Q1 Market Recap: How Private Credit, AI, & War Have Dominated 2026 So Far | The Weekly Wrap

Q1 Market Recap: How Private Credit, AI, & War Have Dominated 2026 So Far | The Weekly Wrap On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down everything that moved markets in Q1 2026 and examines how all sectors performed during the quarter. He also discusses the latest... Hello, Weekend. President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere. The combination of higher oil prices and increasing interest rates was just too much. The S&P closed the quarter down 4% and NASDAQ closed down 7%. For the first time in decades, the PEs for software stocks are lower than the market multiple. The group has been humbled. Private equity went on a buying binge of software companies. And now, the private equity sector is buried in software. There is no question that every one of those transactions is underwater and probably by a lot. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending April 10, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, April 9. On this wrap, we will discuss the following. The war in Iran. Two, a short primer on reasons for private equity's growth. Three, some more bad news on private credit and some actual good news too. Four, a summary of the first quarter and an analysis of how various sectors performed. And finally, I will also address comments from three viewers. So let's get started. Iran news. Iran, of course, remains of paramount importance to the global markets. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night. At the last minute, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On this news, oil prices collapsed, declining by over 15%, and the S&P closed up 2.5%. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere. Vice President J.D. Vance said Wednesday that the Iran ceasefire is a, quote, fragile truce. Vance also said that Iran's foreign minister had responded well to the ceasefire, but others in the country had been lying about the agreement. Late Wednesday, Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire and said that the Strait would remain closed. One early sticking point seems to be that the Iranians think that the ceasefire applies to Lebanon, and the U.S. and Israel say it does not. Until the war is finally settled, I am sure the market will continue to trade headlines. Moving on. I don't speak about private equity as frequently as private credit because private credit seems to be where all the risk is buried. Since private equity companies own many private credit funds, it is worth taking a detour today to look more closely at the huge growth in private equity. Since the great financial crisis, private equity has been one of the fastest growing asset classes. According to McKinsey, private equity was $4 trillion in 2016 and reached almost $9 trillion in 2025. Why has private equity grown so much? It's partially because of an intellectual disguise. Institutional investors care greatly about their Sharpe ratio. What's that? The Sharpe ratio is a financial metric that is used to evaluate an investment return relative to its risk. It calculates the excess return per unit of volatility. A high Sharpe ratio would be the result, for example, of strong returns coupled with low volatility. Every institutional investor covets that. Now, for many institutional investors, post-great financial crisis, a great appeal of private equity is, ironically, its opacity. Investing in public markets provides a valuation every day. Investing in private equity appears to create smoother volatility because prices are given only on occasion. This allowed institutional investors to claim that they had greater Sharpe ratios than they did when they invested more in public markets pre-GFC. Some commentators call this volatility laundering. Now, it's totally true that the private equity strategy worked very well for many years by employing leverage during periods of low rates and financial repression. That private equity is also less volatile is just plain wrong. Just because you don't get a daily price does not mean that the asset class is less volatile. It just appears to be less volatile. And now, the private equity sector is buried in software. So much for the Sharpe ratio. Let's get back to private credit. Not a week goes by without new bad news from the world of private credit. At the end of last week, Blue Owl announced that it had received elevated redemption requests for two of its private credit funds for the first quarter of 2026. The firm's flagship, OCIC, with about $36 billion in assets under management, received redemption requests of an astonishing 21.9%. Blue Owl's smaller tech-oriented fund, OTIC, which is $3.3 billion in size, redeemed redemption requests of 41% during the same period. The firm capped redemptions at 5%. Wow. These redemption levels are unheard of. Also this week, Carlyle's flagship private credit fund, the Carlyle Tactical Private Credit Fund, CTAC, with $7 billion in assets, got a 16% redemption notice but only honored t

OCIC is an equity ticker representing 44; sector and industry information are not currently available.

Q1 Market Recap: How Private Credit, AI, & War Have Dominated 2026 So Far | The Weekly Wrap On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down everything that moved markets in Q1 2026 and examines how all sectors performed during the quarter. He also discusses the latest... Hello, Weekend. President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere. The combination of higher oil prices and increasing interest rates was just too much. The S&P closed the quarter down 4% and NASDAQ closed down 7%. For the first time in decades, the PEs for software stocks are lower than the market multiple. The group has been humbled. Private equity went on a buying binge of software companies. And now, the private equity sector is buried in software. There is no question that every one of those transactions is underwater and probably by a lot. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending April 10, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, April 9. On this wrap, we will discuss the following. The war in Iran. Two, a short primer on reasons for private equity's growth. Three, some more bad news on private credit and some actual good news too. Four, a summary of the first quarter and an analysis of how various sectors performed. And finally, I will also address comments from three viewers. So let's get started. Iran news. Iran, of course, remains of paramount importance to the global markets. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night. At the last minute, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On this news, oil prices collapsed, declining by over 15%, and the S&P closed up 2.5%. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere. Vice President J.D. Vance said Wednesday that the Iran ceasefire is a, quote, fragile truce. Vance also said that Iran's foreign minister had responded well to the ceasefire, but others in the country had been lying about the agreement. Late Wednesday, Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire and said that the Strait would remain closed. One early sticking point seems to be that the Iranians think that the ceasefire applies to Lebanon, and the U.S. and Israel say it does not. Until the war is finally settled, I am sure the market will continue to trade headlines. Moving on. I don't speak about private equity as frequently as private credit because private credit seems to be where all the risk is buried. Since private equity companies own many private credit funds, it is worth taking a detour today to look more closely at the huge growth in private equity. Since the great financial crisis, private equity has been one of the fastest growing asset classes. According to McKinsey, private equity was $4 trillion in 2016 and reached almost $9 trillion in 2025. Why has private equity grown so much? It's partially because of an intellectual disguise. Institutional investors care greatly about their Sharpe ratio. What's that? The Sharpe ratio is a financial metric that is used to evaluate an investment return relative to its risk. It calculates the excess return per unit of volatility. A high Sharpe ratio would be the result, for example, of strong returns coupled with low volatility. Every institutional investor covets that. Now, for many institutional investors, post-great financial crisis, a great appeal of private equity is, ironically, its opacity. Investing in public markets provides a valuation every day. Investing in private equity appears to create smoother volatility because prices are given only on occasion. This allowed institutional investors to claim that they had greater Sharpe ratios than they did when they invested more in public markets pre-GFC. Some commentators call this volatility laundering. Now, it's totally true that the private equity strategy worked very well for many years by employing leverage during periods of low rates and financial repression. That private equity is also less volatile is just plain wrong. Just because you don't get a daily price does not mean that the asset class is less volatile. It just appears to be less volatile. And now, the private equity sector is buried in software. So much for the Sharpe ratio. Let's get back to private credit. Not a week goes by without new bad news from the world of private credit. At the end of last week, Blue Owl announced that it had received elevated redemption requests for two of its private credit funds for the first quarter of 2026. The firm's flagship, OCIC, with about $36 billion in assets under management, received redemption requests of an astonishing 21.9%. Blue Owl's smaller tech-oriented fund, OTIC, which is $3.3 billion in size, redeemed redemption requests of 41% during the same period. The firm capped redemptions at 5%. Wow. These redemption levels are unheard of. Also this week, Carlyle's flagship private credit fund, the Carlyle Tactical Private Credit Fund, CTAC, with $7 billion in assets, got a 16% redemption notice but only honored t

OTIC is an equity security; company, sector, and industry information are currently unavailable.

Q1 Market Recap: How Private Credit, AI, & War Have Dominated 2026 So Far | The Weekly Wrap On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down everything that moved markets in Q1 2026 and examines how all sectors performed during the quarter. He also discusses the latest... Hello, Weekend. President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere. The combination of higher oil prices and increasing interest rates was just too much. The S&P closed the quarter down 4% and NASDAQ closed down 7%. For the first time in decades, the PEs for software stocks are lower than the market multiple. The group has been humbled. Private equity went on a buying binge of software companies. And now, the private equity sector is buried in software. There is no question that every one of those transactions is underwater and probably by a lot. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending April 10, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, April 9. On this wrap, we will discuss the following. The war in Iran. Two, a short primer on reasons for private equity's growth. Three, some more bad news on private credit and some actual good news too. Four, a summary of the first quarter and an analysis of how various sectors performed. And finally, I will also address comments from three viewers. So let's get started. Iran news. Iran, of course, remains of paramount importance to the global markets. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night. At the last minute, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On this news, oil prices collapsed, declining by over 15%, and the S&P closed up 2.5%. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere. Vice President J.D. Vance said Wednesday that the Iran ceasefire is a, quote, fragile truce. Vance also said that Iran's foreign minister had responded well to the ceasefire, but others in the country had been lying about the agreement. Late Wednesday, Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire and said that the Strait would remain closed. One early sticking point seems to be that the Iranians think that the ceasefire applies to Lebanon, and the U.S. and Israel say it does not. Until the war is finally settled, I am sure the market will continue to trade headlines. Moving on. I don't speak about private equity as frequently as private credit because private credit seems to be where all the risk is buried. Since private equity companies own many private credit funds, it is worth taking a detour today to look more closely at the huge growth in private equity. Since the great financial crisis, private equity has been one of the fastest growing asset classes. According to McKinsey, private equity was $4 trillion in 2016 and reached almost $9 trillion in 2025. Why has private equity grown so much? It's partially because of an intellectual disguise. Institutional investors care greatly about their Sharpe ratio. What's that? The Sharpe ratio is a financial metric that is used to evaluate an investment return relative to its risk. It calculates the excess return per unit of volatility. A high Sharpe ratio would be the result, for example, of strong returns coupled with low volatility. Every institutional investor covets that. Now, for many institutional investors, post-great financial crisis, a great appeal of private equity is, ironically, its opacity. Investing in public markets provides a valuation every day. Investing in private equity appears to create smoother volatility because prices are given only on occasion. This allowed institutional investors to claim that they had greater Sharpe ratios than they did when they invested more in public markets pre-GFC. Some commentators call this volatility laundering. Now, it's totally true that the private equity strategy worked very well for many years by employing leverage during periods of low rates and financial repression. That private equity is also less volatile is just plain wrong. Just because you don't get a daily price does not mean that the asset class is less volatile. It just appears to be less volatile. And now, the private equity sector is buried in software. So much for the Sharpe ratio. Let's get back to private credit. Not a week goes by without new bad news from the world of private credit. At the end of last week, Blue Owl announced that it had received elevated redemption requests for two of its private credit funds for the first quarter of 2026. The firm's flagship, OCIC, with about $36 billion in assets under management, received redemption requests of an astonishing 21.9%. Blue Owl's smaller tech-oriented fund, OTIC, which is $3.3 billion in size, redeemed redemption requests of 41% during the same period. The firm capped redemptions at 5%. Wow. These redemption levels are unheard of. Also this week, Carlyle's flagship private credit fund, the Carlyle Tactical Private Credit Fund, CTAC, with $7 billion in assets, got a 16% redemption notice but only honored t

Podcast episode (The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 55) featuring retired U.S. Army officer John Spencer discussing what is actually happening in the Iran war and how headlines may mischaracterize it. The source text provides no concrete new operational details, policy actions, sanctions, or timeline—so it’s more context-setting than a discrete tradable catalyst.

Podcast episode description only (no specific tickers mentioned): Steve Eisman and Baird software analyst Rob Oliver discuss why software stocks have been heavily sold off over the past year and the risk of “catching a falling knife” in the sector. Likely themes include multiple compression, rate sensitivity/duration, growth deceleration, and how/when to re-enter the group.

Podcast discussion (Eisman with Strategas’ Jason Trennert) framing current market action as “risk-off”: stocks down, gold up, oil up, crypto down (more than NASDAQ). Key macro driver highlighted is renewed tariff rhetoric (Trump threatening tariffs vs Europe), with the view it may be negotiating leverage but still creates headline risk and potential repeat of prior tariff-driven corrections. Overall this is thematic macro commentary rather than a concrete, time-specific catalyst.

Commentary-style weekly wrap describing sharp risk-off moves: silver down ~26% and bitcoin down ~24% attributed to panic selling/forced liquidations; “software stocks” described as getting “obliterated.” Also frames AI/LLM competition as a CapEx arms race, implying mega-cap platforms (esp. Google) can outspend venture-backed challengers; suggests OpenAI would be vulnerable if VC funding tightens. The excerpt references “two stock recommendations,” but the specific tickers are not provided here.

Podcast discussion (Eisman w/ Lakshmi Ganapathi, Unicus Research) arguing that headline bank/credit metrics look fine but “under the hood” US consumers are increasingly stressed; the mismatch between soft data (very weak sentiment) and reported credit quality may foreshadow later-stage deterioration in delinquencies/charge-offs and weaker discretionary demand.

Steve Eisman argues the current selloff is being amplified by “AI panic,” with investors quick to dump software and broader risk assets on little provocation. He highlights Molina’s weak results as a symptom of deeper, structural issues in the health insurance/managed-care business (collapsed P/E multiples reflect deteriorating fundamentals, not just sentiment) and expects fixes to take longer than the market hopes. Consumer data is bifurcated: lower-end consumer is weakening while higher-end spending is still supporting aggregates.

Podcast discussion on AI/LLMs (including hallucinations and “agentic AI”) framed around hyperscalers materially increasing capex (cited ~$650B across top four) to build AI infrastructure. It’s more thematic than company-specific: near-term beneficiary narrative is AI compute/networking/power supply chain; key risk narrative is that LLM limitations (hallucinations, reliability) and uncertain ROI could slow enterprise adoption and capex intensity.

On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the market volatility driven by the War in Iran. He also dives into growing concerns around private credit and whether risks are... The big news of the week, of course, started over the weekend with the United States and Israel bombing Iran. Once again, Bitcoin in a crisis correlates with tech stocks and does not act as a hedge. The news keeps getting worse in private credit land. A fraud was uncovered. This is the third lending fraud that has been exposed during the last six months. Block is laying off 4,000 employees, which is 40% of its workforce. Is this the start of massive white-collar layoffs or is it company-specific? I don't know yet, but it is worrisome. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending Friday, March 6, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, March 5th. Before we start, I want to point out that I am on Professor Scott Galloway's podcast called The Professor G Pod that drops today, this Friday. And now for the wrap. This week's wrap is about the power of a narrative in new and ongoing situations. In an odd way, despite a war, the rest of the week h