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id_aa_carmack

Market-focused commentary on fuel cells and clean-power equipment. Coverage highlights PLUG, BLDP, FCEL, BE, GNRC and the European-listed LRND.F. Combines technical perspective on fuel-cell physics with practical attention to durability, lifecycle, and commercial viability.

Trust score
0 / 100
Track record
0 / 100
Thesis calls
14
Evaluated calls
14
Average return
-2.04%
Win rate
43%

Past bets that played out

Notable call themes emphasize the distinction between fuel-cell electrical conversion and heat-engine Carnot limits — suggesting higher theoretical electrical output per unit fuel — while repeatedly flagging historical durability and lifespan issues as the key commercial constraint.

FCELrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 28 / 100Return: +95.99%Observed price: $23.69
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...
CATrightbacktest DEMOTE

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 22 / 100Return: -57.83%Observed price: $909.93
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...
Uwrongbacktest HOLD

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100Return: +40.74%Observed price: $29.27
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...

What this channel is watching now

Active monitoring of LRND.F (mentioned twice) and single mentions of BE, PLUG, and BLDP. Additional attention paid to FCEL and GNRC. Research weight leans toward fuel-cell performance, durability, and real-world deployment economics.

Latest videos and market context

Recent posts are short-form commentary and replies; several referenced posts or accounts were deleted and contain no extractable market content. When substantive, posts discuss fuel-cell efficiency versus heat-engine limits and durability trade-offs.

John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack 6h Sometimes I look out over a body of water and think about pixel shaders — superimposed...

Jul 23, 2026, 9:54 PM EDT

John Carmack makes a reflective comment comparing traditional real-time graphics/pixel shader craft to “gen-AI rendering,” implying a broad industry shift in rendering techniques. No companies, products, or investable catalysts are mentioned.

John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...

Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDT

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

@edoardocontente That is surprising!

May 26, 2026, 8:59 PM EDT

The source text only says “That is surprising!” with no context, event, market data, company, sector, or catalyst. It is not actionable for investment analysis.

@joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...

May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDT

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Proof-backed call history

Seven evaluated recommendations with an average return of 9.9054% and a 71.43% win rate across those recommendations. Coverage history mixes direct ticker commentary and technical threads on fuel-cell engineering and longevity.

Uwrongbacktest HOLD

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100Return: +40.74%Observed price: $29.27
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
NTDOYwrongbacktest DEMOTE

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 38 / 100Return: -36.89%Observed price: $10.56
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
SONYwrongbacktest DEMOTE

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100Return: -27.98%Observed price: $20.92
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
MSFTwrongbacktest DEMOTE

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 42 / 100Return: -28.80%Observed price: $390.34
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
METAwrongbacktest DEMOTE

John Carmack publicly confirms he resigned from Meta and notes his internal critique of the company was leaked, creating negative headlines via selective quotes. The actionable market angle is primarily sentiment/management-execution risk around Meta’s VR/Reality Labs strategy and spending efficiency.

Mentioned: Jun 18, 2026, 12:46 AM EDTConviction: 56 / 100Return: +1.84%
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Dec 17, 2022 I resigned from Meta, and my internal post got leaked to the press, resultin...
LRND.Fwrongbacktest DEMOTE

A light, non-market post about using many-core CPUs in a supercomputer to create “pixel art” via per-core utilization patterns in Task Manager. No company, product launch, demand signal, or financial catalyst is referenced.

Mentioned: Jun 18, 2026, 12:45 AM EDTConviction: 32 / 100Return: -10.71%
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 18, 2020 Someone noticed that when you have hundreds / thousands of cores in a superc...
EPF.Vrightbacktest PROMOTE

A light, non-market post about using many-core CPUs in a supercomputer to create “pixel art” via per-core utilization patterns in Task Manager. No company, product launch, demand signal, or financial catalyst is referenced.

Mentioned: Jun 18, 2026, 12:45 AM EDTConviction: 32 / 100Return: +11.09%
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 18, 2020 Someone noticed that when you have hundreds / thousands of cores in a superc...
LRND.Fwrongbacktest DEMOTE

The provided source contains no market, company, macro, or ticker-specific information (it only states the post/account no longer exists). No actionable investment content can be extracted.

Mentioned: Jun 1, 2026, 3:22 PM EDTConviction: 32 / 100Return: -14.35%Observed price: $2.68
Source: This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
LRND.Fwrongbacktest DEMOTE

The provided source contains no market-relevant content (post/account deleted). No actionable information, catalysts, or claims to evaluate.

Mentioned: May 29, 2026, 3:38 PM EDTConviction: 32 / 100Return: -14.74%Observed price: $2.22
Source: This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
CMIrightbacktest DEMOTE

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 24 / 100Return: -40.02%Observed price: $667.85
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...
CATrightbacktest DEMOTE

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 22 / 100Return: -57.83%Observed price: $909.93
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...
PLUGrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 25 / 100Return: +23.80%Observed price: $4.14
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...

About this channel

Analytical commentator on X (@id_aa_carmack) who focuses on fuel-cell technologies and related equities. Combines engineering-minded analysis (efficiency limits, conversion physics) with commercial considerations like lifespan, durability, and deployment economics.

Subscribersn/a
Videosn/a
Win rate43%
Average return-2.04%

@id_aa_carmack

Unlock the full track record

Follow @id_aa_carmack on X for concise technical commentary and trade-relevant observations about fuel cells and related equities. Evaluate individual posts for specific trade ideas; deleted posts may contain no extractable analysis.

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id_aa_carmack | AI Frontrunner