G

gavinsbaker

I publish concise, market-focused commentary on AI infrastructure and semiconductor implications. Emphasis on inference economics, demand dynamics, and how these trends affect public-market leaders such as NVDA, TSM, and AVGO.

Trust score
0 / 100
Track record
0 / 100
Thesis calls
5
Evaluated calls
4
Average return
+15.89%
Win rate
100%

Past bets that played out

Notable calls emphasize that AI inference economics appear robust: posts argue that Anthropic is generating very high (~80%) gross margins on inference, undermining last year’s ‘circular demand’ thesis. Another highlighted post asserts that ‘orbital compute’ has already been used successfully for both training and inference, citing NVDA as the sole explicit public-market reference. None of these posts include explicit trade recommendations, position sizing, timing, or catalyst details.

TSMrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post argues that the prior (last year’s) notion that AI demand is “circular” is no longer defensible, citing Anthropic allegedly generating ~80% gross margins on inference—implying inference economics are strong enough to sustain/expand demand rather than being self-limiting.

Mentioned: May 19, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 34 / 100Return: +35.06%Observed price: $392.61
Source: @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80...
NVDArightbacktest PROMOTE

Post argues that the prior (last year’s) notion that AI demand is “circular” is no longer defensible, citing Anthropic allegedly generating ~80% gross margins on inference—implying inference economics are strong enough to sustain/expand demand rather than being self-limiting.

Mentioned: May 19, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 38 / 100Return: +12.48%Observed price: $220.61
Source: @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80...
NVDArightbacktest PROMOTE

Post asserts that “orbital compute” has already been successfully used for both AI training and inference, pushing back on skepticism. Only explicit public-market reference is @nvidia (NVDA). No explicit trade recommendation, sizing, timing, or catalyst details are provided.

Mentioned: May 23, 2026, 10:26 AM EDTConviction: 22 / 100Return: +8.36%Observed price: $214.86
Source: @PhilipJohnston @nvidia @Starcloud_ Yes. That has been successfully used for both training and inference. But “OrBIta...

What this channel is watching now

Focus areas: AI compute and inference economics, demand sustainability, and semiconductor supply-side implications. Top-mentioned tickers: NVDA (2 mentions), ANTHROPIC (1), TSM (1), AVGO (1).

Latest videos and market context

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@PhilipJohnston @nvidia @Starcloud_ Yes. That has been successfully used for both training and inference. But “OrBIta...

May 23, 2026, 10:26 AM EDT

Post asserts that “orbital compute” has already been successfully used for both AI training and inference, pushing back on skepticism. Only explicit public-market reference is @nvidia (NVDA). No explicit trade recommendation, sizing, timing, or catalyst details are provided.

@billlee Thanks Bill!

May 22, 2026, 3:17 PM EDT

The source contains only a brief thank-you message with no market, macro, sector, or company information.

@GummyMore Awesome!

May 22, 2026, 1:53 PM EDT

The provided source contains no market-relevant information beyond a generic statement (“Awesome!”). No actionable catalysts, macro/sector signals, company fundamentals, or tradable insights are present.

@BeenThereCap Thank you!

May 22, 2026, 1:53 PM EDT

The source contains no market-relevant information beyond a thank-you message and provides no actionable investment content.

Proof-backed call history

Published short-form market commentary and responses on platform X. Recent posts mix technical claims about AI compute and brief social interactions; most contain commentary rather than explicit investment instructions.

NVDArightbacktest PROMOTE

Post asserts that “orbital compute” has already been successfully used for both AI training and inference, pushing back on skepticism. Only explicit public-market reference is @nvidia (NVDA). No explicit trade recommendation, sizing, timing, or catalyst details are provided.

Mentioned: May 23, 2026, 10:26 AM EDTConviction: 22 / 100Return: +8.36%Observed price: $214.86
Source: @PhilipJohnston @nvidia @Starcloud_ Yes. That has been successfully used for both training and inference. But “OrBIta...
ANTHROPICopen

@TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80... @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80% gross margins on inference it is no longer a defensible idea. @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand...

Mentioned: May 19, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 100 / 100
Source: @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80...
AVGOrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post argues that the prior (last year’s) notion that AI demand is “circular” is no longer defensible, citing Anthropic allegedly generating ~80% gross margins on inference—implying inference economics are strong enough to sustain/expand demand rather than being self-limiting.

Mentioned: May 19, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 30 / 100Return: +7.66%Observed price: $411.07
Source: @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80...
TSMrightbacktest PROMOTE

Post argues that the prior (last year’s) notion that AI demand is “circular” is no longer defensible, citing Anthropic allegedly generating ~80% gross margins on inference—implying inference economics are strong enough to sustain/expand demand rather than being self-limiting.

Mentioned: May 19, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 34 / 100Return: +35.06%Observed price: $392.61
Source: @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80...
NVDArightbacktest PROMOTE

Post argues that the prior (last year’s) notion that AI demand is “circular” is no longer defensible, citing Anthropic allegedly generating ~80% gross margins on inference—implying inference economics are strong enough to sustain/expand demand rather than being self-limiting.

Mentioned: May 19, 2026, 1:33 PM EDTConviction: 38 / 100Return: +12.48%Observed price: $220.61
Source: @TotemMacro @atelicinvest The idea that demand is circular was defensible last year, not that Anthropic generating 80...

About this channel

Contributor on X covering AI infrastructure, inference economics, and semiconductor market implications. Content is analytical and often challenges prevailing narratives about demand dynamics in AI.

Subscribersn/a
Videosn/a
Win rate100%
Average return+15.89%

@gavinsbaker

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Follow @gavinsbaker on X for concise, debate-focused commentary about AI compute, inference economics, and semiconductor implications.