yc989
Short-form research and commentary emphasizing crypto liquidity dynamics (notably ETH) and event-driven views. Posts are tactical and thesis-driven, often calling attention to solvency and redemption risks in crypto counterparties.
Past bets that played out
Notable posts include a political/election prediction asserting a decisive Trump victory, and a concentrated crypto-liquidity thesis that Celsius is effectively insolvent — arguing Celsius is burning ~50k ETH/week, holds only ~27% liquid ETH, and could exhaust liquid ETH in ~5 weeks, risking forced selling, redemption gating, and contagion to stETH/peg-sensitive assets.
Single political/election prediction post: speaker asserts Trump will win (not close) and implies market pricing/odds were still “50/50” despite a “big lead in Nevada.” No cashtags, no specific sectors, no explicit trade, and no defined catalyst window beyond the election context.
Post warns Celsius (crypto lender) is burning ~50k ETH/week and may run out of liquid ETH in ~5 weeks, implying inability to honor redemptions due to stETH illiquidity and eventual redemption gating. This is a crypto-liquidity/solvency contagion thesis rather than a public-equity-specific call.
Post alleges Celsius ($CEL) is "functionally insolvent" due to an ETH liquidity mismatch: only 27% of its ETH is liquid while the remainder is in stETH or ETH2 staking (illiquid for ~1 year), implying heightened withdrawal/run risk and potential forced selling/peg stress in related assets.
What this channel is watching now
Primary focus is Ethereum (ETH) and crypto-liquidity risk; occasional mentions of small-cap equity/other tokens such as PZG. Conviction indicators: ETH (avg conviction 0.445, 2 mentions), PZG (avg conviction 0.32, 1 mention).
Latest videos and market context
No video content available; activity is centered on short-form posts and replies on platform.
yc @yc989 38m Ceteris paribus bullish Ossof and Newsom New York Magazine @NYMag 2h Democrats appear to have set a who...
Single short political post about 2028 Democratic primary calendar changes; expresses a generic political sentiment (“bullish Ossof and Newsom”). No explicit market, sector, or company/ticker implications; no tradeable catalyst described.
yc @yc989 11h “Maybe he had stories with his own heroes and dead friends that I could appreciate and respect, ones th...
Non-market social post sharing a NYT article about war, loss, memory, and forgiveness. No finance, macro, sector, or company content. No cashtags. Not actionable for investing.
yc @yc989 15h Kalshi is a plague on society and I’m not just saying that because I faded investing in it at $1B (I di...
Post is a negative opinion about private prediction-market company Kalshi, referencing a rumored/claimed CFO departure and skepticism about its pre-IPO valuation/metrics. No public-market ticker is mentioned; Polymarket is referenced but is also not a listed equity. Actionability for trading is low.
Pinned yc @yc989 Nov 4, 2024 trump is going to win, I don’t think it will be particularly close people will look back...
Single political/election prediction post: speaker asserts Trump will win (not close) and implies market pricing/odds were still “50/50” despite a “big lead in Nevada.” No cashtags, no specific sectors, no explicit trade, and no defined catalyst window beyond the election context.
Proof-backed call history
Active short-form poster with three evaluated, thesis-driven recommendations centered on crypto solvency and one political prediction. Historical performance (evaluated sample): average return −4.27% across 3 evaluated items; win rate 0% in that sample.
Post is a negative opinion about private prediction-market company Kalshi, referencing a rumored/claimed CFO departure and skepticism about its pre-IPO valuation/metrics. No public-market ticker is mentioned; Polymarket is referenced but is also not a listed equity. Actionability for trading is low.
Post warns Celsius (crypto lender) is burning ~50k ETH/week and may run out of liquid ETH in ~5 weeks, implying inability to honor redemptions due to stETH illiquidity and eventual redemption gating. This is a crypto-liquidity/solvency contagion thesis rather than a public-equity-specific call.
Post alleges Celsius ($CEL) is "functionally insolvent" due to an ETH liquidity mismatch: only 27% of its ETH is liquid while the remainder is in stETH or ETH2 staking (illiquid for ~1 year), implying heightened withdrawal/run risk and potential forced selling/peg stress in related assets.
Single political/election prediction post: speaker asserts Trump will win (not close) and implies market pricing/odds were still “50/50” despite a “big lead in Nevada.” No cashtags, no specific sectors, no explicit trade, and no defined catalyst window beyond the election context.
About this channel
yc989 publishes concise, tactical commentary on crypto markets, highlighting liquidity mismatches, staking illiquidity, and redemption risk. Content is primarily observational and event-driven rather than long-form fundamental equity research.
@yc989
Most recognized assets
Unlock the full track record
Follow @yc989 for real-time short-form alerts on crypto liquidity developments and tactical price-level notes.