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kimi_moonshot

@kimi_moonshot

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Past bets that played out

These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.

SMCIopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...
ANETopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 44 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...
AVGOopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 45 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...

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Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...

Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Design Arena @DesignArena 5h BREAKING: Kimi K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is 1st overall on 3D Design with an Elo of 1450. Thi...

Jul 21, 2026, 12:42 PM EDT

Post claims Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) ranks #1 on Design Arena 3D Design leaderboard (Elo 1450), jumping 6 positions and +108 Elo vs Kimi K2.6; says Kimi K2.6 is ~82 Elo ahead of Anthropic’s “Claude Fable 5” in #2. This is a model-benchmark headline about private AI labs, with limited direct tradable linkage.

Arena.ai @arena 25m Exciting update: Kimi K3 has landed at #4 on the Agent Arena leaderboard, matching Claude Opus 4....

Jul 20, 2026, 1:12 PM EDT

Arena.ai reports Kimi K3 has reached #4 on the Agent Arena leaderboard (tying Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.6 Sol) and is #1 on the Frontend Code Arena. If Kimi K3 releases open weights by July 27, it would become the top-ranked open-weight model, implying improved open-model competitiveness in agentic/coding tasks.

Kimi.ai @Kimi_Moonshot 14m Kimi K3 has received far more love than we expected, and our GPUs are feeling it. Over the...

Jul 19, 2026, 10:52 AM EDT

Kimi.ai (Moonshot) says its Kimi K3 demand over the last 48 hours is near capacity limits; to protect existing subscribers it is temporarily pausing new subscriptions. This is a datapoint of strong AI inference demand but also highlights near-term GPU/compute scarcity and potential revenue throttling for AI app providers without enough capacity.

Proof-backed call history

These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.

SMCIopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...
ANETopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 44 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...
AVGOopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 45 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...
AMDopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 47 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...
NVDAopen

Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3 (Moonshot) ranks #2 on the AA-Briefcase agentic knowledge-work benchmark (behind “Fable 5”) but is expensive to run—costing more than “Opus 4.8” while taking ~1 hour per task on average. Moonshot released Kimi K3 last week; it is described as a 2.8T-parameter model and scores 57 on an Artificial Analysis metric.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 7:51 PM EDTConviction: 55 / 100
Source: Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys 4h Kimi K3 is second only to Fable 5 on AA-Briefcase, our agentic knowledge work...
ANTHROPICopen

...and 87 Elo ahead of Show more 40 4 0 121 1 2 1 1.1K 1 . 1 K 63K 6 3 K Post claims Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) ranks #1 on Design Arena 3D Design leaderboard (Elo 1450), jumping 6 positions and +108 Elo vs Kimi K2.6; says Kimi K2.6 is ~82 Elo ahead of Anthropic’s “Claude Fable 5” in #2. This is a model-benchmark headline about private AI labs, with limited direct tradable linkage.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 12:42 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: Design Arena @DesignArena 5h BREAKING: Kimi K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is 1st overall on 3D Design with an Elo of 1450. Thi...
BABAopen

Post claims Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) ranks #1 on Design Arena 3D Design leaderboard (Elo 1450), jumping 6 positions and +108 Elo vs Kimi K2.6; says Kimi K2.6 is ~82 Elo ahead of Anthropic’s “Claude Fable 5” in #2. This is a model-benchmark headline about private AI labs, with limited direct tradable linkage.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 12:42 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100
Source: Design Arena @DesignArena 5h BREAKING: Kimi K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is 1st overall on 3D Design with an Elo of 1450. Thi...
GOOGLopen

Post claims Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) ranks #1 on Design Arena 3D Design leaderboard (Elo 1450), jumping 6 positions and +108 Elo vs Kimi K2.6; says Kimi K2.6 is ~82 Elo ahead of Anthropic’s “Claude Fable 5” in #2. This is a model-benchmark headline about private AI labs, with limited direct tradable linkage.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 12:42 PM EDTConviction: 25 / 100
Source: Design Arena @DesignArena 5h BREAKING: Kimi K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is 1st overall on 3D Design with an Elo of 1450. Thi...
AMZNopen

Post claims Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) ranks #1 on Design Arena 3D Design leaderboard (Elo 1450), jumping 6 positions and +108 Elo vs Kimi K2.6; says Kimi K2.6 is ~82 Elo ahead of Anthropic’s “Claude Fable 5” in #2. This is a model-benchmark headline about private AI labs, with limited direct tradable linkage.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 12:42 PM EDTConviction: 25 / 100
Source: Design Arena @DesignArena 5h BREAKING: Kimi K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is 1st overall on 3D Design with an Elo of 1450. Thi...
NVDAopen

Post claims Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) ranks #1 on Design Arena 3D Design leaderboard (Elo 1450), jumping 6 positions and +108 Elo vs Kimi K2.6; says Kimi K2.6 is ~82 Elo ahead of Anthropic’s “Claude Fable 5” in #2. This is a model-benchmark headline about private AI labs, with limited direct tradable linkage.

Mentioned: Jul 21, 2026, 12:42 PM EDTConviction: 50 / 100
Source: Design Arena @DesignArena 5h BREAKING: Kimi K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is 1st overall on 3D Design with an Elo of 1450. Thi...
ANTHROPICopen

Arena.ai @arena 25m Exciting update: Kimi K3 has landed at #4 on the Agent Arena leaderboard, matching Claude Opus 4.... Arena.ai @arena 25m Exciting update: Kimi K3 has landed at #4 on the Agent Arena leaderboard, matching Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.6 Sol. If Kimi K3's weights are released on schedule by July 27, it will become the #1 open-weight model....

Mentioned: Jul 20, 2026, 1:12 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: Arena.ai @arena 25m Exciting update: Kimi K3 has landed at #4 on the Agent Arena leaderboard, matching Claude Opus 4....
MSFTopen

Arena.ai reports Kimi K3 has reached #4 on the Agent Arena leaderboard (tying Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.6 Sol) and is #1 on the Frontend Code Arena. If Kimi K3 releases open weights by July 27, it would become the top-ranked open-weight model, implying improved open-model competitiveness in agentic/coding tasks.

Mentioned: Jul 20, 2026, 1:12 PM EDTConviction: 38 / 100
Source: Arena.ai @arena 25m Exciting update: Kimi K3 has landed at #4 on the Agent Arena leaderboard, matching Claude Opus 4....

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