x@id_aa_carmack
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id_aa_carmack

@id_aa_carmack

Trust score
0 / 100
Track record
0 / 100
Thesis calls
14
Evaluated calls
0
Average return
n/a
Win rate
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Past bets that played out

These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.

Uopen

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
NTDOYopen

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 38 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
SONYopen

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...

Latest videos and market context

Recent source posts from this author. Create an account to inspect the complete persisted research trail.

John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack 6h Sometimes I look out over a body of water and think about pixel shaders — superimposed...

Jul 23, 2026, 9:54 PM EDT

John Carmack makes a reflective comment comparing traditional real-time graphics/pixel shader craft to “gen-AI rendering,” implying a broad industry shift in rendering techniques. No companies, products, or investable catalysts are mentioned.

John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...

Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDT

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

@edoardocontente That is surprising!

May 26, 2026, 8:59 PM EDT

The source text only says “That is surprising!” with no context, event, market data, company, sector, or catalyst. It is not actionable for investment analysis.

@joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...

May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDT

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Proof-backed call history

These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.

Uopen

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
NTDOYopen

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 38 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
SONYopen

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 40 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
MSFTopen

John Carmack and Omar Cornut argue that Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo keeping console SDKs/APIs under NDA limits open-source sharing and raises engineering/compliance burden for small game-engine teams, potentially entrenching large incumbents and increasing friction for indie/mid-tier engine development on consoles.

Mentioned: Jul 22, 2026, 2:30 PM EDTConviction: 42 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 22 Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo keeping their console SDKs behind NDAs has been a real...
METAopen

John Carmack publicly confirms he resigned from Meta and notes his internal critique of the company was leaked, creating negative headlines via selective quotes. The actionable market angle is primarily sentiment/management-execution risk around Meta’s VR/Reality Labs strategy and spending efficiency.

Mentioned: Jun 18, 2026, 12:46 AM EDTConviction: 56 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Dec 17, 2022 I resigned from Meta, and my internal post got leaked to the press, resultin...
LRND.Fopen

A light, non-market post about using many-core CPUs in a supercomputer to create “pixel art” via per-core utilization patterns in Task Manager. No company, product launch, demand signal, or financial catalyst is referenced.

Mentioned: Jun 18, 2026, 12:45 AM EDTConviction: 32 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 18, 2020 Someone noticed that when you have hundreds / thousands of cores in a superc...
EPF.Vopen

A light, non-market post about using many-core CPUs in a supercomputer to create “pixel art” via per-core utilization patterns in Task Manager. No company, product launch, demand signal, or financial catalyst is referenced.

Mentioned: Jun 18, 2026, 12:45 AM EDTConviction: 32 / 100
Source: John Carmack @ID_AA_Carmack Jul 18, 2020 Someone noticed that when you have hundreds / thousands of cores in a superc...
LRND.Fopen

The provided source contains no market, company, macro, or ticker-specific information (it only states the post/account no longer exists). No actionable investment content can be extracted.

Mentioned: Jun 1, 2026, 3:22 PM EDTConviction: 32 / 100
Source: This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
LRND.Fopen

The provided source contains no market-relevant content (post/account deleted). No actionable information, catalysts, or claims to evaluate.

Mentioned: May 29, 2026, 3:38 PM EDTConviction: 32 / 100
Source: This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
CMIopen

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 24 / 100
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...
CATopen

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 22 / 100
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...
PLUGopen

Post notes that fuel cells are not heat engines, so Carnot efficiency limit doesn’t apply; they can convert more fuel energy into electricity than traditional generators. Main caveat mentioned is historically poor lifespan/durability.

Mentioned: May 26, 2026, 8:41 PM EDTConviction: 25 / 100
Source: @joel_kessels @timothycbates @SemiAnalysis_ Fuel cells aren’t heat engines, so the Carnot limit doesn’t apply, and yo...

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@id_aa_carmack

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