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Thesis calls
14
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Past bets that played out

These are the clearest thesis calls with observable outcomes, linked back to the original videos.

AMZNopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 35 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...
GOOGLopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 36 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...
MSFTopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 38 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...

Latest videos and market context

Recent source posts from this author. Create an account to inspect the complete persisted research trail.

max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...

Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDT

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 24m what the hell happened to 5.5 so it started to reply with "Annotation X"? is it a model or ha...

Jul 24, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT

A social post complaining that “5.5” started replying with “Annotation X,” possibly due to a model or harness update; no market, macro, company, or financial information provided.

max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 36m What’s the best coding games for autonomous programmatic invocation mode (like claude-p)? 58

Jul 24, 2026, 1:32 PM EDT

Non-financial social post asking about “coding games” for autonomous programmatic invocation mode (like claude-p). No market, macro, sector, company, or tradable catalyst content.

max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 4h nothing like spending $600 of my own money per month on ai and still feeling token poor 5 150

Jul 24, 2026, 12:10 AM EDT

A social post complaining about spending ~$600/month on AI services and still feeling “token poor.” No companies, products, or investable claims are specified.

Proof-backed call history

These are recent thesis calls tied to original source content where available.

AMZNopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 35 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...
GOOGLopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 36 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...
MSFTopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 38 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...
ZSopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 40 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...
CRWDopen

Post discusses difficulty of auditing ML model weights and the security risk of open models being “Manchurian candidates.” It’s a general AI security/governance debate with no concrete corporate event, product announcement, regulation, or catalyst. Low direct tradability; at most it gestures toward demand for AI security, model governance, and closed/proprietary model preference.

Mentioned: Jul 25, 2026, 3:30 AM EDTConviction: 46 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA 9m How the hell do you audit the weights? The real danger of open models is a Manchurian candidat...
GABCopen

The source is a political comment/question referencing historical actions in Germany (banning opposition parties) and contains no market, economic, company, or policy information that can be tied to a specific tradable catalyst.

Mentioned: Jun 17, 2026, 10:43 PM EDTConviction: 32 / 100
Source: max guy 😐 @GolerGkA Aug 13, 2023 Replying to @Telegraph What's the name of the guy who banned opposition parties in G...
GDopen

Post claims a US–Israel arrangement functioned like a ~50% discount on Israeli arms purchases in exchange for non-compete plus R&D/intel sharing; asserts the deal benefits the US more than Israel and that Israel is exiting; also claims there is “zero cash” flowing US→Israel aside from the discount. No concrete policy document, timeline, procurement program, or named contractors are provided, so tradability is limited and confidence is low.

Mentioned: May 28, 2026, 3:36 PM EDTConviction: 16 / 100
Source: @USSMogger @Osint613 It’s a 50% discount on arm purchases in exchange for a non-compete, R&D and intel. This deal...
NOCopen

Post claims a US–Israel arrangement functioned like a ~50% discount on Israeli arms purchases in exchange for non-compete plus R&D/intel sharing; asserts the deal benefits the US more than Israel and that Israel is exiting; also claims there is “zero cash” flowing US→Israel aside from the discount. No concrete policy document, timeline, procurement program, or named contractors are provided, so tradability is limited and confidence is low.

Mentioned: May 28, 2026, 3:36 PM EDTConviction: 17 / 100
Source: @USSMogger @Osint613 It’s a 50% discount on arm purchases in exchange for a non-compete, R&D and intel. This deal...
RTXopen

Post claims a US–Israel arrangement functioned like a ~50% discount on Israeli arms purchases in exchange for non-compete plus R&D/intel sharing; asserts the deal benefits the US more than Israel and that Israel is exiting; also claims there is “zero cash” flowing US→Israel aside from the discount. No concrete policy document, timeline, procurement program, or named contractors are provided, so tradability is limited and confidence is low.

Mentioned: May 28, 2026, 3:36 PM EDTConviction: 18 / 100
Source: @USSMogger @Osint613 It’s a 50% discount on arm purchases in exchange for a non-compete, R&D and intel. This deal...
LMTopen

Post claims a US–Israel arrangement functioned like a ~50% discount on Israeli arms purchases in exchange for non-compete plus R&D/intel sharing; asserts the deal benefits the US more than Israel and that Israel is exiting; also claims there is “zero cash” flowing US→Israel aside from the discount. No concrete policy document, timeline, procurement program, or named contractors are provided, so tradability is limited and confidence is low.

Mentioned: May 28, 2026, 3:36 PM EDTConviction: 20 / 100
Source: @USSMogger @Osint613 It’s a 50% discount on arm purchases in exchange for a non-compete, R&D and intel. This deal...
ESLTopen

Post claims a US–Israel arrangement functioned like a ~50% discount on Israeli arms purchases in exchange for non-compete plus R&D/intel sharing; asserts the deal benefits the US more than Israel and that Israel is exiting; also claims there is “zero cash” flowing US→Israel aside from the discount. No concrete policy document, timeline, procurement program, or named contractors are provided, so tradability is limited and confidence is low.

Mentioned: May 28, 2026, 3:36 PM EDTConviction: 28 / 100
Source: @USSMogger @Osint613 It’s a 50% discount on arm purchases in exchange for a non-compete, R&D and intel. This deal...
WOSGL.XCopen

Non-financial commentary about “Watch” vs “Agent” having a model of reality and behavior/integrity. No market, macro, sector, company, catalyst, or tradable implication is provided.

Mentioned: May 28, 2026, 2:12 AM EDTConviction: 32 / 100
Source: @wwwwwwxaw Watch has accurate (but very thin) model of reality. But it doesn’t use this model to drive its behaviour ...

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