro commentary.
Post is a broad macro lament: current macro environment is “abhorrent,” and even “generational winners” are being punished despite evidence/data-driven positioning. No tickers/cashtags, no explicit catalyst, no tradeable setup.
Post makes a high-level narrative claim: companies spending the most on AI function as a “hedge against AI.” No tickers, sectors, catalysts, time frame, or position language provided, so investability/actionability is low.
Post argues Soitec (SOI.PA / SLOIF) is a photonics/engineered-wafer “monopoly” leveraged to AI networking/CPO, calling it a clear multi-bagger after a large drawdown (down ~75% from ATH; previously fell ~42.5% from ATH) and notes a sharp +22% move after a Q1-related drop. Mentions NVDA GTC as the research catalyst for the thesis and position sizing (“third largest”).
Post suggests revisiting $KRKNF “fundamentals at these levels” as a non-AI/adjacent alternative if questioning the AI trade; supporting quoted text frames KRKNF as building tools for ocean mapping and mentions “start with the batteries” but provides no concrete financial/catalyst details. Actionable only at a high level (watchlist/long bias), low specificity.
Speaker expresses frustration with $APP (AppLovin), stating they rotated capital out of “high beta selloff AI” into an adtech play and got “rinsed 15%,” and that they are out until e-commerce advertisers (“ecom bros”) report strong ad performance/growth arbitrage again. This reads as a near-term bearish/avoid stance on APP tied to perceived demand/signal from advertiser anecdotes rather than a specific dated catalyst.
Post claims the author concentrated 70% of portfolio into an unnamed “secret smallcap” expected to 10x because it “powers Anduril’s subsea drones,” framing an “ocean/subsea” defense-spending supercycle. No identifiable public ticker is provided, so no directly tradable ticker idea can be formed from this text alone.
Post highlights extreme market-cap appreciation and trading volume in $BMNR, framing it as a leveraged/strategic acquirer of ETH (analogous to MicroStrategy’s BTC approach) and calling it “Exxon Mobil of digital oil.” Actionability is moderate: there is a clear bullish framing and asset-allocation narrative, but no concrete catalyst, valuation work, or timing/levels beyond hype/scale comparisons.
Supporting authors
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