paulgauthier
@paulgauthier
Past bets that played out
These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.
A tweet notes Gemini 2.5 Pro’s leaderboard entry now includes benchmark costs because it’s available via paid API, and claims it cost ~$6 to run the aider polyglot coding benchmark—cheaper than most top-10 entries except DeepSeek. This is mildly supportive of Google’s AI price/performance competitiveness, but it’s a narrow, third-party benchmark datapoint and not a financial metric.
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
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Paul Gauthier @paulgauthier Apr 12, 2025 Gemini 2.5 Pro's leaderboard entry has been updated with costs, now that it ...
A tweet notes Gemini 2.5 Pro’s leaderboard entry now includes benchmark costs because it’s available via paid API, and claims it cost ~$6 to run the aider polyglot coding benchmark—cheaper than most top-10 entries except DeepSeek. This is mildly supportive of Google’s AI price/performance competitiveness, but it’s a narrow, third-party benchmark datapoint and not a financial metric.
Paul Gauthier @paulgauthier Jan 24, 2025 R1+Sonnet set a new SOTA on the aider polyglot benchmark, at 14X less cost c...
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
Proof-backed call history
These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.
A tweet notes Gemini 2.5 Pro’s leaderboard entry now includes benchmark costs because it’s available via paid API, and claims it cost ~$6 to run the aider polyglot coding benchmark—cheaper than most top-10 entries except DeepSeek. This is mildly supportive of Google’s AI price/performance competitiveness, but it’s a narrow, third-party benchmark datapoint and not a financial metric.
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
Tweet claims a new state-of-the-art result on the aider polyglot coding benchmark: a combo “R1+Sonnet” scores 64% vs “o1” at 62%, with “14x less cost” than o1. This is an AI-model performance/cost datapoint, but it’s not directly tied to any public company product, revenue, or pricing; tradable implications are therefore limited and mostly second-order (AI compute demand, competitive positioning of model providers, and inference-cost pressure).
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