Babyfolio @babyfolio Oct 17, 2025 $NBIS at $112 = $28B market cap. ~$5B cash 28% of ClickHouse (IPO soon, could be wo...
Author presents a sum-of-the-parts long thesis for $NBIS. At an asserted $112 share price (~$28B market cap), the post backs out ~ $5B cash, a ~28% stake in ClickHouse (IPO expected, implied $5–8B value) and ~ $3B of other subsidiaries, arguing the remaining core business is materially undervalued versus a projected $3–4B ARR by end-2026. The recommended stance is buy; catalyst is ClickHouse IPO and core ARR growth.
Linked assets
$NBIS — Nebius Group N.V., a full‑stack infrastructure company serving the global AI industry across the Netherlands, Europe, North America, and Israel. Thesis links company value to cash, a ClickHouse stake, subsidiary values, and projected ARR growth.
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the Netherlands, Europe, North America, and Israel.
Investable implication is explicitly to not be ‘scared of buying’ at $112 based on implied undervaluation after backing out cash and stake/sub valuations; catalyst is ClickHouse IPO plus growth to $3–4B ARR by end of 2026.
Source proof
Source proof: Strong source proof | 9 extracted claims | 1 directional asset | 1 supporting author | headline-like title review
Primary author: Babyfolio (@babyfolio). Key posts cited include an Oct 17, 2025 sum-of-the-parts valuation thread asserting the $112 price implies a ~$28B market cap with ~ $5B cash and a 28% ClickHouse stake; supporting and related short-form posts from Sep–Oct 2025 provide context and sentiment but limited additional fundamental detail.
General pro-bull, long-term optimism message; no tickers, no catalysts, no position changes. Low investability beyond a broad risk-on sentiment.
Post is primarily motivational/psychology. Only investable content is that the speaker reports being down ~9% on $NBIS and $FCEL on the day; no catalyst, valuation, or forward-looking thesis is provided. Reply expresses willingness to buy dips but does not specify tickers.
Speaker is explicitly long $FCEL, citing an article/interview with FCEL’s CFO that reduced concerns about dilution and management alignment. Emphasizes high upside and potentially rapid re-rating if thesis plays out; acknowledges “real risks” and suggests buying on red.
Post contains a single explicit bullish cashtag call ($NBIS) and a quoted/embedded statement attributed to Jensen Huang (NVIDIA) emphasizing the importance of open AI models and broad-based AI adoption. Actionability is modest: no catalyst, valuation, timeframe, or positioning details beyond sentiment.
Generic engagement post about a “FUD pullback” and asking what to buy; no tickers, no catalysts, no positioning, no timeframe. Low actionability.
Single-question post noting $QQQ is down ~8% from ATH and asking what stops the correction. No explicit catalyst, view, positioning, or recommendation beyond acknowledging a pullback; low actionability.
Promotional/community announcement: Babyfolio is shutting down an X subscription service and joining with others to build “Edelbridge Alpha.” No tickers, sectors, macro views, product-cycle or supply-chain claims, or investable market implications are stated.
Single-ticker, highly speculative social post making long-dated price predictions for $NBIS (to $300 by end-2026 and $1,056 by end-2027) with stated intent to possibly go “all in.” No fundamental, catalyst, product, valuation, or risk reasoning provided, so actionability is low beyond capturing sentiment/positioning.
Supporting authors
Single author: Babyfolio (@babyfolio). Multiple social posts referenced; most are short-form commentary. The Oct 17, 2025 post contains the main valuation back-of-the-envelope and the explicit buy implication.
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Summary view: author recommends a long/buy stance on $NBIS based on sum-of-the-parts valuation and an upcoming ClickHouse IPO as catalyst. Readers should verify assumptions (cash balance, ClickHouse stake valuation, subsidiary valuations, and projected ARR) before acting.