K

kawzinvests

I publish concise, conviction-weighted trade ideas and thematic takes on tech, defense, and data-network companies. Coverage emphasizes product-led disruption (AST SpaceMobile), data/network advantages (Pagaya, PGY), and defense supply-chain/competitive moats (Kraken Robotics, KRKNF / PNG.V).

Trust score
0 / 100
Track record
0 / 100
Thesis calls
14
Evaluated calls
13
Average return
+64.04%
Win rate
62%

Past bets that played out

Notable recent calls include a product-centric bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellites (ASTS), a valuation and data-advantage argument for Pagaya (PGY), and a defensive-moat case for Kraken Robotics (KRKNF / PNG.V) tied to shifting procurement mindsets. These are framed as medium-to-high conviction thematic trades backed by product or data narratives rather than near-term earnings catalysts.

SOI.PArightbacktest HOLD

Post highlights a strong Soitec quarterly print: Q1 revenue beat by €6m and Q2 guidance implies 30%+ growth vs ~4% consensus; ties product (engineered wafers) to AI photonics adoption, implying positive earnings/momentum catalyst for Soitec.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:13 PM EDTConviction: 62 / 100Return: +347.84%Observed price: $115.25
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 1h Soitec shares surged 22% after Q1 revenue beat Wall Street estimates by €6 million. Q2 gu...
KRKNFrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post cites Palmer Luckey saying Anduril plans products assuming a potential China move on Taiwan in 2027 (“China 2027” internal policy). Author asserts this mindset “explains why” Kraken Robotics has a strong moat, implying increased urgency/demand for relevant defense capabilities and/or supply-chain constraints that favor Kraken ($KRKNF / $PNG.V). Evidence is suggestive but not specific (no contract, financials, or product details in the excerpt).

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:08 PM EDTConviction: 54 / 100Return: +235.25%
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests Oct 28, 2025 Palmer Luckey on Rogan: "Anduril has an internal policy called China 2027. Anyt...
PNG.Vrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post cites Palmer Luckey saying Anduril plans products assuming a potential China move on Taiwan in 2027 (“China 2027” internal policy). Author asserts this mindset “explains why” Kraken Robotics has a strong moat, implying increased urgency/demand for relevant defense capabilities and/or supply-chain constraints that favor Kraken ($KRKNF / $PNG.V). Evidence is suggestive but not specific (no contract, financials, or product details in the excerpt).

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:08 PM EDTConviction: 54 / 100Return: +225.96%
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests Oct 28, 2025 Palmer Luckey on Rogan: "Anduril has an internal policy called China 2027. Anyt...

What this channel is watching now

Active focus on: KRKNF (mentioned 3x, conviction 0.3667) and PNG.V (mentioned 2x, conviction 0.385) as defense/robotics exposures; PGY (conviction 0.62) for its data/network advantage and improving profitability; ASTS (conviction 0.52) for a product-disruption thesis around BlueBird satellites.

Latest videos and market context

Short-form posts and thread-style analyses that emphasize product capabilities, network effects, and market positioning. Recent pieces include ASTS BlueBird capability notes, a Pagaya valuation/advantage thread, and commentary linking defense vendor moats to industry strategy shifts.

KawzInvests @KawzInvests 1h Claude Opus 5 is live. Five dollars per million input tokens, half of Fable 5, and it bea...

Jul 24, 2026, 1:22 PM EDT

Post claims Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 is live and materially cheaper than a competing model (“Fable 5”), with better coding/knowledge-work performance; follow-up notes deployment trackers show Opus 5 appearing across providers but nothing is confirmed by Anthropic. No public tickers or cashtags are mentioned; implications are mostly thematic (AI model price/performance competition) and unconfirmed.

KawzInvests @KawzInvests 1h Soitec shares surged 22% after Q1 revenue beat Wall Street estimates by €6 million. Q2 gu...

Jul 24, 2026, 1:13 PM EDT

Post highlights a strong Soitec quarterly print: Q1 revenue beat by €6m and Q2 guidance implies 30%+ growth vs ~4% consensus; ties product (engineered wafers) to AI photonics adoption, implying positive earnings/momentum catalyst for Soitec.

KawzInvests @KawzInvests 38m THE SEMICONDUCTOR MESSIAH HAS SPOKEN $NVDA Jensen Huang @JensenHuang 1h For my first pos...

Jul 24, 2026, 9:50 AM EDT

Post amplifies Jensen Huang/NVIDIA letter arguing “open models matter,” with broad claims that AI will transform every industry and that open models improve safety/cybersecurity, accelerate innovation/diffusion, and enable national “sovereignty.” Only explicit ticker is $NVDA; no concrete catalyst, numbers, or positioning/entry/exit guidance.

KawzInvests @KawzInvests 9h $INTC You really can't make this up 🤣 Intel Corp INTC $100.23 -2.33% Kalshi Finance @Kals...

Jul 23, 2026, 7:04 PM EDT

Single social post reacting sarcastically to $INTC price action after earnings; contains a claim that INTC was up ~10% post-earnings, but no explicit forward-looking thesis, catalyst framing beyond “after reporting earnings,” or tradeable setup.

Proof-backed call history

Publishes social research and trade commentary on technology and defense names. Recent activity has spotlighted ASTS, PGY, and Kraken Robotics (KRKNF / PNG.V), combining product claims, data-access analysis, and narrative-driven catalyst speculation.

ANTHROPICopen

...okens, half of Fable 5, and it beats Fable 5 on coding and knowledge work. Told you guys. Off by one day. 😆 KawzInvests @KawzInvests Jul 23 Multiple deployment trackers are now reporting Opus 5 appearing across providers. Nothing confirmed from Anthropic. 👀👀 7 36 11K KawzInvests @KawzInvests 1h Claude Opus 5 is live. Five dollars per million input tokens, half of Fable 5, and it beats Fable 5 on coding and knowledge work. Told you guys. Off by one day. 😆 KawzInvests @KawzInvests Jul 23 Multip

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:22 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 1h Claude Opus 5 is live. Five dollars per million input tokens, half of Fable 5, and it bea...
FIVEwrongbacktest DEMOTE

Post claims Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 is live and materially cheaper than a competing model (“Fable 5”), with better coding/knowledge-work performance; follow-up notes deployment trackers show Opus 5 appearing across providers but nothing is confirmed by Anthropic. No public tickers or cashtags are mentioned; implications are mostly thematic (AI model price/performance competition) and unconfirmed.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:22 PM EDTConviction: 32 / 100Return: -2.86%Observed price: $202.81
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 1h Claude Opus 5 is live. Five dollars per million input tokens, half of Fable 5, and it bea...
SOI.PArightbacktest HOLD

Post highlights a strong Soitec quarterly print: Q1 revenue beat by €6m and Q2 guidance implies 30%+ growth vs ~4% consensus; ties product (engineered wafers) to AI photonics adoption, implying positive earnings/momentum catalyst for Soitec.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 1:13 PM EDTConviction: 62 / 100Return: +347.84%Observed price: $115.25
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 1h Soitec shares surged 22% after Q1 revenue beat Wall Street estimates by €6 million. Q2 gu...
NVDArightbacktest HOLD

Post amplifies Jensen Huang/NVIDIA letter arguing “open models matter,” with broad claims that AI will transform every industry and that open models improve safety/cybersecurity, accelerate innovation/diffusion, and enable national “sovereignty.” Only explicit ticker is $NVDA; no concrete catalyst, numbers, or positioning/entry/exit guidance.

Mentioned: Jul 24, 2026, 9:50 AM EDTConviction: 44 / 100Return: +17.10%Observed price: $208.01
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 38m THE SEMICONDUCTOR MESSIAH HAS SPOKEN $NVDA Jensen Huang @JensenHuang 1h For my first pos...
JUSTrightbacktest HOLD

Single social post reacting sarcastically to $INTC price action after earnings; contains a claim that INTC was up ~10% post-earnings, but no explicit forward-looking thesis, catalyst framing beyond “after reporting earnings,” or tradeable setup.

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 7:04 PM EDTConviction: 60 / 100Return: +1.98%Observed price: $105.87
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 9h $INTC You really can't make this up 🤣 Intel Corp INTC $100.23 -2.33% Kalshi Finance @Kals...
INTCrightbacktest HOLD

Single social post reacting sarcastically to $INTC price action after earnings; contains a claim that INTC was up ~10% post-earnings, but no explicit forward-looking thesis, catalyst framing beyond “after reporting earnings,” or tradeable setup.

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 7:04 PM EDTConviction: 85 / 100Return: +14.00%Observed price: $100.23
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 9h $INTC You really can't make this up 🤣 Intel Corp INTC $100.23 -2.33% Kalshi Finance @Kals...
NVECrightbacktest HOLD

Post highlights $NVEC surging ~50% on earnings: revenue, net income, and EPS sharply higher. Author notes a “defense ramp” they were waiting for has not yet appeared in reported numbers; management attributed results to new product sales and strong semiconductor-related demand (text truncated). Mentions $PENG and $AEHR only as prior examples of “small cap coverage” success; no new fundamental claims provided for those tickers in this post.

Mentioned: Jul 23, 2026, 3:32 PM EDTConviction: 56 / 100Return: +15.37%Observed price: $134.21
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests 12h $NVEC is up 50% today. We wrote it up two weeks ago and the defense ramp we were waiting...
ASTSrightbacktest PROMOTE

Single-ticker tech/product claim: AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellites are described as capable of delivering up to 120 Mbps to unmodified phones, positioning the service as scalable and disruptive for rural telecom where tower buildouts are expensive. Actionable mainly as a bullish product-cycle/demand thesis for ASTS; lacks timing/catalyst, financials, or near-term triggers.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:09 PM EDTConviction: 52 / 100Return: +51.57%
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests Jul 23, 2025 $ASTS BlueBird satellites, with 2,400 sq ft arrays, deliver up to 120 Mbps to u...
PGYwrongbacktest DEMOTE

Post argues Pagaya ($PGY) has a structural data/network advantage vs competitors, is undervalued relative to them, and is now profitable with strong margins and growth—implying a bullish long setup driven by scalability and partner-driven training data expansion.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:08 PM EDTConviction: 62 / 100Return: -52.53%
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests Oct 30, 2025 $PGY has 30x the data access of competitors but trades at a discount to them. $...
PNG.Vrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post cites Palmer Luckey saying Anduril plans products assuming a potential China move on Taiwan in 2027 (“China 2027” internal policy). Author asserts this mindset “explains why” Kraken Robotics has a strong moat, implying increased urgency/demand for relevant defense capabilities and/or supply-chain constraints that favor Kraken ($KRKNF / $PNG.V). Evidence is suggestive but not specific (no contract, financials, or product details in the excerpt).

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:08 PM EDTConviction: 54 / 100Return: +225.96%
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests Oct 28, 2025 Palmer Luckey on Rogan: "Anduril has an internal policy called China 2027. Anyt...
KRKNFrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post cites Palmer Luckey saying Anduril plans products assuming a potential China move on Taiwan in 2027 (“China 2027” internal policy). Author asserts this mindset “explains why” Kraken Robotics has a strong moat, implying increased urgency/demand for relevant defense capabilities and/or supply-chain constraints that favor Kraken ($KRKNF / $PNG.V). Evidence is suggestive but not specific (no contract, financials, or product details in the excerpt).

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:08 PM EDTConviction: 54 / 100Return: +235.25%
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests Oct 28, 2025 Palmer Luckey on Rogan: "Anduril has an internal policy called China 2027. Anyt...
KRKNFwrongbacktest DEMOTE

Post highlights that a well-followed “spacemob” participant (Anpanman) publicly disclosed starting a position in Kraken Robotics ($KRKNF) over several days, framed as an “underwater defense play” with an implied upcoming catalyst (“something big is brewing”). Mentions $ASTS only as credibility context (past call), not as a current trade thesis.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 8:08 PM EDTConviction: 33 / 100Return: -7.21%
Source: KawzInvests @KawzInvests Oct 22, 2025 $KRKNF The spacemob legend himself is now a krakhead. When the guy who called $...

About this channel

kawzinvests (@kawzinvests) produces concise, conviction-weighted social research. Work typically highlights product-led disruption, scalable data advantages, and defense-related moats. Analysis is oriented toward actionable thematic ideas but often lacks detailed timing or formal financial models in short posts.

Subscribersn/a
Videosn/a
Win rate62%
Average return+64.04%

@kawzinvests

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Follow @kawzinvests for short, high-conviction takes on tech, defense, and data-network investment ideas. Use social posts as idea triggers and perform your own due diligence before trading.

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