yc989
@yc989
Past bets that played out
These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.
Post is a negative opinion about private prediction-market company Kalshi, referencing a rumored/claimed CFO departure and skepticism about its pre-IPO valuation/metrics. No public-market ticker is mentioned; Polymarket is referenced but is also not a listed equity. Actionability for trading is low.
Post warns Celsius (crypto lender) is burning ~50k ETH/week and may run out of liquid ETH in ~5 weeks, implying inability to honor redemptions due to stETH illiquidity and eventual redemption gating. This is a crypto-liquidity/solvency contagion thesis rather than a public-equity-specific call.
Post alleges Celsius ($CEL) is "functionally insolvent" due to an ETH liquidity mismatch: only 27% of its ETH is liquid while the remainder is in stETH or ETH2 staking (illiquid for ~1 year), implying heightened withdrawal/run risk and potential forced selling/peg stress in related assets.
What this channel is watching now
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Latest videos and market context
Recent source posts from this author. Create an account to inspect the complete persisted research trail.
yc @yc989 38m Ceteris paribus bullish Ossof and Newsom New York Magazine @NYMag 2h Democrats appear to have set a who...
Single short political post about 2028 Democratic primary calendar changes; expresses a generic political sentiment (“bullish Ossof and Newsom”). No explicit market, sector, or company/ticker implications; no tradeable catalyst described.
yc @yc989 11h “Maybe he had stories with his own heroes and dead friends that I could appreciate and respect, ones th...
Non-market social post sharing a NYT article about war, loss, memory, and forgiveness. No finance, macro, sector, or company content. No cashtags. Not actionable for investing.
yc @yc989 15h Kalshi is a plague on society and I’m not just saying that because I faded investing in it at $1B (I di...
Post is a negative opinion about private prediction-market company Kalshi, referencing a rumored/claimed CFO departure and skepticism about its pre-IPO valuation/metrics. No public-market ticker is mentioned; Polymarket is referenced but is also not a listed equity. Actionability for trading is low.
Pinned yc @yc989 Nov 4, 2024 trump is going to win, I don’t think it will be particularly close people will look back...
Single political/election prediction post: speaker asserts Trump will win (not close) and implies market pricing/odds were still “50/50” despite a “big lead in Nevada.” No cashtags, no specific sectors, no explicit trade, and no defined catalyst window beyond the election context.
Proof-backed call history
These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.
Post is a negative opinion about private prediction-market company Kalshi, referencing a rumored/claimed CFO departure and skepticism about its pre-IPO valuation/metrics. No public-market ticker is mentioned; Polymarket is referenced but is also not a listed equity. Actionability for trading is low.
Post warns Celsius (crypto lender) is burning ~50k ETH/week and may run out of liquid ETH in ~5 weeks, implying inability to honor redemptions due to stETH illiquidity and eventual redemption gating. This is a crypto-liquidity/solvency contagion thesis rather than a public-equity-specific call.
Post alleges Celsius ($CEL) is "functionally insolvent" due to an ETH liquidity mismatch: only 27% of its ETH is liquid while the remainder is in stETH or ETH2 staking (illiquid for ~1 year), implying heightened withdrawal/run risk and potential forced selling/peg stress in related assets.
Single political/election prediction post: speaker asserts Trump will win (not close) and implies market pricing/odds were still “50/50” despite a “big lead in Nevada.” No cashtags, no specific sectors, no explicit trade, and no defined catalyst window beyond the election context.
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@yc989
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