x@natfriedman
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Thesis calls
12
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Past bets that played out

These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.

GOOGLopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 14 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...
AMZNopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 14 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...
MSFTopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 16 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...

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Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...

Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDT

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jan 25, 2025 The deepseek team is obviously really good. China is full of talented engineer...

Jan 25, 2025, 12:26 AM EST

Tweet asserts DeepSeek team is highly capable and that China has strong engineering talent; implies credible Chinese AI competition rather than dismissible “cope.” Limited direct trading catalysts, but it supports a broader thesis of intensifying AI competition and potential relative beneficiaries among Chinese AI/platform names vs. pressure on US AI moat narratives.

Nat Friedman @natfriedman Feb 5, 2024 Ten months ago, we launched the Vesuvius Challenge to solve the ancient problem...

Feb 5, 2024, 9:56 AM EST

Announcement that the Vesuvius Challenge (a prize-driven AI + imaging effort) succeeded in reading parts of the carbonized Herculaneum Papyri. It highlights real-world progress in applied machine learning, computer vision, and high-performance computing for scientific/heritage use-cases, but contains no direct company/earnings/capital-markets catalyst.

Proof-backed call history

These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.

GOOGLopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 14 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...
AMZNopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 14 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...
MSFTopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 16 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...
AMDopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 18 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...
NVDAopen

Social post: Vesuvius Challenge reports progress reading Herculaneum scrolls (new unwrapping algorithm; full scroll read) and launches a $1M grand prize plus other prizes. No direct public-company catalysts mentioned; only a weak/indirect read-through to AI/computer-vision tooling and GPU/cloud demand.

Mentioned: Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM EDTConviction: 22 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jul 16 Vesuvius Challenge has been quietly making a lot of progress; we read a full scroll,...
METAopen

Tweet asserts DeepSeek team is highly capable and that China has strong engineering talent; implies credible Chinese AI competition rather than dismissible “cope.” Limited direct trading catalysts, but it supports a broader thesis of intensifying AI competition and potential relative beneficiaries among Chinese AI/platform names vs. pressure on US AI moat narratives.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:49 PM EDTConviction: 15 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jan 25, 2025 The deepseek team is obviously really good. China is full of talented engineer...
TCEHYopen

Tweet asserts DeepSeek team is highly capable and that China has strong engineering talent; implies credible Chinese AI competition rather than dismissible “cope.” Limited direct trading catalysts, but it supports a broader thesis of intensifying AI competition and potential relative beneficiaries among Chinese AI/platform names vs. pressure on US AI moat narratives.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:49 PM EDTConviction: 24 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jan 25, 2025 The deepseek team is obviously really good. China is full of talented engineer...
BABAopen

Tweet asserts DeepSeek team is highly capable and that China has strong engineering talent; implies credible Chinese AI competition rather than dismissible “cope.” Limited direct trading catalysts, but it supports a broader thesis of intensifying AI competition and potential relative beneficiaries among Chinese AI/platform names vs. pressure on US AI moat narratives.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:49 PM EDTConviction: 25 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jan 25, 2025 The deepseek team is obviously really good. China is full of talented engineer...
BIDUopen

Tweet asserts DeepSeek team is highly capable and that China has strong engineering talent; implies credible Chinese AI competition rather than dismissible “cope.” Limited direct trading catalysts, but it supports a broader thesis of intensifying AI competition and potential relative beneficiaries among Chinese AI/platform names vs. pressure on US AI moat narratives.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:49 PM EDTConviction: 28 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Jan 25, 2025 The deepseek team is obviously really good. China is full of talented engineer...
GOOGLopen

Announcement that the Vesuvius Challenge (a prize-driven AI + imaging effort) succeeded in reading parts of the carbonized Herculaneum Papyri. It highlights real-world progress in applied machine learning, computer vision, and high-performance computing for scientific/heritage use-cases, but contains no direct company/earnings/capital-markets catalyst.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:48 PM EDTConviction: 37 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Feb 5, 2024 Ten months ago, we launched the Vesuvius Challenge to solve the ancient problem...
MSFTopen

Announcement that the Vesuvius Challenge (a prize-driven AI + imaging effort) succeeded in reading parts of the carbonized Herculaneum Papyri. It highlights real-world progress in applied machine learning, computer vision, and high-performance computing for scientific/heritage use-cases, but contains no direct company/earnings/capital-markets catalyst.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:48 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Feb 5, 2024 Ten months ago, we launched the Vesuvius Challenge to solve the ancient problem...
NVDAopen

Announcement that the Vesuvius Challenge (a prize-driven AI + imaging effort) succeeded in reading parts of the carbonized Herculaneum Papyri. It highlights real-world progress in applied machine learning, computer vision, and high-performance computing for scientific/heritage use-cases, but contains no direct company/earnings/capital-markets catalyst.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 11:48 PM EDTConviction: 46 / 100
Source: Nat Friedman @natfriedman Feb 5, 2024 Ten months ago, we launched the Vesuvius Challenge to solve the ancient problem...

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