equityhold

IBIT · iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Trust-weighted public proof page for IBIT. See which authors support it, which ticker theses it belongs to, and how thesis calls have performed.

Opportunity
26 / 100
Current score
0.20
Thesis calls
13
Active decisions
11

Recent proof-backed thesis calls

Public preview of asset-level thesis calls linked to source content, observed prices, and outcomes.

Unchainedyoutubeopen

Clip argues the proposed “Clarity Act” (regulatory clarity) is less incremental for Bitcoin than for smart-contract/DeFi ecosystems. It highlights a volatility signal: Volmex’s BVIV vs BVIV‑US divergence around IBIT’s regulated options market, suggesting segmentation between regulated (IBIT options) and offshore venues. Speaker expects an increasingly institutional crypto market by year-end, with Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid positioned to gain more from regulatory clarity than Bitcoin.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 1:14 AM EDTConviction: 46 / 100
Source: Bits + Bips: Why Bitcoin Has the Least to Gain From the Clarity Act
Unchainedyoutubeopen

Podcast description: Lyn Alden raised ~$40M to launch Orange Juice, a holding-company approach that buys cash-flowing “boring” businesses and holds Bitcoin at the parent level (positioned as countercyclical vs procyclical bitcoin-treasury stocks). Mentions criticism of Strategy/Michael Saylor, STRC price sliding near $85 vs $100 target, plus discussion of BIP-110 inscriptions and quantum-computing threat to Bitcoin.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 12:23 PM EDTConviction: 44 / 100
Source: Lyn Alden's New Firm Will Buy 'Boring' Businesses — and Bitcoin. Why?

Snippet claims bearish pressure on Bitcoin driven by institutional selling and sustained negative sentiment, with a dated reference to June 2026 and an unclear subject (“its long-standing never sell stance”) that appears to have broken by selling in late June/early July. Limited detail, but it points to near-term downside pressure in BTC and correlated crypto risk assets.

Mentioned: Jul 13, 2026, 10:00 AM EDTConviction: 50 / 100
Source: Bearish Pressure Weighs on Bitcoin | Presented by CME Group

Bloomberg segment highlights record-paced withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, implying weakening institutional demand for BTC; also flags uncertainty around financing strategy for the largest corporate BTC buyer (commonly understood as MicroStrategy). Net message is near-term bearish for BTC and BTC-levered equities if outflows persist.

Mentioned: Jun 30, 2026, 4:19 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100
Source: Bitcoin ETFs on Track for Worst Month of Withdrawls
Unchainedyoutubeopen

Podcast clip argues “Strategy” (MicroStrategy) funding model is fragile: repeated preferred issuances + fees sustain BTC accumulation; reflexive loop between BTC and MSTR works mainly on the way up; in a deeper BTC bear market, preferreds (e.g., “STRC”) may not return to par and dividend/coverage claims may fail, creating a potential unwind similar in market impact (not structure) to a major crypto failure.

Mentioned: Jun 26, 2026, 7:18 PM EDTConviction: 44 / 100
Source: Will Strategy Be Crypto’s Next FTX? Here’s Why Vinny Lingham Thinks So

Post is a list of “Strong Buy / Buy / Hold” cashtags after a -3.6% SPY down day. It implies a buy-the-dip stance across crypto/crypto-miners, semis/AI hardware, select consumer/tech, and a few other names, but provides no explicit rationale or catalysts beyond the market selloff context. Some cashtags appear non-standard/unverifiable and are excluded from tradable ideas.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 7:38 PM EDTConviction: 36 / 100
Source: Serenity @aleabitoreddit Oct 11, 2025 Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy...
Flipper's placetelegramopen

MicroStrategy ($MSTR) disclosed it sold 32 BTC for ~$2.5M at an average price around ~$77k/BTC (per filing). Given the tiny size vs MSTR’s overall BTC position, the market impact is likely minimal, but it slightly undermines the “permanent HODL” narrative and can be interpreted as a marginally bearish/neutral signal for BTC-proxy sentiment.

Mentioned: Jun 2, 2026, 3:44 PM EDTConviction: 22 / 100
Source: $MSTR - MICROSTRATEGY SELLS 32 BTC FOR $2.5M AT AVERAGE OF $77.135M: FILING А как же вечный HODL?
Flipper's placetelegramopen

Report claims MicroStrategy (MSTR) sold 32 BTC for ~$2.5M at an average price around ~$77,135/BTC (headline has a likely typo). If accurate, it slightly weakens the “never sell/HODL” narrative but the size is immaterial versus MSTR’s total BTC holdings; market impact is likely sentiment-driven and short-lived.

Mentioned: Jun 1, 2026, 8:10 AM EDTConviction: 28 / 100
Source: $MSTR - MICROSTRATEGY SELLS 32 BTC FOR $2.5M AT AVERAGE OF $77.135M: FILING А как же вечный HODL?

This excerpt is the cover page of IBIT’s 10‑Q for the quarter ended 2026‑03‑31. It confirms the fund’s identity (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF), listing venue (Nasdaq), and that it has been timely in SEC reporting and electronic data submissions. No portfolio, risk, flow, NAV, or operational details are included in the provided text, so there are no material new fundamentals or catalysts to trade on from this snippet alone.

Mentioned: May 7, 2026, 3:42 PM EDTConviction: 32 / 100
Source: IBIT 10-Q report for 2026-03-31
Andrei Jikhyoutubeopen

Source is a YouTube video link titled “How Wall Street Took Over Bitcoin,” but the transcript/content is unavailable (IP blocked). The post mainly contains promotional links and does not provide verifiable details, data points, or specific claims that can be mapped to a near-term trading catalyst.

Mentioned: Feb 27, 2026, 11:59 AM ESTConviction: 33 / 100
Source: How Wall Street Took Over Bitcoin
Private Talksyoutubeopen

Интервью/подкаст с экономистом и автором «Исповеди экономического убийцы» Джоном Перкинсом. Обсуждение носит обзорно-идеологический характер: влияние непредсказуемой политики Дональда Трампа на мировую экономику, торговая война США–Китай, перспективы доллара и биткоина, роль МВФ/ВБ/ООН и тезисы про ресурсную борьбу и «экономических убийц». Конкретных новых фактов/решений/цифр нет — это скорее макро-комментарий и нарратив про рост геополитических и валютных рисков.

Mentioned: Dec 29, 2025, 12:11 PM ESTConviction: 38 / 100
Source: «США создали много врагов» | Джон Перкинс о борьбе за ресурсы, силе доллара и экономических убийцах

Фрагмент — это лишь вступление к выпуску/коллаборации шоу «Деньги не спят» с Николаем Мячиным («Простая экономика») на тему: «Доллар в опасности? Темное прошлое и будущее главной мировой валюты». В предоставленном тексте нет собственно тезисов/аргументов, цифр, прогнозов или конкретных упоминаний рынков/инструментов — только анонс темы и представление гостя.

Mentioned: Aug 9, 2025, 5:00 AM EDTConviction: 16 / 100
Source: Доллар в опасности? Темное прошлое и будущее главной мировой валюты / Простая экономика

Current stance

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