equitybuy

CME · CME Group Inc.

Trust-weighted public proof page for CME. See which authors support it, which ticker theses it belongs to, and how thesis calls have performed.

Opportunity
358 / 100
Current score
6.32
Thesis calls
11
Active decisions
11

Recent proof-backed thesis calls

Public preview of asset-level thesis calls linked to source content, observed prices, and outcomes.

Unchainedyoutubeopen

The source discusses Kalshi’s regulatory/legal turmoil: a Michigan lawsuit over sports event contracts, a restraining order, and an unusual CFTC emergency action; plus Kalshi pulling flight-cancellation contracts after backlash and an insider-trading allegation. Key market angle is U.S. prediction-market regulation and federal/state jurisdiction (potential Supreme Court path). Kalshi is private, so actionable implications are indirect via listed exchanges/brokers and crypto/prediction-market-adj

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 7:34 PM EDTConviction: 58 / 100
Source: Why Kalshi's Rough Week Could Reach the Supreme Court: DEX in the City
Unchainedyoutubeopen

Podcast-style discussion: CFTC used rarely-invoked emergency authority to “rescue” prediction market Kalshi amid state action (Michigan suit/TRO), highlighting federal preemption/regulatory turf wars around event contracts (sports). Also: Japan moving to cut crypto tax to a flat 20% (from up to 55%) under a financial instruments framework; and DTCC executing live settlement of tokenized securities with major banks/asset managers (JPM, GS, BlackRock), suggesting momentum toward tokenized collater

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 12:10 AM EDTConviction: 36 / 100
Source: Why Did the CFTC Use Its Break-Glass Power to Rescue Kalshi? - DEX in the City

US Strategic Oil Reserve Nears 40-Year Low | Presented by CME Group question is no longer simply how much means the SPR may not be able to deliver

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 2:54 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100
Source: US Strategic Oil Reserve Nears 40-Year Low | Presented by CME Group

Record Beef Prices Sour the Summer BBQ | Presented by CME Group The USDA projects beef prices will climb CME Group is launching 90% and 50% beef

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 2:53 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100
Source: Record Beef Prices Sour the Summer BBQ  | Presented by CME Group
Flipper's placetelegramopen

CME Group plans to launch a very small oil contract (10 barrels, ~$700 notional) with 24/7 trading starting end of August, aimed at retail participation and competing with crypto venues offering commodity-linked products. This is moderately actionable for CME/derivatives exchange exposure; direct oil price implications are minimal.

Mentioned: Jul 5, 2026, 6:21 AM EDTConviction: 58 / 100
Source: Chicago-based CME Group has said retail traders will be able to buy and sell contracts for just 10 barrels of oil — c...

The provided source contains only a title (“Grain Markets Brace for Crucial USDA Reports | Presented by CME Group”) with no additional body content. Without details on the specific USDA report(s), expected changes (acreage, yield, stocks), or cited market reactions, there is insufficient information to extract actionable trade theses or ticker-specific implications.

Mentioned: Jun 24, 2026, 11:55 AM EDTConviction: 15 / 100
Source: Grain Markets Brace for Crucial USDA Reports | Presented by CME Group

Only a title is provided (“Can the Fed Maintain its Waiting Game? | Presented by CME Group”) with no transcript, quotes, data, or specific claims. As a result there are no extractable, testable theses or ticker-specific implications beyond a generic “Fed on hold” macro topic.

Mentioned: Jun 22, 2026, 9:58 AM EDTConviction: 10 / 100
Source: Can the Fed Maintain its Waiting Game? | Presented by CME Group

Tweet previews major U.S. crypto legislation (to be introduced 6/7/2022) covering commodity vs security definitions, stablecoins, CBDC framework, and NFT guidance. No specific bill text, tickers, or positioning guidance is provided—actionability is mainly “watch for regulatory clarity/overhang changes.”

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 10:55 PM EDTConviction: 26 / 100
Source: Small Cap Scientist 👨‍🔬🧪🥼 @SmallCapScience Jun 4, 2022 One of the largest pieces of crypto legislation will be introd...
Flipper's placetelegramopen

CME Group plans to expand near-24/7 trading availability for WTI crude oil and gold products. The most direct potential beneficiary is CME (higher accessibility can support volume/fees); secondary impacts could be improved liquidity/price discovery for oil and gold-linked instruments.

Mentioned: Jun 11, 2026, 11:07 PM EDTConviction: 62 / 100
Source: CME GROUP TO EXPAND 24/7 TRADING FOR WTI CRUDE OIL AND GOLD
ARK Investyoutubeopen

Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) discusses macro signals (inflation/jobs/war) and highlights an unexpected divergence between PPI and CPI. The main concrete item is ARK’s announced partnership with Kalshi (a regulated prediction-market platform), framed as a potential catalyst for a broader “financial innovation wave” and new data/signals for markets.

Mentioned: Apr 9, 2026, 8:01 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100
Source: Inflation, Jobs, War: Kalshi’s Signals | ITK With Cathie Wood
ARK Investyoutubeopen

Podcast episode featuring Kalshi’s Head of Research discussing prediction markets and how they could be used for forecasting and risk management. The excerpt provided contains no concrete corporate news, financial results, partnership announcement, regulatory decision, or product launch tied to a publicly traded company—mostly high-level discussion about the prediction-market category and Kalshi’s mission/background.

Mentioned: Apr 1, 2026, 4:49 PM EDTConviction: 34 / 100
Source: Kalshi Beats Consensus | The Brainstorm EP 125

Current stance

Recommendationbuy
Authors5
Active decisions11
Latest price$255.31

Investment decisions

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