TBT
Current stance: buy TBT as a tactical, short-duration way to express pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury prices following reported large foreign outflows in March. Note that TIC-style monthly flows can be volatile and subject to custody, valuation, and FX effects.
Recent proof-backed thesis calls
One active recommendation: buy TBT based on reported foreign selling pressure in March (reported $139B decline in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries to $9.35T).
Gregory Daco (EY-Parthenon) says he expects the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates unchanged for the rest of the year; discussion also references what he would like to see from a (purported) new Chair Kevin Warsh and touches on whether an AI-led investment boom is inflationary in the short run.
Snippet discusses demand for the long end of the U.S. yield curve, noting Japanese investors’ role and hedge funds’ Treasury futures/CTD basis trades (short futures vs cash). It implies positioning/flow sensitivity in long-duration U.S. Treasuries and potential unwind risk (e.g., around weekends when traders reduce exposure). No specific new data points, catalysts, or quantified flows are provided.
Reported TIC-style data: foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell by $139B in March to $9.35T (largest monthly drop since Sep 2022). Japan reduced holdings by $48B to $1.19T. If sustained, this is (marginally) bearish duration/UST prices and (marginally) supportive of higher yields/term premium; however month-to-month TIC moves can be noisy (custody shifts/valuation/FX). Note: the text claims 'lowest since Dec 2025' which is likely a typo; treat that detail with low confidence.
Current stance
Recommendation: buy. Rationale: Tactical short-duration trade — reported foreign Treasury selling pressures are (marginally) bearish for duration/UST prices and supportive of higher long-end yields and term premium. Confidence: ~0.55.
- buy via Tactical short-duration trade: foreign Treasury selling pressures long-end prices (higher yields) from https://x.com/kobeissiletter (confidence 0.55)
- sell via Express a ‘Fed on hold’ regime via long duration and selective rate-sensitive equity exposure. from https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg (confidence 0.38)
- risk via Flow/positioning-driven rally risk in long-duration U.S. Treasuries (long-end yields down). from https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg (confidence 0.35)
Top authors on this asset
Active and historical ticker theses
Active play: Tactical short-duration trade: foreign Treasury selling pressures long-end prices (higher yields). Cleaner directional proxy for rising long-end yields but still exposed to mean reversion if data is one-off.
Tactical short-duration trade: foreign Treasury selling pressures long-end prices (higher yields)
Express a ‘Fed on hold’ regime via long duration and selective rate-sensitive equity exposure.
Flow/positioning-driven rally risk in long-duration U.S. Treasuries (long-end yields down).
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Source for the call: https://x.com/kobeissiletter. Monitor subsequent TIC releases and cross-check for custody/valuation/FX noise before committing size.