Iran War Volatility, Private Credit Fears Grow, & Solar Continues to Crash | The Weekly Wrap

Iran War Volatility, Private Credit Fears Grow, & Solar Continues to Crash | The Weekly Wrap On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the market volatility driven by the War in Iran. He also dives into growing concerns around private credit and whether risks are... The big news of the week, of course, started over the weekend with the United States and Israel bombing Iran. Once again, Bitcoin in a crisis correlates with tech stocks and does not act as a hedge. The news keeps getting worse in private credit land. A fraud was uncovered. This is the third lending fraud that has been exposed during the last six months. Block is laying off 4,000 employees, which is 40% of its workforce. Is this the start of massive white-collar layoffs or is it company-specific? I don't know yet, but it is worrisome. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending Friday, March 6, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, March 5th. Before we start, I want to point out that I am on Professor Scott Galloway's podcast called The Professor G Pod that drops today, this Friday. And now for the wrap. This week's wrap is about the power of a narrative in new and ongoing situations. In an odd way, despite a war, the rest of the week had very little news, so I will explore the ongoing situations. I'm going to cover the following. One, war in Iran and the investment implications. Two, more bad news in private credit, private equity land. Three, more disaster in the solar sector. Four, more bad news in health insurance and software. And there will be two mailbags. The first deals with private credit, and the second is a follow-up to our life insurance interview with Tom Gober. So let's get started. The big news of the week, of course, started over the weekend with the United States and Israel bombing Iran and killing Ayatollah Khamenei and much of Iran's top leadership. I would just point out that once again, Bitcoin did not act as a hedge for uncertainty. Over the weekend, as the war raged, oil, gold, and silver were all up a lot, and Bitcoin went down. By Monday, the market opened down and then rallied back. NASDAQ ended Monday slightly up and Bitcoin went up with it all day, as usual. Once again, Bitcoin in a crisis correlates with tech stocks and does not act as a hedge. In addition, and almost needless to say, all travel stocks in reaction to the news of the crisis went down on Monday, from airlines to cruise lines to travel booking companies. And yet, despite futures on Monday being down, the market rallied throughout the day and closed flat, probably because there was a realization that the U.S. will win and perhaps the Mideast will be remade for the better. By the end of the week, the travel stocks rallied with other software stocks as the software narrative looked a little bit better. More on that in a bit. Two things remain true. The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks remains very high, and retail investors continue to buy every single dip. I'd also point out that on Tuesday, the market corrected again as the realization grew that this war will take more than just a few days. Now, usually, in times of uncertainty, yields on U.S. Treasuries go down as investors seek safety and buy Treasury bonds. Not this time. Yields are going up because oil prices are up and there is fear that oil price increases could lead to inflation. By the way, one market did freak out. On Wednesday, the KOSPI, the Korean stock market, was down 12% and then rallied back 10% on Thursday. That's volatility. On Wednesday, the U.S. market had a nice rally as oil prices went down. And on Thursday, the market went back down. All the volatility is due to investors trying to figure out the implications of the Iran war. And I imagine this volatility will continue for weeks. Moving on. The news keeps getting worse in private credit land. Four pieces of bad news. First, a fraud was uncovered. A U.K.-based private lender called Market Financial Solutions with a loan book of $2.4 billion is being liquidated and it looks like there is double pledging of assets. Some major firms are exposed, including Barclays, Apollo, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo. While MFS is not a big lender, this is the third lending fraud that has been exposed during the last six months. The other two being Tricolor and First Brands. Once again, a lack of adequate due diligence allowed fraud to grow unhindered. Double pledging assets is discoverable, or it would be if the private asset lenders were more careful. Second piece of news. Another relatively small private credit manager in Vico Capital, at least that's how I think it's pronounced, that manages around $3 billion, has been receiving large redemption requests for one of its funds from its institutional investors. To deal with these redemption requests, InVico adopted what is called a structured liquidity management plan. Now, what that exactly is was unclear from press reports, but it sounds like some form of gating where InVico restricts redemptions as it tries to wind down the fund. So now it looks like it is not only retail investors who are getting fearful of private credit, but institutional investors are worrying as well. Because of this, on

Iran War Volatility, Private Credit Fears Grow, & Solar Continues to Crash | The Weekly Wrap On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the market volatility driven by the War in Iran. He also dives into growing concerns around private credit and whether risks are... The big news of the week, of course, started over the weekend with the United States and Israel bombing Iran. Once again, Bitcoin in a crisis correlates with tech stocks and does not act as a hedge. The news keeps getting worse in private credit land. A fraud was uncovered. This is the third lending fraud that has been exposed during the last six months. Block is laying off 4,000 employees, which is 40% of its workforce. Is this the start of massive white-collar layoffs or is it company-specific? I don't know yet, but it is worrisome. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending Friday, March 6, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, March 5th. Before we start, I want to point out that I am on Professor Scott Galloway's podcast called The Professor G Pod that drops today, this Friday. And now for the wrap. This week's wrap is about the power of a narrative in new and ongoing situations. In an odd way, despite a war, the rest of the week had very little news, so I will explore the ongoing situations. I'm going to cover the following. One, war in Iran and the investment implications. Two, more bad news in private credit, private equity land. Three, more disaster in the solar sector. Four, more bad news in health insurance and software. And there will be two mailbags. The first deals with private credit, and the second is a follow-up to our life insurance interview with Tom Gober. So let's get started. The big news of the week, of course, started over the weekend with the United States and Israel bombing Iran and killing Ayatollah Khamenei and much of Iran's top leadership. I would just point out that once again, Bitcoin did not act as a hedge for uncertainty. Over the weekend, as the war raged, oil, gold, and silver were all up a lot, and Bitcoin went down. By Monday, the market opened down and then rallied back. NASDAQ ended Monday slightly up and Bitcoin went up with it all day, as usual. Once again, Bitcoin in a crisis correlates with tech stocks and does not act as a hedge. In addition, and almost needless to say, all travel stocks in reaction to the news of the crisis went down on Monday, from airlines to cruise lines to travel booking companies. And yet, despite futures on Monday being down, the market rallied throughout the day and closed flat, probably because there was a realization that the U.S. will win and perhaps the Mideast will be remade for the better. By the end of the week, the travel stocks rallied with other software stocks as the software narrative looked a little bit better. More on that in a bit. Two things remain true. The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks remains very high, and retail investors continue to buy every single dip. I'd also point out that on Tuesday, the market corrected again as the realization grew that this war will take more than just a few days. Now, usually, in times of uncertainty, yields on U.S. Treasuries go down as investors seek safety and buy Treasury bonds. Not this time. Yields are going up because oil prices are up and there is fear that oil price increases could lead to inflation. By the way, one market did freak out. On Wednesday, the KOSPI, the Korean stock market, was down 12% and then rallied back 10% on Thursday. That's volatility. On Wednesday, the U.S. market had a nice rally as oil prices went down. And on Thursday, the market went back down. All the volatility is due to investors trying to figure out the implications of the Iran war. And I imagine this volatility will continue for weeks. Moving on. The news keeps getting worse in private credit land. Four pieces of bad news. First, a fraud was uncovered. A U.K.-based private lender called Market Financial Solutions with a loan book of $2.4 billion is being liquidated and it looks like there is double pledging of assets. Some major firms are exposed, including Barclays, Apollo, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo. While MFS is not a big lender, this is the third lending fraud that has been exposed during the last six months. The other two being Tricolor and First Brands. Once again, a lack of adequate due diligence allowed fraud to grow unhindered. Double pledging assets is discoverable, or it would be if the private asset lenders were more careful. Second piece of news. Another relatively small private credit manager in Vico Capital, at least that's how I think it's pronounced, that manages around $3 billion, has been receiving large redemption requests for one of its funds from its institutional investors. To deal with these redemption requests, InVico adopted what is called a structured liquidity management plan. Now, what that exactly is was unclear from press reports, but it sounds like some form of gating where InVico restricts redemptions as it tries to wind down the fund. So now it looks like it is not only retail investors who are getting fearful of private credit, but institutional investors are worrying as well. Because of this, on

Podcast episode (The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 55) featuring retired U.S. Army officer John Spencer discussing what is actually happening in the Iran war and how headlines may mischaracterize it. The source text provides no concrete new operational details, policy actions, sanctions, or timeline—so it’s more context-setting than a discrete tradable catalyst.

Podcast episode description only (no specific tickers mentioned): Steve Eisman and Baird software analyst Rob Oliver discuss why software stocks have been heavily sold off over the past year and the risk of “catching a falling knife” in the sector. Likely themes include multiple compression, rate sensitivity/duration, growth deceleration, and how/when to re-enter the group.

Podcast discussion (Eisman with Strategas’ Jason Trennert) framing current market action as “risk-off”: stocks down, gold up, oil up, crypto down (more than NASDAQ). Key macro driver highlighted is renewed tariff rhetoric (Trump threatening tariffs vs Europe), with the view it may be negotiating leverage but still creates headline risk and potential repeat of prior tariff-driven corrections. Overall this is thematic macro commentary rather than a concrete, time-specific catalyst.

Commentary-style weekly wrap describing sharp risk-off moves: silver down ~26% and bitcoin down ~24% attributed to panic selling/forced liquidations; “software stocks” described as getting “obliterated.” Also frames AI/LLM competition as a CapEx arms race, implying mega-cap platforms (esp. Google) can outspend venture-backed challengers; suggests OpenAI would be vulnerable if VC funding tightens. The excerpt references “two stock recommendations,” but the specific tickers are not provided here.

Podcast discussion (Eisman w/ Lakshmi Ganapathi, Unicus Research) arguing that headline bank/credit metrics look fine but “under the hood” US consumers are increasingly stressed; the mismatch between soft data (very weak sentiment) and reported credit quality may foreshadow later-stage deterioration in delinquencies/charge-offs and weaker discretionary demand.

Steve Eisman argues the current selloff is being amplified by “AI panic,” with investors quick to dump software and broader risk assets on little provocation. He highlights Molina’s weak results as a symptom of deeper, structural issues in the health insurance/managed-care business (collapsed P/E multiples reflect deteriorating fundamentals, not just sentiment) and expects fixes to take longer than the market hopes. Consumer data is bifurcated: lower-end consumer is weakening while higher-end spending is still supporting aggregates.

Podcast discussion on AI/LLMs (including hallucinations and “agentic AI”) framed around hyperscalers materially increasing capex (cited ~$650B across top four) to build AI infrastructure. It’s more thematic than company-specific: near-term beneficiary narrative is AI compute/networking/power supply chain; key risk narrative is that LLM limitations (hallucinations, reliability) and uncertain ROI could slow enterprise adoption and capex intensity.

On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the market volatility driven by the War in Iran. He also dives into growing concerns around private credit and whether risks are... The big news of the week, of course, started over the weekend with the United States and Israel bombing Iran. Once again, Bitcoin in a crisis correlates with tech stocks and does not act as a hedge. The news keeps getting worse in private credit land. A fraud was uncovered. This is the third lending fraud that has been exposed during the last six months. Block is laying off 4,000 employees, which is 40% of its workforce. Is this the start of massive white-collar layoffs or is it company-specific? I don't know yet, but it is worrisome. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending Friday, March 6, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, March 5th. Before we start, I want to point out that I am on Professor Scott Galloway's podcast called The Professor G Pod that drops today, this Friday. And now for the wrap. This week's wrap is about the power of a narrative in new and ongoing situations. In an odd way, despite a war, the rest of the week h